9999 Pilgrims Trl · Molino, FL 32577

$330,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,617 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 240 Days on market

Built 1986 2.00 ac lot $126/sqft · 44% below area Est $592k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bath home sits on 2 acres in quiet privacy with a covered porch in the front and in the back. The home will need some updating and is priced to accommodate it. There are fruit trees and most of the acreage is cleared and fenced. There is also a garden area and a large shop and wildlife is plentiful because behind the property is approximately 2000 acres of privately owned forest land that will provide privacy for some time to come! Travel time to Atmore is around 20 minutes and to Pensacola is around 30 minutes.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Cleared and fenced
• Garden area

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• FRUIT TREES
• CLEARED AND FENCED
• GARDEN AREA
• LARGE SHOP
• PRIVATELY OWNED FOREST LAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-194 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (10.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (33.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (33.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.5% in Molino — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#224 in FL, #3,540 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bratt Elementary School (math 65% / reading 55%, grade B-, #680 of 2,144 statewide, top 32%, 496 students, 54% FRL); Ernest Ward Middle School (math 48% / reading 49%, grade C-, #274 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 486 students, 49% FRL); Northview High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 532 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 240 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,748 (33.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 240 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.52%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $592,451
• List price: $330,000
• Delta: -44.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10080 Pilgrim Trl Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,279 (-13%)	8mo	$590,000	$259	56
5465 Pilgrim Trl W	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,784 (+6%)	8mo	$655,000	$235	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-66,016
• Equity at exit: $49,204

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-74,140
• Equity at exit: $28,532

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32577

• Home prices YoY: -6.5%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,197 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $744/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,443

Max offer price $295,720

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-7	-5% $-101	+0% $-194	+5% $-287	+10% $-381
Rent	-10% $-368	-5% $-281	+0% $-194	+5% $-107	+10% $-20
Rate	-1.0pp $-28	-0.5pp $-110	base $-194	+0.5pp $-280	+1.0pp $-367

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $330,000 Active 240 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $330,000 Active 237 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $330,000 Active 236 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $330,000 Active 235 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $330,000 Active 234 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $330,000 Active 232 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $330,000 Active 229 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $330,000 Active 228 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $330,000 Active 227 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $330,000 Active 226 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $330,000 Active 222 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $330,000 Active 221 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $330,000 Active 220 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $330,000 Active 219 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $330,000 Active 218 DOM
16. 2026-02-26
    status Active 548-char remark

    Show marketing remark (548 chars)

    This spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bath home sits on 2 acres in quiet privacy with a covered porch in the front and in the back. The home will need some updating and is priced to accommodate it. There are fruit trees and most of the acreage is cleared and fenced. There is also a garden area and a large shop and wildlife is plentiful because behind the property is approximately 2000 acres of privately owned forest land that will provide privacy for some time to come! Travel time to Atmore is around 20 minutes and to Pensacola is around 30 minutes.

17. 2026-02-17
    historical Contingent 548-char remark

    Show marketing remark (548 chars)

    This spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bath home sits on 2 acres in quiet privacy with a covered porch in the front and in the back. The home will need some updating and is priced to accommodate it. There are fruit trees and most of the acreage is cleared and fenced. There is also a garden area and a large shop and wildlife is plentiful because behind the property is approximately 2000 acres of privately owned forest land that will provide privacy for some time to come! Travel time to Atmore is around 20 minutes and to Pensacola is around 30 minutes.

18. 2025-10-24
    listed $330,000 Active 548-char remark

    Show marketing remark (548 chars)

    This spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bath home sits on 2 acres in quiet privacy with a covered porch in the front and in the back. The home will need some updating and is priced to accommodate it. There are fruit trees and most of the acreage is cleared and fenced. There is also a garden area and a large shop and wildlife is plentiful because behind the property is approximately 2000 acres of privately owned forest land that will provide privacy for some time to come! Travel time to Atmore is around 20 minutes and to Pensacola is around 30 minutes.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $744 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,739 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,995/yr (+$166/mo · 268.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,370
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$744
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,110
• − Management: −$2,110
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$8,329
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,999
• After-tax cash flow: $-330/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Molino

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #224
• US rank: #3540

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,881

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.32%
• Current HPI: 323.2275
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2025-10-24 Listed $330,000 PARMLS

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $744 · +31.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.