99 Lyell Ave · Rochester, NY 14608

$85,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,722 sqft · Townhouse public records · 231 Days on market

Built 1892 5,259 sqft lot $49/sqft · 47% below area Est $160k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Down unit is vacant and ready for immediate possession. Upstairs unit is currently rented to a very long term tenant $650 per month. Does not have a current c of o, looking to sell AS IS.

Key facts

• 5,259 sq ft lot
• Built 1892
• Listed 231 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $85,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$159,672) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $719 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 9.3% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Rochester City School District (urban): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #589 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 51 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,594/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($41k/yr) (locally 1300% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.7% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 231 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1892 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 231 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1892 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.28%
• DSCR: 2.61
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,672
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -46.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Ambrose St	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,680 (-2%)	21mo	$91,000	$54	72
78 Grape St	0.35mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,778 (+3%)	17mo	$55,000	$31	59
501 Child St	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,617 (-6%)	3mo	$65,000	$40	58
86 Myrtle St	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,798 (+4%)	12mo	$75,000	$42	48
25 Petrel St	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,496 (-13%)	10mo	$111,000	$74	42
33 Sherman St	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,932 (+12%)	18mo	$72,000	$37	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.69% appreciation · 6.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.74×
• Total profit: $65,206
• Equity at exit: $41,570

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.33×
• Total profit: $174,510
• Equity at exit: $66,800

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14608

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,594 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $699/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $719

Break-even live

Break-even rent $683

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 Jay St Unit 2 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1252	$1,045	$0.83	43d	1	0.30mi
629 Jay St Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1193	$1,250	$1.05	19d	1	0.66mi
85 Cameron St Unit B Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1138	$1,650	$1.45	43d	1	0.66mi
649 Jay St Rochester, NY	5.0	2.0	2144	$2,000	$0.93	3d	1	0.68mi
28-30 Carthage Dr Unit 28 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1415	$1,600	$1.13	23d	1	0.97mi
327 Glenwood Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	2012	$1,690	$0.84	3d	1	0.99mi
385 Ames St Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1738	$1,500	$0.86	21d	1	0.99mi
478 Tremont St Rochester, NY	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,500	$1.05	43d	1	1.17mi
260 E Main St Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0–2.0	1144	$2,999	$2.62	3d	14	1.20mi
98 Pierpont St Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1973	$1,295	$0.66	43d	1	1.23mi
1016 Lake Ave Unit 1 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,600	$1.23	43d	1	1.34mi
193 Reynolds St Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1342	$1,800	$1.34	21d	1	1.38mi
48 Thorndale Ter Rochester, NY	4.0	1.5	1700	$1,400	$0.82	14d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 231 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 230 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 229 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 228 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 226 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 225 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 223 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 222 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 221 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 220 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 217 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 216 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 215 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 214 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 213 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    price $85,000 187-char remark

    Show marketing remark (187 chars)

    Down unit is vacant and ready for immediate possession. Upstairs unit is currently rented to a very long term tenant $650 per month. Does not have a current c of o, looking to sell AS IS.

17. 2025-10-30
    listed $99,000 Active 187-char remark

    Show marketing remark (187 chars)

    Down unit is vacant and ready for immediate possession. Upstairs unit is currently rented to a very long term tenant $650 per month. Does not have a current c of o, looking to sell AS IS.

18. 2023-07-11
    soldstatus $59,500
19. 2021-03-01
    soldstatus $110,000
20. 2016-02-09
    soldstatus $28,000
21. 2016-02-09
    soldstatus $46,500
22. 2016-02-06
    soldstatus $28,000 Closed Sale or Rented 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Great Multi-Family investment opportunity. 2 Bed rooms in each unit. Monthly income of $1,115. Brand new Certificate of Occupancy at closing. Long term tenants on leases.

23. 2015-11-10
    status Pending Sale 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Great Multi-Family investment opportunity. 2 Bed rooms in each unit. Monthly income of $1,115. Brand new Certificate of Occupancy at closing. Long term tenants on leases.

24. 2015-09-06
    listed $37,900 Active 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Great Multi-Family investment opportunity. 2 Bed rooms in each unit. Monthly income of $1,115. Brand new Certificate of Occupancy at closing. Long term tenants on leases.

25. 2009-11-24
    soldstatus $23,000
26. 2006-04-10
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $699 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,068 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$369/yr (+$31/mo · 52.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,123
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$699
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,530
• − Management: −$1,530
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $7,705
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,849
• After-tax cash flow: $6,785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester City School District
• NCES district ID: 3624750
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,923
• Composite: 18.98/100
• National rank: #8850
• State rank: #589 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #3482

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, NY
• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 432,803
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 12,792
• Household income: $40,646
• Rent vs Own: 78.0% rent · 22.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1300.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 50% White 25% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, India
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.69%
• Current HPI: 280.2411
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.61%
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+112.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $85,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-10-30 Listed $99,000 UNYREIS
• 2023-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $59,500 Public Records
• 2021-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2016-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $46,500 Public Records
• 2016-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records
• 2016-02-06 Sold (MLS) $28,000 UNYREIS
• 2015-11-10 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2015-09-06 Listed $37,900 UNYREIS
• 2009-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records
• 2006-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $699 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.