409 S Lowell Rd · Jasper, AL 35503

$269,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,725 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1971 2.50 ac lot Est $295k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BACK ON MARKET!! Contract fell through at no fault of seller. This newly renovated home features a new kitchen w/ all new countertops & backsplash, open living concept, hardwood floors, sunroom, a partially unfinished basement, a new screened porch great to enjoy the morning coffee on, all on 2.5 acres of beautiful property. Ideal for tranquil living with modern comforts. Schedule a showing today

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Unfinished basement
• New flooring

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• 2.5 ACRES
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW FLOORING
• INTERIOR EXTERIOR PAINT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $59 ($709/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.8% in Jasper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#228 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Jasper City (town): math 27% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #23 of 129 in AL (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Memorial Park Elementary School (math 50% / reading 68%, grade B-, #67 of 627 statewide, top 11%, 375 students, 65% FRL); Maddox Intermediate School (math 26% / reading 59%, grade D-, #51 of 257 statewide, top 20%, 636 students, 61% FRL); Jasper High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 814 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 42% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 36 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walker County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $228k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,409 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.94%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $294,975
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
409 S Lowell Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,581 (-8%)	1mo	$269,900	$171	81
276 S Lowell Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,750 (+1%)	10mo	$267,000	$153	79

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-40,110
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-30,645
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35503

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,084 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $714/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,009

Max offer price $269,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $212	-5% $136	+0% $59	+5% $-17	+10% $-94
Rent	-10% $-106	-5% $-23	+0% $59	+5% $141	+10% $224
Rate	-1.0pp $195	-0.5pp $128	base $59	+0.5pp $-11	+1.0pp $-82

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   listed $269,900 Active
3. 2024-05-03
   soldstatus $227,500
4. 2024-05-02
   soldstatus $227,500 Closed 405-char remark

   Show marketing remark (405 chars)

   BACK ON MARKET!! Contract fell through at no fault of seller. This newly renovated home features a new kitchen w/ all new countertops & backsplash, open living concept, hardwood floors, sunroom, a partially unfinished basement, a new screened porch great to enjoy the morning coffee on, all on 2.5 acres of beautiful property. Ideal for tranquil living with modern comforts. Schedule a showing today

5. 2024-04-23
   status Pending 405-char remark

   Show marketing remark (405 chars)

   BACK ON MARKET!! Contract fell through at no fault of seller. This newly renovated home features a new kitchen w/ all new countertops & backsplash, open living concept, hardwood floors, sunroom, a partially unfinished basement, a new screened porch great to enjoy the morning coffee on, all on 2.5 acres of beautiful property. Ideal for tranquil living with modern comforts. Schedule a showing today

6. 2024-04-19
   status Active 405-char remark

   Show marketing remark (405 chars)

   BACK ON MARKET!! Contract fell through at no fault of seller. This newly renovated home features a new kitchen w/ all new countertops & backsplash, open living concept, hardwood floors, sunroom, a partially unfinished basement, a new screened porch great to enjoy the morning coffee on, all on 2.5 acres of beautiful property. Ideal for tranquil living with modern comforts. Schedule a showing today

7. 2024-04-02
   status Pending 405-char remark

   Show marketing remark (405 chars)

   BACK ON MARKET!! Contract fell through at no fault of seller. This newly renovated home features a new kitchen w/ all new countertops & backsplash, open living concept, hardwood floors, sunroom, a partially unfinished basement, a new screened porch great to enjoy the morning coffee on, all on 2.5 acres of beautiful property. Ideal for tranquil living with modern comforts. Schedule a showing today

8. 2024-03-27
   listed $235,000 Active 405-char remark

   Show marketing remark (405 chars)

   BACK ON MARKET!! Contract fell through at no fault of seller. This newly renovated home features a new kitchen w/ all new countertops & backsplash, open living concept, hardwood floors, sunroom, a partially unfinished basement, a new screened porch great to enjoy the morning coffee on, all on 2.5 acres of beautiful property. Ideal for tranquil living with modern comforts. Schedule a showing today

9. 2018-09-26
   soldstatus $155,500
10. 2018-09-25
    soldstatus $155,500 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    Great house in a great location! This totally renovated 3 bedroom, 2 bath has a great open floor plan. There is an unfinished basement and house sits on 2.5 beautiful acres.

11. 2018-08-15
    listed $154,900 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    Great house in a great location! This totally renovated 3 bedroom, 2 bath has a great open floor plan. There is an unfinished basement and house sits on 2.5 beautiful acres.

12. 2004-03-25
    soldstatus $123,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $714 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,107 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$393/yr (+$33/mo · 55.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,009
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$714
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,001
• − Management: −$2,001
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$4,026
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$966
• After-tax cash flow: $1,676/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jasper City
• NCES district ID: 0101890
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,476
• Composite: 34.4/100
• National rank: #5204
• State rank: #23 of 129 in AL

Livability — Jasper

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #228
• US rank: #17152

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jasper, AL
• City population: 9,927
• Population (ZIP): 9,601

Population outlook (Walker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,037 people
• By 2030: 58,391 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 53,080 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 48,031 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 37,799 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 29,001 · -52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 2% Black 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.8) · D 13.8% · R 85.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -46.4pp · 2024: -71.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.8 2020: R+67.9 2016: R+67.4 2012: R+52.9 2008: R+46.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.26%
• Current HPI: 172.9286
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+119.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — Walker County Area MLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $269,900 Walker County Area MLS
• 2024-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $227,500 Public Records
• 2024-05-02 Sold (MLS) $227,500 Walker County Area MLS
• 2024-04-23 Pending — Walker County Area MLS
• 2024-04-19 Relisted — Walker County Area MLS
• 2024-04-02 Pending — Walker County Area MLS
• 2024-03-27 Listed $235,000 Walker County Area MLS
• 2018-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $155,500 Public Records
• 2018-09-25 Sold (MLS) $155,500 Walker County Area MLS
• 2018-08-15 Listed $154,900 Walker County Area MLS
• 2004-03-25 Sold (MLS) $123,000 Walker County Area MLS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $714 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.