1246 Herring Dr · Forney, TX 75126

$299,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,338 sqft · SingleFamily · 28 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 6,534 sqft lot $128/sqft · 14% below area Est $349k · 14% under $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21237971 - Built by Starlight Homes - Ready Now! ~ This stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-family residence in the desirable Gateway Parks subdivision offers an impressive 2,338 sq. ft. of modern living space. Built in 2025, this traditional home features an open floor plan designed for comfort and functionality. Enjoy the elegance of granite counters, a spacious pantry, and generous walk-in closets. The living areas are perfect for entertaining, while the cozy dining area provides a warm gathering space. With central heating and cooling, along with a well-maintained sprinkler system, this home ensures year-round comfort. The exterior boasts tasteful lighting, enhancing the curb appeal. Located within the highly regarded Forney ISD, residents benefit from access to Willett Elementary, Warren Middle, and Forney High School. Complete and ready for its first homeowner, this property is a must-see!

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $36 ($432/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (7.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $276k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2179 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $275,613 (7.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.52%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $349,090
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -14.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1246 Herring Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,338 (0%)	1mo	$299,000	$128	99
1282 Herring Dr	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,338 (0%)	2mo	$297,990	$127	93
1553 Sugarberry Dr	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,298 (-2%)	1mo	$350,000	$152	78
1613 Yellowstone Dr	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,358 (+1%)	2mo	$345,000	$146	78
1276 Meridian Dr	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,162 (-8%)	0mo	$315,000	$146	66
1557 Wyler Dr	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,064 (-12%)	2mo	$325,000	$157	64
1560 Seminole Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,020 (-14%)	1mo	$330,000	$163	63
1569 Wyler Dr	0.25mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,568 (+10%)	1mo	$350,000	$136	62
1809 Bachman Ln	0.69mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,237 (-4%)	5mo	$378,000	$169	50
1604 Cedar Crest Dr	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,060 (-12%)	6mo	$355,000	$172	49
1115 Palo Duro Pl	0.67mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,243 (-4%)	6mo	$399,000	$178	48
1684 Pegasus Dr	0.56mi	4/3.5	2,671 (+14%)	4mo	$389,900	$146	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-50,383
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-57,710
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2179
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,756 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,485/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$579
• Net cashflow: $36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,711

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1246 Herring Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2338	$2,995	$1.28	15d	1	0.02mi
1238 Herring Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	1912	$2,450	$1.28	7d	1	0.04mi
1253 Herring Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1906	$2,350	$1.23	43d	1	0.04mi
1257 Herring Dr Forney, TX	5.0	4.5	3131	$3,795	$1.21	20d	1	0.04mi
1237 Herring Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2338	$2,400	$1.03	43d	1	0.05mi
1282 Herring Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2344	$2,995	$1.28	24d	1	0.08mi
1213 Herring Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1876	$2,150	$1.15	7d	1	0.10mi
1210 Lambert Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2338	$2,695	$1.15	24d	1	0.12mi
1560 Seminole Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2020	$2,400	$1.19	12d	1	0.20mi
1557 Wyler Dr Unit 1557 Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2064	$2,850	$1.38	43d	1	0.24mi
1553 Sugarberry Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2348	$2,900	$1.24	15d	1	0.31mi
1593 Kessler Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1868	$2,450	$1.31	18d	1	0.35mi
1260 Meridian Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1960	$2,200	$1.12	2d	1	0.39mi
1304 Meridian Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2037	$2,269	$1.11	17d	1	0.46mi
1644 Pegasus Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2810	$2,795	$0.99	43d	1	0.46mi
1665 Sheldon Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2907	$3,200	$1.10	12d	1	0.53mi
1633 Glacier Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2698	$3,000	$1.11	7d	1	0.60mi
1822 Sandlin Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2338	$2,076	$0.89	7d	1	0.63mi
1818 Sandlin Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2060	$2,090	$1.01	2d	1	0.63mi
1832 Sandlin Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2058	$2,400	$1.17	43d	1	0.63mi
1840 Sandlin Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2717	$2,566	$0.94	7d	1	0.64mi
1804 Sandlin Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2338	$2,151	$0.92	20d	1	0.66mi
1825 Sandlin Dr Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2306	$2,450	$1.06	43d	1	0.66mi
1736 Everglades Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2333	$2,650	$1.14	43d	1	0.71mi
1926 Honey Creek Rd Forney, TX	4.0	4.5	2874	$3,000	$1.04	43d	1	0.75mi
1273 Palmetto Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	3370	$3,000	$0.89	43d	1	0.80mi
1284 Caprock Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2982	$3,300	$1.11	24d	1	0.82mi
1312 Caprock Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2890	$3,400	$1.18	43d	1	0.83mi
1817 Lockhart Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2331	$2,950	$1.27	7d	1	0.88mi
1836 Big Spring Dr Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2680	$2,900	$1.08	43d	1	0.93mi
1829 Pueblo St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,350	$1.29	7d	1	1.05mi
1869 Lockhart Dr Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2300	$3,499	$1.52	12d	1	1.05mi
1874 Purtis Creek Dr Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2212	$3,099	$1.40	18d	1	1.06mi
1816 Pueblo St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2204	$2,350	$1.07	43d	1	1.07mi
1820 Pueblo St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,245	$1.18	43d	1	1.08mi
1876 Lockhart Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2058	$2,950	$1.43	43d	1	1.08mi
1832 Pueblo St Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2060	$2,090	$1.01	2d	1	1.08mi
1888 Everglades Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1961	$3,235	$1.65	7d	1	1.10mi
1848 McCree St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,450	$1.27	43d	1	1.13mi
3111 Marble Falls Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1943	$2,145	$1.10	43d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 916-char remark

   Show marketing remark (916 chars)

   MLS# 21237971 - Built by Starlight Homes - Ready Now! ~ This stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-family residence in the desirable Gateway Parks subdivision offers an impressive 2,338 sq. ft. of modern living space. Built in 2025, this traditional home features an open floor plan designed for comfort and functionality. Enjoy the elegance of granite counters, a spacious pantry, and generous walk-in closets. The living areas are perfect for entertaining, while the cozy dining area provides a warm gathering space. With central heating and cooling, along with a well-maintained sprinkler system, this home ensures year-round comfort. The exterior boasts tasteful lighting, enhancing the curb appeal. Located within the highly regarded Forney ISD, residents benefit from access to Willett Elementary, Warren Middle, and Forney High School. Complete and ready for its first homeowner, this property is a must-see!

2. 2026-04-17
   price $299,000 916-char remark

   Show marketing remark (916 chars)

   MLS# 21237971 - Built by Starlight Homes - Ready Now! ~ This stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-family residence in the desirable Gateway Parks subdivision offers an impressive 2,338 sq. ft. of modern living space. Built in 2025, this traditional home features an open floor plan designed for comfort and functionality. Enjoy the elegance of granite counters, a spacious pantry, and generous walk-in closets. The living areas are perfect for entertaining, while the cozy dining area provides a warm gathering space. With central heating and cooling, along with a well-maintained sprinkler system, this home ensures year-round comfort. The exterior boasts tasteful lighting, enhancing the curb appeal. Located within the highly regarded Forney ISD, residents benefit from access to Willett Elementary, Warren Middle, and Forney High School. Complete and ready for its first homeowner, this property is a must-see!

3. 2026-04-14
   listed $299,000 Active 595-char remark

   Show marketing remark (595 chars)

   Welcome to your next home! As you enter from the covered porch, you're greeted by a flex room. Continuing through the main level, you pass a powder bath and the two-car garage before stepping into the open kitchen, dining area, and family room. A back patio is located just off the dining area. Upstairs, a spacious loft connects three additional bedrooms-each with a walk-in closet-and a shared bath. The laundry room is conveniently located just outside these bedrooms. On the opposite side of the loft, you'll find the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and private primary bath.

4. 2026-04-13
   listed $362,990 Active 916-char remark

   Show marketing remark (916 chars)

   MLS# 21237971 - Built by Starlight Homes - Ready Now! ~ This stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-family residence in the desirable Gateway Parks subdivision offers an impressive 2,338 sq. ft. of modern living space. Built in 2025, this traditional home features an open floor plan designed for comfort and functionality. Enjoy the elegance of granite counters, a spacious pantry, and generous walk-in closets. The living areas are perfect for entertaining, while the cozy dining area provides a warm gathering space. With central heating and cooling, along with a well-maintained sprinkler system, this home ensures year-round comfort. The exterior boasts tasteful lighting, enhancing the curb appeal. Located within the highly regarded Forney ISD, residents benefit from access to Willett Elementary, Warren Middle, and Forney High School. Complete and ready for its first homeowner, this property is a must-see!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,074
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$4,485
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,646
• − Management: −$2,646
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$4,545
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,091
• After-tax cash flow: $1,523/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This stunning, move-in-ready home in Gateway Parks subdivision is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a great opportunity for an investor to capitalize on its current condition and add value through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value
• Both Install energy-efficient windows — Reduces energy costs and enhances curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value ↑
• Both Install energy-efficient windows — Reduces energy costs and enhances curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forney, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $299,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $299,000 Zillow
• 2026-04-13 Listed $362,990 NTREIS