821 Ash St · Pawnee, OK 74058

$80,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,183 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1968 0.29 ac lot Est $77k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +5.7/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

3-bedroom, 2 bath 1183 SF, built in 1968 and situated in a built-up area of Pawnee. 3 blocks from the high school and Jr high. Do not hesitate to see it as it checks off lots of boxes.

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1968

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $336 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#116 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pawnee (rural): math 16% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #176 of 270 in OK (top 65%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Pawnee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Pawnee County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,600 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.01%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $76,895
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
821 Ash St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,183 (0%)	1mo	$76,500	$65	99
1506 W 7th St	0.21mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,176 (-1%)	18mo	$83,000	$71	68
410 Denver St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,268 (+7%)	10mo	$170,000	$134	60
811 Elm St	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,216 (+3%)	22mo	$45,000	$37	59
312 Hawthorne St	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,177 (-0%)	16mo	$60,000	$51	54
302 Hillcrest St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,034 (-13%)	1mo	$65,000	$63	47
308 Hillcrest St	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,064 (-10%)	4mo	$115,000	$108	45
2009 Reeves Rd	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,260 (+6%)	14mo	$120,000	$95	41
707 Kansas St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,268 (+7%)	20mo	$58,000	$46	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $31,036
• Equity at exit: $35,971

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.59×
• Total profit: $80,482
• Equity at exit: $55,436

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74058

• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,072 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $693/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $336

Break-even live

Break-even rent $646

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   price $80,000
3. 2026-03-17
   status Active
4. 2026-03-13
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-03
   listed $85,000 Active
6. 2026-03-01
   historical
7. 2026-01-09
   price $85,000
8. 2025-12-17
   status Active
9. 2025-12-17
   price $95,000
10. 2025-12-11
    status Pending
11. 2025-11-18
    price $99,500
12. 2025-08-01
    listed $105,000 Active
13. 2025-07-31
    historical
14. 2025-07-09
    price $109,500
15. 2025-06-15
    price $112,500
16. 2025-05-14
    price $115,500
17. 2025-04-01
    price $119,500
18. 2025-03-06
    status Active
19. 2025-02-22
    status Pending
20. 2025-01-21
    listed $122,000 Active
21. 2004-01-15
    soldstatus $65,000
22. 1994-05-13
    soldstatus $52,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $693 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $720 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$27/yr (+$2/mo · 3.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,862
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$693
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,029
• − Management: −$1,029
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $2,903
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$697
• After-tax cash flow: $3,337/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pawnee
• NCES district ID: 4023610
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,841
• Composite: 16.5/100
• National rank: #9184
• State rank: #176 of 270 in OK

Livability — Pawnee

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #116
• US rank: #11883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pawnee, OK
• Population (ZIP): 3,558

Population outlook (Pawnee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,219 people
• By 2030: 16,028 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 15,724 · -3.1%
• By 2050: 15,563 · -4.0%
• By 2075: 15,905 · -1.9%
• By 2100: 16,058 · -1.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Native American 16% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Serbian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pawnee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 19.7% · R 78.6% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+57.5 2016: R+53.2 2012: R+40.0 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+53.8% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $80,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-03-17 Relisted — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-03-13 Pending — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-03-03 Listed $85,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-03-01 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $85,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-12-17 Relisted — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $95,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-12-11 Pending — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $99,500 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-08-01 Listed $105,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $109,500 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-06-15 Price Changed $112,500 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-05-14 Price Changed $115,500 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $119,500 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-03-06 Relisted — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-02-22 Pending — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-01-21 Listed $122,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2004-01-15 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 1994-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $693 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.