Is 8146 Timber Ln NE #406 in New Salisbury, IN a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 4.6% cap rate and $-327/mo modeled cash flow at a $231,900 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 8146 Timber Ln NE #406?

The modeled cap rate is 4.6% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,791/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 40.79

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +14.8/15.0
Cash flow +7.1/30.0
Condition / age +5.0/5.0
Schools +4.5/10.0
Livability +2.8/5.0
1% rule +2.7/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
DSCR +1.3/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$231,900

8146 Timber Ln NE #406 · New Salisbury, IN 47161

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,240 sqft · SingleFamily · 259 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,098 sqft lot 2-car garage $187/sqft · 16% below area Est $277k · 16% under $140/mo HOA · 8% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Kepley Meadows PATIO HOME section of the Kepley Fields neighborhood where CONVENIENCE and EASY LIVING are at your fingertips! A Steve Thieneman Builders development bringing you QUALITY CONSTRUCTION and LENDER CREDIT TOWARDS REQUIRED CLOSING COSTS PAID WITH BUILDER'S PREFERRED LENDERs (excluding prepaids and owner's title policy). These patio homes are an open concept, 2-bedroom, 2 bath home offering all the amenities you desire!! Hosting a SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM that opens to the Dining Area and Kitchen which includes pantry and plenty of cabinets, stainless dishwasher, range & microwave. The Main Bedroom suite includes PRIVATE BATH and WALK-IN CLOSET.

Key facts

Spacious great room
Open concept
Private bath

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $232k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-327 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (20.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (22.8% below list).
Recommended offer: $179k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 56/100 on livability (#624 in IN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
North Harrison Community School Corporation (rural): math 40% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #110 of 301 in IN (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Morgan Elementary School (math 67% / reading 52%, grade B-, #128 of 994 statewide, top 15%, 420 students, 54% FRL); North Harrison Middle School (math 30% / reading 39%, grade F, #167 of 330 statewide, top 52%, 467 students, 49% FRL); North Harrison High School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #197 of 369 statewide, top 57%, 633 students, 44% FRL).
Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 110d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 158 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Harrison County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 259 days — a 12% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $179,142 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 259 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.77% ✗
Cap rate: 4.60%
Cash-on-cash: -6.05%
DSCR: 0.73
GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $276,872
List price: $231,900
Delta: -16.24%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8186 Timber Ln NE #401	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,240 (0%)	6mo	$230,900	$186	73
8171 Wagner Ave NE #55	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,245 (+0%)	6mo	$297,900	$239	71
8067 Kepley Dr NE	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,257 (+1%)	5mo	$245,000	$195	71
8162 Timber Ln NE #403	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,240 (0%)	9mo	$229,900	$185	71
8046 Kepley Dr NE #20	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,245 (+0%)	10mo	$294,900	$237	69
8227 Kepley Dr NE #63	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,302 (+5%)	5mo	$272,900	$210	63
2260 Lone Acres Dr NE	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,222 (-2%)	1mo	$248,000	$203	61
8034 Kepley Dr NE #22	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,377 (+11%)	0mo	$318,900	$232	61
8181 Wagner Ave NE #56	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,377 (+11%)	0mo	$318,900	$232	58
8205 Kepley Dr NE #60	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,360 (+10%)	4mo	$319,900	$235	56
8238 Kepley Dr NE #64	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,377 (+11%)	0mo	$274,900	$200	55
8092 Wagner Ave NE	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,382 (+12%)	11mo	$249,900	$181	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -26.6%
Equity multiple: 0.10×
Total profit: $-58,316
Equity at exit: $34,577

10-year hold

IRR: -23.7%
Equity multiple: -0.19×
Total profit: $-77,171
Equity at exit: $20,050

Cash invested: $64,932 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 24 active
Months of supply: 14.4 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $255,400 ($196/sqft)
Median days on market: 243 d
This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +13.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 47161

Home prices YoY: -10.5%
Active inventory: 56
Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,791 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,216
Tax est. 1.5%: −$290 /mo · $3,478/yr
Insurance: −$97
HOA: −$140
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
Net cashflow: $-327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,206

Max offer price $184,527

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-167	-5% $-247	+0% $-327	+5% $-408	+10% $-488
Rent	-10% $-469	-5% $-398	+0% $-327	+5% $-257	+10% $-186
Rate	-1.0pp $-211	-0.5pp $-268	base $-327	+0.5pp $-387	+1.0pp $-449

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $57,975
Closing costs: $6,957
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8206 Wagner Ave NE New Salisbury, IN	3.0	2.0	1385	$1,899	$1.37	110d	1	0.43mi
8206 Wagner Ave NE New Salisbury, IN	3.0	2.0	1383	$1,899	$1.37	119d	1	0.43mi
7045 Corydon Junction Rd NE Unit 2 New Salisbury, IN	2.0	1.0	800	$1,199	$1.50	76d	1	0.84mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $140 monthly fee

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener2-car garage
Utilities: Public water (connected)Public sewer
Home design: Patio home model by Steve Thieneman BuildersNew constructionSingle-storySlab foundation
Construction: Frame, stone and vinyl siding exteriorShingle roofBuilt by Steve Thieneman BuildersHas home warranty
Exterior features: Landscaped yardPatioCorner lot

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveOvenRangePantry
Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first level (approx. 13 x 11)Main-level primary bedroom
Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsFull baths on the first level
Interior features: Ceiling fansPrimary bathroomMain-level primary bedroomOpen floor planPantryCable TVScreened and thermal windows
Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-23

days on market $231,900 Active 259 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $231,900 Active 256 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $231,900 Active 255 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $231,900 Active 254 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $231,900 Active 253 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $231,900 Active 252 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $231,900 Active 251 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $231,900 Active 250 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $231,900 Active 249 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $231,900 Active 248 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $231,900 Active 247 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $231,900 Active 241 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $231,900 Active 240 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $231,900 Active 239 DOM
2026-09-02

days on market $231,900 Active 238 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $231,900 Active 235 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $231,900 Active 234 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $231,900 Active 233 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $231,900 Active 232 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $231,900 Active 231 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $231,900 Active 230 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $231,900 Active 229 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $231,900 Active 228 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $231,900 Active 227 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $231,900 Active 226 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $231,900 Active 225 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $231,900 Active 224 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $231,900 Active 223 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $231,900 Active 222 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $231,900 Active 221 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $231,900 Active 220 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $231,900 Active 219 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $231,900 Active 218 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $231,900 Active 217 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $231,900 Active 216 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $231,900 Active 215 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $231,900 Active 214 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $231,900 Active 213 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $231,900 Active 212 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $231,900 Active 211 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $231,900 Active 210 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $231,900 Active 209 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $231,900 Active 208 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $231,900 Active 205 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $231,900 Active 204 DOM
2026-07-29

days on market $231,900 Active 203 DOM
2026-07-27

days on market $231,900 Active 201 DOM
2026-07-25

days on market $231,900 Active 199 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $231,900 Active 198 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $231,900 Active 197 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $21,497
− Mortgage interest: −$12,990
− Property taxes: −$3,478
− Insurance: −$1,160
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,720
− Management: −$1,720
− HOA: −$1,680
− Depreciation: −$6,746
Taxable loss: −$7,997

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,919
After-tax cash flow: $-2,009/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new construction home is move-in ready with excellent condition and no immediate repairs needed. Landscaping and interior finishing touches can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Completed landscaping enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
Both Interior finishing touches — Finishing touches like paint, flooring, and furniture can enhance the home's appeal and increase its value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Morgan Elementary School B- IN #128/994 Nat'l #7,252/41,679 Middle North Harrison Middle School F IN #167/330 Nat'l #7,581/14,009 High North Harrison High School F IN #197/369 Nat'l #7,572/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: North Harrison Community School Corporation
NCES district ID: 1800690
Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -16.00%
Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -13.00%
Median HH income: $51,643
Composite: 37.12/100
National rank: #4493
State rank: #110 of 301 in IN

D Composite livability gradescore 56/100

Livability — New Salisbury

Score: 56/100
State rank: #624
US rank: #23062

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: New Salisbury, IN
County: Harrison · 40,288 people
City population: 3,362
Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
Population (ZIP): 3,362
Household income: $84,318
Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 40,288 people
By 2030: 40,265 · -0.1%
By 2040: 39,538 · -1.9%
By 2050: 37,781 · -6.2%
By 2075: 33,200 · -17.6%
By 2100: 26,668 · -33.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
Race & ethnicity: White 100%
Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

2024 margin: Solid R (+47.0) · D 25.6% · R 72.5% · Other 1.8%
2008→2024 swing: -28.9pp toward R · 2008: -18.0pp · 2024: -47.0pp
All cycles: 2024: R+47.0 2020: R+45.6 2016: R+44.4 2012: R+22.8 2008: R+18.0

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -25.82%
Current HPI: 221.0899
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
#125 Cummins Columbus $33.4B #416 Allegion Dublin $3.6B
Healthcare	1	$177B
#20 Elevance Health Indianapolis $177.0B
Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
#100 Eli Lilly Indianapolis $45.0B
Metals / Steel	1	$18B
#179 Steel Dynamics Fort Wayne $18.2B
Agriculture	1	$17B
#210 Corteva Agriscience Indianapolis $16.5B
Packaging	1	$12B
#474 Berry Global Group Evansville $12.3B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2026-01-07 Listed $231,900 SIRA

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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