11920 La Cuchilla · San Antonio, TX 78245

$188,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,535 sqft · Townhouse · 191 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot $123/sqft · 7% below area Est $203k · 7% under $90/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Cibola - Upon entry of this new two-story home is a well-equipped kitchen, dining area and family room arranged in a desirable open floorplan that promotes seamless transitions between spaces. The second level showcases all four bedrooms to provide restful retreats, including the owner's suite with an adjoining bathroom and walk-in closet. Completing the home is a practical garage for storage space. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $189k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.0%/yr); 1133 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 191 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,319 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 191 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.07%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,137
• List price: $188,999
• Delta: -6.96%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-30,237
• Equity at exit: $28,180

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-39,816
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78245

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1133
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,883 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$236 /mo · $2,835/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$90
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,767

Max offer price $188,999

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14618 Fowler Rdg San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,776	$1.40	14d	1	0.03mi
11718 Classmore Gap San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1918	$2,100	$1.09	2d	1	0.21mi
2840 Tengyc Bow San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1704	$1,775	$1.04	44d	1	0.25mi
11623 Blackmore Leap San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2106	$1,900	$0.90	23d	1	0.26mi
3111 Lamoka Lk San Antonio, TX	3.0	3.0	1508	$1,600	$1.06	2d	1	0.40mi
3111 Lamoka Lk San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1509	$1,600	$1.06	43d	1	0.40mi
3127 Keuka Park Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$1,950	$1.15	23d	1	0.45mi
2917 Wentwood Run San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,825	$1.11	16d	1	0.54mi
3011 Lindenwood Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1700	$1,955	$1.15	23d	1	0.54mi
2922 Wentwood Run San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2241	$2,100	$0.94	23d	1	0.58mi
11513 Thackery Haze San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2223	$1,850	$0.83	17d	1	0.63mi
3232 Onion Crk San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1168	$1,495	$1.28	43d	1	0.66mi
11323 Pink Star San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1695	$1,700	$1.00	4d	1	0.66mi
3303 Mission Riv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,850	$1.24	43d	1	0.70mi
12126 Sampson Crk San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,895	$1.27	23d	1	0.72mi
11902 Mulberry Crk San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,647	$1.17	43d	1	0.75mi
12141 Pease Riv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1396	$1,595	$1.14	3d	1	0.75mi
12118 Pease Riv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,850	$1.20	12d	1	0.76mi
12010 Mulberry Crk Unit NA San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,850	$1.43	14d	1	0.76mi
11348 Top Hat San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,775	$1.07	43d	1	0.77mi
2546 Just My Style San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1994	$1,775	$0.89	43d	1	0.78mi
11328 Silver Rose San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1691	$1,870	$1.11	43d	1	0.85mi
11323 Simply Spot San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$2,200	$0.98	2d	1	0.95mi
2915 Thunder Gulch San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1994	$1,900	$0.95	23d	1	0.98mi
11215 Aristides San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1520	$1,925	$1.27	4d	1	1.04mi
11306 Amberina San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2100	$1,795	$0.85	23d	1	1.10mi
11306 Amberina San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2100	$1,795	$0.85	3d	1	1.10mi
10943 Livewater Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1812	$1,900	$1.05	23d	1	1.33mi
10919 Livewater Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1812	$1,595	$0.88	43d	1	1.37mi
11556 Mustang Grv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1929	$2,150	$1.11	20d	1	1.41mi
1526 Alaskan Wolf San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1099	$1,400	$1.27	3d	1	1.42mi
2422 Buffalo Pass Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,500	$1.00	43d	1	1.44mi
11727 Black Rose San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,650	$1.25	43d	1	1.48mi
10714 Ranchland Fox San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1844	$1,800	$0.98	43d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $90 · $1,080/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-15
   price $188,999 505-char remark

   Show marketing remark (505 chars)

   The Cibola - Upon entry of this new two-story home is a well-equipped kitchen, dining area and family room arranged in a desirable open floorplan that promotes seamless transitions between spaces. The second level showcases all four bedrooms to provide restful retreats, including the owner's suite with an adjoining bathroom and walk-in closet. Completing the home is a practical garage for storage space. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

2. 2026-04-30
   price $208,999 505-char remark

   Show marketing remark (505 chars)

   The Cibola - Upon entry of this new two-story home is a well-equipped kitchen, dining area and family room arranged in a desirable open floorplan that promotes seamless transitions between spaces. The second level showcases all four bedrooms to provide restful retreats, including the owner's suite with an adjoining bathroom and walk-in closet. Completing the home is a practical garage for storage space. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

3. 2026-04-04
   price $209,999 505-char remark

   Show marketing remark (505 chars)

   The Cibola - Upon entry of this new two-story home is a well-equipped kitchen, dining area and family room arranged in a desirable open floorplan that promotes seamless transitions between spaces. The second level showcases all four bedrooms to provide restful retreats, including the owner's suite with an adjoining bathroom and walk-in closet. Completing the home is a practical garage for storage space. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

4. 2025-11-10
   listed $207,999 New 505-char remark

   Show marketing remark (505 chars)

   The Cibola - Upon entry of this new two-story home is a well-equipped kitchen, dining area and family room arranged in a desirable open floorplan that promotes seamless transitions between spaces. The second level showcases all four bedrooms to provide restful retreats, including the owner's suite with an adjoining bathroom and walk-in closet. Completing the home is a practical garage for storage space. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,596
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,835
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,808
• − Management: −$1,808
• − HOA: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$1,964
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$471
• After-tax cash flow: $1,569/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story townhouse is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with minimal updates needed to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms — Modern flooring improves the overall look and feel of the home.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances enhance functionality and appeal to potential buyers/renters.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features improve convenience and attract tech-savvy buyers/renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms — Modern flooring improves the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances enhance functionality and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features improve convenience and attract tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 96,015
• Household income: $90,029
• Rent vs Own: 31.3% rent · 68.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2466.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 27% White 20% Black 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 53% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% Arabic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.31%
• Current HPI: 234.7931
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.02%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $188,999 LERA
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $208,999 LERA
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $209,999 LERA
• 2025-11-10 Listed $207,999 LERA