14621 W C St · Kerman, CA 93630

$134,950

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1930 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * Investment Opportunity Alert! * * Discover the potential of this unique property featuring * * two lots * * in a prime location! One lot currently hosts * * two homes * * , with one designated as a complete tear down. The second lot is a * * vacant corner lot * * , ready for your vision perfect for investors looking to build a * * 1-4 Plex * * or explore other development options, such as an Apartment Complex (BTV with the City of Kerman). This is a rare chance to capitalize on a dual-lot investment, allowing for creative development in a desirable area. Whether you're looking to renovate, rebuild, or start fresh, this property offers endless possibilities. Don't miss

Key facts

• Two lots
• Dual-lot investment
• Vacant corner lot

Tags

• TWO LOTS
• VACANT CORNER LOT
• DUAL-LOT INVESTMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $391 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.2% in Kerman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#802 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Kerman Unified (town): math 21% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #347 of 517 in CA (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kerman-Floyd Elementary (math 16% / reading 33%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 705 students, 86% FRL); Kerman Middle (math 19% / reading 44%, grade F, #212 of 498 statewide, top 43%, 798 students, 86% FRL); Kerman High (math 16% / reading 49%, grade F, #669 of 1,170 statewide, top 57%, 1,540 students, 84% FRL).
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $934 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,950

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.40%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $2,946
• Equity at exit: $20,121

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $34,343
• Equity at exit: $11,668

Cash invested: $37,786 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93630

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $366/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $391

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,006

Max offer price $134,950

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $467	-5% $429	+0% $391	+5% $352	+10% $314
Rent	-10% $272	-5% $331	+0% $391	+5% $450	+10% $509
Rate	-1.0pp $459	-0.5pp $425	base $391	+0.5pp $356	+1.0pp $320

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,738
• Closing costs: $4,048
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14460 W California Ave Kerman, CA	2.0	1.0	575	$1,500	$2.61	3d	10	0.29mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-02-20
   status Pending
2. 2025-02-17
   listed $134,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $366 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,026 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$659/yr (+$55/mo · 180.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,559
• − Property taxes: −$366
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$3,926
• Taxable income: $2,594
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$623
• After-tax cash flow: $4,064/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kerman Unified
• NCES district ID: 0619490
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $43,953
• Composite: 25.97/100
• National rank: #7326
• State rank: #347 of 517 in CA

Livability — Kerman

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #802
• US rank: #22787

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kerman, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,352

Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 79% Two or more races 30% White 13% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 74%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada
• Languages at home: 35% English-only · Spanish 58% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.49%
• Current HPI: 340.4655
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-02-20 Pending — FRESNOMLS
• 2025-02-17 Listed $134,950 FRESNOMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $366 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.