8 Candleview Dr · Lakeside Woods, CT 06784

$489,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,445 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 173 Days on market

Built 1983 0.53 ac lot Est $629k · 22% under $83/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3Bdrm Home In Southern Sherman In Desirable Lake Community. 2.5 Baths, Family Room,Level Yard. Great For Weekend Or Year Round.

Key facts

• 0.53 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $490k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-190 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $456k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $378k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $378k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sherman School District (rural): math 55% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #87 of 192 in CT (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sherman School (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #137 of 553 statewide, top 28%, 264 students, 2% FRL) — zoned schools at 2% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $52k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $49k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$84k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($431k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $374k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $377,717 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.66%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $628,575
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 Candleview Dr	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,344 (-7%)	14mo	$584,000	$435	74
5 Ledgewood Dr	0.41mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,458 (+1%)	22mo	$531,500	$365	52
8 Ledgewood Dr	0.49mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,542 (+7%)	6mo	$1,300,000	$843	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $254,628
• Equity at exit: $441,341

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.53×
• Total profit: $759,216
• Equity at exit: $951,768

Cash invested: $137,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06784

• Home prices YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,777 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,569
• Tax from tax record: −$318 /mo · $3,815/yr
• Insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$793
• Net cashflow: $-190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,018

Max offer price $456,306

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $122,475
• Closing costs: $14,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2025-03-03
   status Under Contract
2. 2025-02-04
   historical Under Contract - Continue to Show
3. 2024-11-16
   price $489,900
4. 2024-10-04
   price $492,900
5. 2024-09-10
   listed $499,900 Active
6. 2007-05-08
   soldstatus $374,000
7. 2007-05-08
   soldstatus $374,000
8. 2007-04-26
   soldstatus $374,000
9. 2006-03-28
   listed $385,000
10. 2001-03-13
    soldstatus $249,900
11. 2001-03-12
    soldstatus $249,900 129-char remark

    Show marketing remark (129 chars)

    3Bdrm Home In Southern Sherman In Desirable Lake Community. 2.5 Baths, Family Room,Level Yard. Great For Weekend Or Year Round.

12. 2001-01-29
    listed $249,900 129-char remark

    Show marketing remark (129 chars)

    3Bdrm Home In Southern Sherman In Desirable Lake Community. 2.5 Baths, Family Room,Level Yard. Great For Weekend Or Year Round.

13. 1998-11-13
    soldstatus $180,000
14. 1998-11-13
    soldstatus $180,000
15. 1998-08-21
    listed $189,876
16. 1997-09-30
    historical
17. 1997-04-24
    listed $184,000
18. 1991-06-25
    soldstatus $165,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,815 · $318/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,149 · $596/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,334/yr (+$278/mo · 87.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,326
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,442
• − Property taxes: −$3,815
• − Insurance: −$2,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,626
• − Management: −$3,626
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$14,252
• Taxable loss: −$10,880
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,611
• After-tax cash flow: $329/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sherman School District
• NCES district ID: 0904080
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $105,552
• Composite: 56.01/100
• National rank: #2563
• State rank: #87 of 192 in CT

Livability — Lakeside Woods

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeside Woods, CT
• Population (ZIP): 3,525

Population outlook (Western Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 685,031

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Western Connecticut

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 58.8% · R 39.7% · Other 1.6%
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.90%
• Current HPI: 284.0569
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+196.9% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2025-03-03 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2025-02-04 Contingent — Smart MLS
• 2024-11-16 Price Changed $489,900 Smart MLS
• 2024-10-04 Price Changed $492,900 Smart MLS
• 2024-09-10 Listed $499,900 Smart MLS
• 2007-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $374,000 Public Records
• 2007-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $374,000 Public Records
• 2007-04-26 Sold (MLS) $374,000 Smart MLS
• 2006-03-28 Listed $385,000 Smart MLS
• 2001-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $249,900 Public Records
• 2001-03-12 Sold (MLS) $249,900 Smart MLS
• 2001-01-29 Listed $249,900 Smart MLS
• 1998-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 1998-11-13 Sold (MLS) $180,000 Smart MLS
• 1998-08-21 Listed $189,876 Smart MLS
• 1997-09-30 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 1997-04-24 Listed $184,000 Smart MLS
• 1991-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2023): $3,815 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.