2112 Kelly St · Mission, TX 78572

$103,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 952 sqft · Manufactured public records · 285 Days on market

Built 1987 6,899 sqft lot $108/sqft · 54% above area Est $86k · 20% over $17/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great deal home in our vibrant 55+ community, where a lively social calendar and a welcoming atmosphere await you! This spacious 3-bedroom, 3-bathroom, and bonus room residence offers ample room for comfortable living and entertaining. As you step inside, you'll be greeted by an open-concept layout that flows seamlessly from the living area to the dining space, perfect for hosting get togethers. The well-appointed kitchen features modern appliances and plenty of storage, making meal preparation a breeze, including an island that could sit up to 6 people. The bonus room can be easily transformed into a guest room, home office, or hobby space to suit your needs; even a Studio to be income producing if you rent it. This home is loaded with extras like a water filtration system, outdoor storage shed, and RV pad with full hookup that can be rented out. Last but not least, all the way through, it is a 3/4" plywood sub flooring and a recent replaced metal roof. Built to last !! & FURNISHED !

Key facts

• Outdoor storage shed
• Open concept layout
• 6,899 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• WELL APPOINTED KITCHEN
• WATER FILTRATION SYSTEM
• OUTDOOR STORAGE SHED
• RV PAD WITH FULL HOOKUP
• RECENT REPLACED METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $103k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $146 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $103k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.5% in Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#148 in TX, #4,155 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sharyland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #406 of 826 in TX (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 852 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 69% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $712 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 285 days — a 12% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 285 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.08%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $85,537
• List price: $103,000
• Delta: 20.42%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2029 Loker St	0.12mi	2/2.0	980 (+3%)	13mo	$70,000	$71	78
2026 Loker Ave	0.11mi	2/2.0	980 (+3%)	20mo	$80,000	$82	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-9,649
• Equity at exit: $15,358

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-5,316
• Equity at exit: $8,906

Cash invested: $28,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78572

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 852
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,125 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$540
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,711/yr
• Insurance: −$43
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $940

Max offer price $103,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,750
• Closing costs: $3,090
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2113 Amy St Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	784	$875	$1.12	23d	1	0.06mi
716 Ragland Rd #3 Mission, TX	1.0	1.0	651	$925	$1.42	43d	1	0.15mi
720 Ragland Rd #8 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1053	$1,300	$1.23	23d	1	0.15mi
720 Ragland Rd #6 Mission, TX	1.0	1.0	651	$925	$1.42	43d	1	0.15mi
800 Ragland Rd Unit 10 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1053	$1,325	$1.26	43d	1	0.20mi
800 Ragland Rd Unit 9 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	913	$1,150	$1.26	43d	1	0.20mi
800 Ragland Rd Unit 5 Mission, TX	1.0	1.0	651	$925	$1.42	43d	1	0.20mi
806 Ragland Rd Unit 1 Mission, TX	1.0	1.0	651	$925	$1.42	43d	1	0.21mi
2008 Selena St Unit 3 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,450	$1.33	43d	1	0.35mi
2112 Cassandra St Unit 2 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,395	$1.33	43d	1	0.42mi
2105 Selena St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	14d	1	0.42mi
2210 E 1st St Unit 34 Mission, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$850	$1.21	23d	1	0.42mi
606 San Antonio Ave Unit 4 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$895	$0.99	21d	1	0.42mi
606 San Antonio Ave Unit 606-4 Mission, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$850	$0.94	43d	1	0.42mi
606 San Antonio Ave Unit 1 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$850	$0.94	23d	1	0.43mi
600 San Antonio Ave Unit 7 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$880	$0.98	43d	1	0.43mi
104 Sunflower St Unit 5 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	950	$1,550	$1.63	14d	1	0.43mi
2002 E 1st St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1017	$1,300	$1.28	43d	1	0.44mi
513 San Antonio Ave Apt 8 Mission, TX	1.0	1.5	971	$975	$1.00	43d	1	0.47mi
2510 E U.S. Business 83 Unit 8 Mission, TX	2.0	1.5	940	$800	$0.85	14d	1	0.72mi
804 N Taylor Rd Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1020	$850	$0.83	43d	1	0.73mi
804 N Taylor Rd Unit 34 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1020	$850	$0.83	43d	1	0.73mi
400 S 49th St Unit 2 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.5	1080	$950	$0.88	43d	1	0.94mi
400 S 49th St Unit 4 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1080	$1,100	$1.02	43d	1	0.94mi
401 S 49th St Unit 3 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.5	1100	$1,100	$1.00	43d	1	0.97mi
1901 N Glasscock Rd Unit 17-A Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	924	$950	$1.03	43d	1	1.11mi
1901 N Glasscock Rd Lot 61 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	960	$526	$0.55	19d	1	1.11mi
1901 N Glasscock Rd Unit 150 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	800	$850	$1.06	43d	1	1.11mi
103 Yosemite Dr Unit 2 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1116	$1,375	$1.23	43d	1	1.12mi
810 S Taylor Rd Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	957	$1,100	$1.15	43d	1	1.16mi
816 Travis St Mission, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	952	$1,215	$1.28	43d	12	1.26mi
106 S Bryan Rd Unit 13 Mission, TX	2.0	1.0	720	$725	$1.01	43d	1	1.33mi
900 Travis St Mission, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1053	$1,250	$1.19	14d	1	1.34mi
4900 Tyler Ave McAllen, TX	2.0–3.0	2.5	1244	$1,520	$1.22	14d	1	1.37mi
4801 Tyler Ave Unit 2 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.5	1077	$1,750	$1.62	43d	1	1.46mi
4905 Tyler Ave Unit 4 McAllen, TX	2.0	2.5	1077	$1,750	$1.62	43d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $103,000 Active 285 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $103,000 Active 284 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $103,000 Active 280 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $103,000 Active 279 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $103,000 Active 278 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $103,000 Active 277 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $103,000 Active 276 DOM
8. 2025-08-27
   listed $103,000 Active 1009-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

   Great deal home in our vibrant 55+ community, where a lively social calendar and a welcoming atmosphere await you! This spacious 3-bedroom, 3-bathroom, and bonus room residence offers ample room for comfortable living and entertaining. As you step inside, you'll be greeted by an open-concept layout that flows seamlessly from the living area to the dining space, perfect for hosting get togethers. The well-appointed kitchen features modern appliances and plenty of storage, making meal preparation a breeze, including an island that could sit up to 6 people. The bonus room can be easily transformed into a guest room, home office, or hobby space to suit your needs; even a Studio to be income producing if you rent it. This home is loaded with extras like a water filtration system, outdoor storage shed, and RV pad with full hookup that can be rented out. Last but not least, all the way through, it is a 3/4" plywood sub flooring and a recent replaced metal roof. Built to last !! & FURNISHED !

9. 2025-05-03
   historical $350
10. 2025-04-17
    listed $350
11. 2025-03-12
    soldstatus Sold 1009-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

    Great deal home in our vibrant 55+ community, where a lively social calendar and a welcoming atmosphere await you! This spacious 3-bedroom, 3-bathroom, and bonus room residence offers ample room for comfortable living and entertaining. As you step inside, you'll be greeted by an open-concept layout that flows seamlessly from the living area to the dining space, perfect for hosting get togethers. The well-appointed kitchen features modern appliances and plenty of storage, making meal preparation a breeze, including an island that could sit up to 6 people. The bonus room can be easily transformed into a guest room, home office, or hobby space to suit your needs; even a Studio to be income producing if you rent it. This home is loaded with extras like a water filtration system, outdoor storage shed, and RV pad with full hookup that can be rented out. Last but not least, all the way through, it is a 3/4" plywood sub flooring and a recent replaced metal roof. Built to last !! & FURNISHED !

12. 2025-03-06
    soldstatus
13. 2025-03-06
    soldstatus
14. 2025-01-09
    status Pending 1009-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

    Great deal home in our vibrant 55+ community, where a lively social calendar and a welcoming atmosphere await you! This spacious 3-bedroom, 3-bathroom, and bonus room residence offers ample room for comfortable living and entertaining. As you step inside, you'll be greeted by an open-concept layout that flows seamlessly from the living area to the dining space, perfect for hosting get togethers. The well-appointed kitchen features modern appliances and plenty of storage, making meal preparation a breeze, including an island that could sit up to 6 people. The bonus room can be easily transformed into a guest room, home office, or hobby space to suit your needs; even a Studio to be income producing if you rent it. This home is loaded with extras like a water filtration system, outdoor storage shed, and RV pad with full hookup that can be rented out. Last but not least, all the way through, it is a 3/4" plywood sub flooring and a recent replaced metal roof. Built to last !! & FURNISHED !

15. 2024-12-30
    historical Option 1009-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

    Great deal home in our vibrant 55+ community, where a lively social calendar and a welcoming atmosphere await you! This spacious 3-bedroom, 3-bathroom, and bonus room residence offers ample room for comfortable living and entertaining. As you step inside, you'll be greeted by an open-concept layout that flows seamlessly from the living area to the dining space, perfect for hosting get togethers. The well-appointed kitchen features modern appliances and plenty of storage, making meal preparation a breeze, including an island that could sit up to 6 people. The bonus room can be easily transformed into a guest room, home office, or hobby space to suit your needs; even a Studio to be income producing if you rent it. This home is loaded with extras like a water filtration system, outdoor storage shed, and RV pad with full hookup that can be rented out. Last but not least, all the way through, it is a 3/4" plywood sub flooring and a recent replaced metal roof. Built to last !! & FURNISHED !

16. 2024-12-02
    listed $95,000 Active 1009-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

    Great deal home in our vibrant 55+ community, where a lively social calendar and a welcoming atmosphere await you! This spacious 3-bedroom, 3-bathroom, and bonus room residence offers ample room for comfortable living and entertaining. As you step inside, you'll be greeted by an open-concept layout that flows seamlessly from the living area to the dining space, perfect for hosting get togethers. The well-appointed kitchen features modern appliances and plenty of storage, making meal preparation a breeze, including an island that could sit up to 6 people. The bonus room can be easily transformed into a guest room, home office, or hobby space to suit your needs; even a Studio to be income producing if you rent it. This home is loaded with extras like a water filtration system, outdoor storage shed, and RV pad with full hookup that can be rented out. Last but not least, all the way through, it is a 3/4" plywood sub flooring and a recent replaced metal roof. Built to last !! & FURNISHED !

17. 2010-03-03
    soldstatus
18. 1995-03-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,711 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,885 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: +$174/yr (+$15/mo · 10.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 94% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,499
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,770
• − Property taxes: −$1,711
• − Insurance: −$515
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,080
• − Management: −$1,080
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$2,996
• Taxable income: $143
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$34
• After-tax cash flow: $1,718/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sharyland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839930
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $57,792
• Composite: 34.38/100
• National rank: #5214
• State rank: #406 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mission

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #4155

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mission, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 78,024
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 78,024
• Household income: $54,298
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1714.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 85% Two or more races 47% White 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 80%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Portuguese 0%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 22% English-only · Spanish 76%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.35%
• Current HPI: 209.3573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.93%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+8.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-27 Listed $103,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-05-03 Rental Removed $350 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-04-17 Listed for Rent $350 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-03-12 Sold (MLS) — MCALLENMLS
• 2025-03-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-03-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-01-09 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2024-12-30 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2024-12-02 Listed $95,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2010-03-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-03-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,711 · +20.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.