16 Nidzyn Ave · Remsenburg-Speonk, NY 11960

$849,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,055 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 119 Days on market

Built 1991 0.42 ac lot $806/sqft · 16% above area Est $735k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.5/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located just shy of a half-acre, this 2-bedroom, 1-bath ranch offers the perfect canvas for your vision. Whether you’re ready to renovate and make it your own or start fresh with a new build, the potential here is undeniable. Set in the desirable hamlet of Remsenburg, you’ll enjoy a peaceful setting while still being close to beaches, shops, and all the Hamptons have to offer. A rare opportunity to create your dream home!

Key facts

• Half-acre
• Close to shops
• Hamlet of remsenburg

Tags

• HALF-ACRE
• CLOSE TO BEACHES
• CLOSE TO SHOPS
• HAMLET OF REMSENBURG

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $850k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $779k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $773k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Remsenburg-Speonk Union Free School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #389 of 755 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $72k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $66k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (7.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $238k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$116k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($773k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $773,499 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.37%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $735,213
• List price: $849,999
• Delta: 15.61%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
178 Montauk Hwy	0.31mi	2/1.0	1,182 (+12%)	6mo	$675,000	$571	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $407,274
• Equity at exit: $634,731

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.75×
• Total profit: $1,130,237
• Equity at exit: $1,249,553

Cash invested: $238,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11960

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,793 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,457
• Tax from tax record: −$279 /mo · $3,351/yr
• Insurance: −$354
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,637
• Net cashflow: $1,065

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,444

Max offer price $849,999

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $212,500
• Closing costs: $25,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
152 Old Country Rd Westhampton, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$3,500	$2.92	24d	1	0.79mi
21 Summit Blvd Westhampton, NY	2.0	2.0	1200	$15,000	$12.50	43d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $849,999 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $849,999 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $849,999 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $849,999 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $849,999 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $849,999 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $849,999 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $849,999 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $849,999 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $849,999 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $849,999 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $849,999 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $849,999 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $849,999 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-02-19
    listed $849,999 Active 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Located just shy of a half-acre, this 2-bedroom, 1-bath ranch offers the perfect canvas for your vision. Whether you’re ready to renovate and make it your own or start fresh with a new build, the potential here is undeniable. Set in the desirable hamlet of Remsenburg, you’ll enjoy a peaceful setting while still being close to beaches, shops, and all the Hamptons have to offer. A rare opportunity to create your dream home!

16. 2026-02-16
    historical
17. 2025-08-15
    listed $849,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,351 · $279/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,858 · $738/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,507/yr (+$459/mo · 164.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $93,515
• − Mortgage interest: −$47,613
• − Property taxes: −$3,351
• − Insurance: −$4,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,481
• − Management: −$7,481
• − Depreciation: −$24,727
• Taxable loss: −$1,389
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$333
• After-tax cash flow: $13,119/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Remsenburg-Speonk Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3624420
• Math proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $79,972
• Composite: 47.7/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #389 of 755 in NY

Livability — Remsenburg-Speonk

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Remsenburg-Speonk, NY
• City population: 1,346
• Population (ZIP): 1,037

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 9% Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.81%
• Current HPI: 386.454
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Listed $849,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-15 Listed $849,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2022): $3,351 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.