Littleton Plan · Elgin, TX 78621

$279,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,891 sqft · SingleFamily · 23 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

On the first floor of this spacious two-story home is a convenient and modern layout seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining room and family room together. In a private corner is the tranquil owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Upstairs is a sprawling central game room made for gatherings of all sizes, along with three secondary bedrooms to provide sleeping accommodations to family members and guests.

Key facts

• Playgrounds
• Swimming pool
• Local shops

Tags

• SWIMMING POOL
• PLAYGROUNDS
• LOCAL SHOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $269,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Littleton plan; New construction plan
• Exterior features: Model home located in Elgin, TX (By appointment only)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan model home (Littleton plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $279,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $267,862.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-130 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,908 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.07%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,862
• List price: $279,999
• Delta: 1.17%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23813 Glowing Embers Dr	0.22mi	4/2.5	1,891 (0%)	1mo	$258,999	$137	89
13317 Winton Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0	1,913 (+1%)	0mo	$286,999	$150	88
23409 Firelight Dr	0.17mi	4/2.5	1,954 (+3%)	2mo	$261,990	$134	85
13413 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,867 (-1%)	1mo	$266,999	$143	84
13301 Winton Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+1%)	2mo	$277,000	$145	84
13313 Winton Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+1%)	1mo	$290,000	$152	84
13401 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.21mi	4/2.5	1,954 (+3%)	2mo	$257,990	$132	83
13320 Winton Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+1%)	1mo	$268,000	$141	83
23821 Glowing Embers Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-12%)	1mo	$245,999	$148	66
23829 Glowing Embers Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-12%)	2mo	$249,990	$150	65
23825 Glowing Embers Dr	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,162 (+14%)	2mo	$258,990	$120	63
12717 Wood Lily Trl	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,149 (+14%)	1mo	$295,000	$137	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $137,923
• Equity at exit: $241,311

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.51×
• Total profit: $413,257
• Equity at exit: $520,396

Cash invested: $75,001 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,179 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,405
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$335 /mo · $4,018/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,343

Max offer price $249,100

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $55	-5% $-37	+0% $-130	+5% $-222	+10% $-315
Rent	-10% $-302	-5% $-216	+0% $-130	+5% $-44	+10% $42
Rate	-1.0pp $5	-0.5pp $-62	base $-130	+0.5pp $-199	+1.0pp $-270

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,965
• Closing costs: $8,036
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R3 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$560	$0.28	22d	1	0.17mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R2 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$600	$0.30	18d	1	0.17mi
23408 Tiny Moons Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$1,960	$0.98	21d	1	0.17mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R4 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$589	$0.29	44d	1	0.24mi
13305 Banquete St Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,995	$1.17	44d	1	0.59mi
13501 Mussel Run Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	17d	1	0.60mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	17d	1	0.64mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	24d	1	0.64mi
17812 Prairie Verbena Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2049	$2,199	$1.07	44d	1	0.65mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	2d	1	0.72mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	24d	1	0.74mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	24d	1	0.83mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	5d	1	0.85mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	18d	1	0.88mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	24d	1	0.98mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,595	$1.38	5d	1	0.98mi
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,500	$1.21	20d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,999 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,999 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,999 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,999 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,999 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   price $279,999 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,999 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,999 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $269,999 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $269,999 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,999 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,999 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,999 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,999 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-03-31
    price $270,999 430-char remark
16. 2026-03-06
    listed $270,990 Active 430-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,149
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,004
• − Property taxes: −$4,018
• − Insurance: −$1,339
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,092
• − Management: −$2,092
• − Depreciation: −$7,792
• Taxable loss: −$6,189
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,485
• After-tax cash flow: $-71/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This spacious two-story home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B