17347 Flintwood Pl · Anchorage, AK 99577

$286,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,513 sqft · Condo · 44 Days on market

Built 2005 $125/mo HOA · 4% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Embrace serene living in a spacious 4-bedroom townhome in Eagle River, Alaska. Perfect for Anchorage commuters, this home offers unparalleled access to nature, public bike trails, and enjoys abundant daylight. Close to the Harry McDonald Recreation Center, and JBER, it's an ideal setting for those seeking a blend of tranquility and convenience. Experience the best of Alaska. Your new home awaits! Association Info: Association Name: PMSI; Association Phone #: [phone] Dues Include: Sewer; Snow Removal; Water

Key facts

• $125 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2005

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $286k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $422 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $286k).
• Recommended offer: $277k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fire Lake Elementary (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #83 of 156 statewide, top 59%, 229 students, 39% FRL); Mirror Lake Middle School (math 39% / reading 53%, grade D+, #10 of 36 statewide, top 26%, 563 students, 21% FRL); Chugiak High School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #17 of 61 statewide, top 32%, 905 students, 19% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 242 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.5% rent growth), your $80k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 46% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $277,420 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.32%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-7,877
• Equity at exit: $42,644

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $78,785
• Equity at exit: $24,728

Cash invested: $80,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99577

• Home prices YoY: -12.5%
• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,194 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,500
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$358 /mo · $4,290/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$671
• Net cashflow: $422

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,660

Max offer price $286,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $620	-5% $521	+0% $422	+5% $323	+10% $224
Rent	-10% $170	-5% $296	+0% $422	+5% $548	+10% $674
Rate	-1.0pp $566	-0.5pp $495	base $422	+0.5pp $348	+1.0pp $272

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,500
• Closing costs: $8,580
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14847 W Lake Ridge Dr Unit A Eagle River, AK	3.0	2.5	2088	$3,800	$1.82	24d	1	0.88mi
12227 Breckenridge Dr Eagle River, AK	3.0	2.5	1708	$3,800	$2.22	24d	1	1.15mi
12229 Breckenridge Dr Eagle River, AK	3.0	2.5	1708	$3,800	$2.22	24d	1	1.15mi
17139 Coronado St Unit 3 Eagle River, AK	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	45d	1	1.22mi
11906 Copper Mountain Dr Eagle River, AK	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,800	$1.52	44d	1	1.31mi
11712 Galloway Loop #30 Eagle River, AK	3.0	2.5	1471	$2,350	$1.60	21d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr
• Likely covers: watersewersnow removal
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2024-07-30
   status Pending
2. 2024-07-30
   status Active
3. 2024-03-29
   status Pending
4. 2024-03-01
   price $286,000
5. 2024-02-14
   price $296,000
6. 2024-02-14
   listed $196,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,330
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,020
• − Property taxes: −$4,290
• − Insurance: −$1,430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,066
• − Management: −$3,066
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$8,320
• Taxable income: $637
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$153
• After-tax cash flow: $4,910/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anchorage School District
• NCES district ID: 0200180
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $76,447
• Composite: 37.0/100
• National rank: #4523
• State rank: #6 of 21 in AK

Livability — Anchorage

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2553

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Anchorage, AK
• County: Anchorage Borough · 246,594 people
• City population: 218,117
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 28,477
• Household income: $136,900
• Rent vs Own: 19.7% rent · 80.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 315.0

Population outlook (Anchorage County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,993 people
• By 2030: 321,771 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 335,493 · +6.5%
• By 2050: 352,799 · +12.0%
• By 2075: 414,771 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 474,485 · +50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3% Black 3% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Korean 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Anchorage

• 2024 margin: D (+12.7) · D 56.3% · R 43.7%
• 2016→2024 swing: +27.9pp toward D · 2016: -15.2pp · 2024: 12.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.7 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.27%
• Current HPI: 254.3511
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.45%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+45.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2024-07-30 Pending — AKMLS
• 2024-07-30 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2024-03-29 Pending — AKMLS
• 2024-03-01 Price Changed $286,000 AKMLS
• 2024-02-14 Price Changed $296,000 AKMLS
• 2024-02-14 Listed $196,000 AKMLS