8118 Caddo Rd · Houston, TX 77078

$100,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,226 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 140 Days on market

Built 1946 7,148 sqft lot $82/sqft · 48% below area Est $192k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Land ready for development located in a transforming neighborhood in North Houston. All utilities are included and no flood zone. This is one lot only. Red outline on photos are approximate and are only for visual awareness. Two separate lots available - 7,150 sq ft each. Other lot is listed as MLS#38832163. Lots are next to each other. LOTS ARE NOT BEING SOLD TOGETHER. LOTS ARE BEING SOLD SEPARATELY. TBD2 Caddo Road/ Tax ID: 0810910000181 8118 Caddo Road/ Tax ID: 0810910000182/ House on property is inhabitable

Key facts

• Total frontage
• Fully fenced
• Combined square feet

Tags

• COMBINED SQUARE FEET
• TOTAL FRONTAGE
• LAND READY FOR DEVELOPMENT
• FULLY FENCED
• GATED
• UTILITIES INCLUDED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $587 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,610/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($39k/yr) (locally 780% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.16%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,225
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -47.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8215 Blooming Meadow Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+3%)	3mo	$264,900	$210	64
8206 Vanilla Orchid Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+3%)	0mo	$264,900	$210	62
8414 Rinn St	0.57mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,253 (+2%)	2mo	$190,000	$152	61
7914 Cassie Pine Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,401 (+14%)	0mo	$274,290	$196	50
8410 Rinn St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+10%)	4mo	$169,900	$125	49
8108 Vanilla Orchid Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,331 (+9%)	4mo	$249,990	$188	48
8203 Burnt Orchid Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-12%)	1mo	$249,900	$232	47
10308 Red Orchid Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,401 (+14%)	4mo	$249,990	$178	41
10403 Meadow Saffron Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,406 (+15%)	5mo	$229,400	$163	41
9606 Guest St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,383 (+13%)	4mo	$230,000	$166	38
7827 Laurel Gem Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,401 (+14%)	5mo	$248,990	$178	38
7705 Yoe St	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,388 (+13%)	3mo	$90,000	$65	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.5% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $46,822
• Equity at exit: $42,160

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.20×
• Total profit: $117,670
• Equity at exit: $62,871

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77078

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,610 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,423/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $587

Break-even live

Break-even rent $867

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $644	-5% $615	+0% $587	+5% $559	+10% $530
Rent	-10% $460	-5% $524	+0% $587	+5% $651	+10% $714
Rate	-1.0pp $637	-0.5pp $613	base $587	+0.5pp $561	+1.0pp $535

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8213 Bigwood St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,595	$1.39	45d	1	0.09mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,525	$1.31	16d	1	0.14mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,450	$1.25	16d	1	0.14mi
8126 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,350	$1.17	25d	1	0.14mi
8302 Caddo Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	896	$1,450	$1.62	45d	1	0.18mi
8346 Tidwell Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$1,000	$1.02	45d	1	0.59mi
8350 Tidwell Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$975	$0.99	45d	1	0.59mi
9550 N Wayside Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	896	$1,399	$1.56	2d	5	0.61mi
10314 Woodwick St Unit 1283919P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1496	$3,865	$2.58	0d	1	0.72mi
10708 Lavender Cotton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,150	$1.53	45d	1	0.78mi
8600 Sterlingshire St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	732	$1,050	$1.43	25d	2	0.80mi
8003 Alpine Bearberry Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1696	$2,000	$1.18	9d	1	0.82mi
9222 Hillis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$1,850	$1.23	45d	1	0.88mi
7726 Spinet St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,375	$1.63	9d	1	0.89mi
8006 Lynette St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,475	$1.05	25d	1	0.90mi
9700 Mesa Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	784	$989	$1.26	0d	9	0.93mi
8711 Southwark St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	45d	1	1.06mi
7252 Parker Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,650	$1.80	45d	1	1.19mi
8623 Homewood Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,850	$1.61	20d	1	1.21mi
8623 Homewood Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,850	$1.61	45d	1	1.21mi
8625 Homewood Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	45d	1	1.21mi
7914 Laura Koppe Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,850	$1.32	45d	1	1.21mi
8627 Homewood Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,850	$1.23	45d	1	1.22mi
9110 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	987	$1,200	$1.22	25d	1	1.22mi
9110 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	987	$1,185	$1.20	45d	1	1.22mi
8631 Homewood Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	45d	1	1.23mi
8631 Homewood Ln Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,850	$1.23	45d	1	1.23mi
8213 Linda Vista Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,625	$1.25	25d	1	1.23mi
10750 Nyla Spring St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	20d	1	1.27mi
8216 Richland Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	45d	1	1.33mi
7314 Saunders Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1339	$1,723	$1.29	15d	1	1.33mi
7176 Parker Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1152	$1,200	$1.04	45d	1	1.33mi
8602 Wilkins Oaks Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,775	$1.36	45d	1	1.35mi
9410 Firnat St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	0d	1	1.38mi
9410 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	45d	1	1.38mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 235 Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	45d	1	1.39mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$740	$0.75	45d	1	1.39mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 222 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$700	$0.71	45d	1	1.39mi
8113 Denton St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	45d	1	1.42mi
6822 Leedale St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	978	$1,500	$1.53	45d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $100,000 Active 140 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 135 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 132 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $100,000 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $100,000 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-02-01
    listed $100,000 Active 523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (523 chars)

    Land ready for development located in a transforming neighborhood in North Houston. All utilities are included and no flood zone. This is one lot only. Red outline on photos are approximate and are only for visual awareness. Two separate lots available - 7,150 sq ft each. Other lot is listed as MLS#38832163. Lots are next to each other. LOTS ARE NOT BEING SOLD TOGETHER. LOTS ARE BEING SOLD SEPARATELY. TBD2 Caddo Road/ Tax ID: 0810910000181 8118 Caddo Road/ Tax ID: 0810910000182/ House on property is inhabitable

14. 1993-09-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,423 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,830 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$407/yr (+$34/mo · 28.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,318
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,423
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,545
• − Management: −$1,545
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $5,793
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,390
• After-tax cash flow: $5,655/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,247
• Household income: $39,093
• Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 780.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% Hispanic / Latino 46% Two or more races 15% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 41%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Current HPI: 307.0842
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-01 Listed $100,000 HARMLS
• 1993-09-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,423 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.