1 Prospect St · Castile, NY 14427

$139,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,478 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1890 0.44 ac lot Est $173k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice 3 Bedroom 2 Bath Home with many updates that have been done over the last 10 years to Include Roof, Furnas, Electric service. Home had a New kitchen within the last 6 years. All appliances are Included.

Key facts

• Yard to entertain
• Private street
• 0.44 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE STREET
• YARD TO ENTERTAIN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Two-story house; Existing construction
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Poured and stone foundation; Blown-in insulation
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Open porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Range hood; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the second floor
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-409/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#792 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Letchworth Central School District (rural): math 52% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #318 of 590 in NY (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Letchworth Elementary School (math 72% / reading 62%, grade B+, #525 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 368 students, 44% FRL); Letchworth Middle School (math 34% / reading 54%, grade D, #363 of 729 statewide, top 50%, 278 students, 49% FRL); Letchworth Senior High School (math 95% / reading 75%, grade A, #369 of 1,100 statewide, top 34%, 269 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 29% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 83 units permitted in Wyoming County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Wyoming County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $117k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $123,658 (11.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.04%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $172,926
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7 W Railroad St	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,583 (+7%)	7mo	$185,000	$117	73
5566 Route 19a	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-2%)	16mo	$96,050	$66	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,337
• Equity at exit: $45,847

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $20,288
• Equity at exit: $59,450

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14427

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,237 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$218 /mo · $2,622/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $-34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,280

Max offer price $133,978

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $45	-5% $6	+0% $-34	+5% $-74	+10% $-113
Rent	-10% $-132	-5% $-83	+0% $-34	+5% $15	+10% $64
Rate	-1.0pp $36	-0.5pp $2	base $-34	+0.5pp $-70	+1.0pp $-107

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $139,999 Pending 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,999 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,999 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,999 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,999 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,999 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,999 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $139,999 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   remarks 272-char remark
10. 2026-06-04
    listed $139,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,622 · $218/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,622 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,839
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,622
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,187
• − Management: −$1,187
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$2,772
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$665
• After-tax cash flow: $256/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Letchworth Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617130
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 14.00%
• Median HH income: $48,908
• Composite: 46.4/100
• National rank: #2457
• State rank: #318 of 590 in NY

Livability — Castile

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #792
• US rank: #15197

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Castile, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,875

Population outlook (Wyoming County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,976 people
• By 2030: 37,826 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 35,585 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 32,841 · -15.7%
• By 2075: 25,920 · -33.5%
• By 2100: 19,082 · -51.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wyoming

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.2) · D 25.9% · R 74.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: -26.1pp · 2024: -48.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.2 2020: R+45.5 2016: R+51.0 2012: R+29.6 2008: R+26.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.73%
• Current HPI: 256.065
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+180.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $139,999 WNYREIS
• 2022-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $117,000 Public Records
• 2022-11-16 Sold (MLS) $117,000 WNYREIS
• 2022-09-30 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2022-09-17 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2022-09-14 Price Changed $109,900 WNYREIS
• 2022-08-13 Listed $119,900 WNYREIS
• 2016-02-07 Sold (MLS) $72,000 WNYREIS
• 2016-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2015-10-02 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2015-08-06 Price Changed $75,900 WNYREIS
• 2015-07-20 Price Changed $76,900 WNYREIS
• 2015-06-04 Price Changed $79,900 WNYREIS
• 2015-05-13 Listed $84,500 WNYREIS
• 2004-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,622 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.