1512 Mainsail Dr #10 · Marco Shores-Hammock Bay, FL 34114

$270,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 966 sqft · Condo public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1983 $435/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your slice of paradise in Naples! This beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom first-floor condo offers comfort, style, and convenience in one of Southwest Florida’s most desirable locations. Step inside to find an updated kitchen featuring modern finishes and ample cabinetry, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious layout is enhanced by custom closets, providing smart storage solutions throughout. Enjoy relaxing mornings or peaceful evenings on the private papered patio, ideal for soaking in the Florida lifestyle. Designed for peace of mind, the unit is equipped with hurricane-impact windows and doors. As a desirable bottom-floor unit, you&rsqu

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Updated kitchen
• Custom closets

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• CUSTOM CLOSETS
• PRIVATE PAPERED PATIO
• HURRICANE-IMPACT WINDOWS
• BOTTOM-FLOOR UNIT
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community pool (community-wide)
• Financial info: Pets not allowed
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee; Monthly association fee: $435 (includes association management, insurance, irrigation water, legal/accounting, grounds maintenance, pest control, reserve fund); Community amenities include pool, tennis courts, pickleball, bocce court, barbecue and picnic areas, sidewalks, trails, and on-site management; Condo hotel community, near hotel/motel, non-gated

Exterior

• Parking: Common parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Security/high-impact doors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable and high-speed internet available
• Home design: Condo (unit in a community of 240 units); Single-story; Entry at level 1; Property faces north; Resale condition
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Lanai and screened porch/porch; Security/high-impact doors; Smoke detector(s); Zero lot line; Paved road frontage; South exposure

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level; Additional bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning with ceiling fans and humidity control; Gas heating
• Interior features: Sliding and impact glass windows; Unfurnished; Tile flooring; Breakfast area; Combined living/dining room; Pantry; Shower-only bathroom with separate shower; Cable TV available; High-speed internet available
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-287 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (18.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $270k).
• Recommended offer: $219k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 900 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $162k; list at $270k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,308 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.22%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 3.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-43,410
• Equity at exit: $58,999

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-41,095
• Equity at exit: $56,832

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34114

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 900
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,768 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $1,001/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$435
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $-287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,131

Max offer price $219,308

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-134	-5% $-211	+0% $-287	+5% $-363	+10% $-440
Rent	-10% $-506	-5% $-396	+0% $-287	+5% $-178	+10% $-68
Rate	-1.0pp $-151	-0.5pp $-218	base $-287	+0.5pp $-357	+1.0pp $-428

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1510 Mainsail Dr #7 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	966	$4,500	$4.66	14d	1	0.03mi
1516 Mainsail Dr #2 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	966	$1,900	$1.97	14d	1	0.04mi
1522 Mainsail Dr #2 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,895	$2.11	14d	1	0.09mi
1315 Mainsail Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	828	$2,075	$2.51	14d	2	0.35mi
1315 Mainsail Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	828	$2,075	$2.51	24d	2	0.35mi
1305 Mainsail Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	871	$1,912	$2.19	22d	2	0.41mi
1305 Mainsail Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	925	$1,862	$2.01	24d	2	0.41mi
1165 Mainsail Dr #603 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	843	$3,000	$3.56	24d	1	0.51mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $435 · $5,220/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $270,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $270,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $270,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $270,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $270,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $270,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    remarks 693-char remark
14. 2026-05-31
    listed $275,000 Active 29 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,001 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,241 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,240/yr (+$103/mo · 123.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,212
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$1,001
• − Insurance: −$6,469
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,657
• − Management: −$2,657
• − HOA: −$5,220
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$7,771
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,865
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,578/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marco Shores-Hammock Bay

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marco Shores-Hammock Bay, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,559
• Household income: $89,334
• Rent vs Own: 15.3% rent · 84.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 550.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 266.5545
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+27.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Listed $275,000 FORTMLS
• 2017-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $162,000 Public Records
• 2015-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2012-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $85,192 Public Records
• 2006-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,001 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.