5215 Grace Point Ln · Houston, TX 77048

$100,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1970 6,381 sqft lot $126/sqft · 27% below area Est $173k · 42% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Single-story home located in Crestmont Park offering approximately 1,000 sq ft (estimate). The property features a 2-bedroom, 1-bath layout and sits on a generous lot. Home is in need of updating and is being sold as-is, making it ideal for investors or buyers looking for a diy project. Windows on the south side of the home have been replaced. Convenient access to major thoroughfares and the Medical Center South area. Buyer to independently verify square footage, room dimensions, and condition.

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Convenient access
• Windows replaced

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• GENEROUS LOT
• WINDOWS REPLACED
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $278 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 305 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.91%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,716
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -42.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.61% appreciation · 1.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $25,381
• Equity at exit: $42,794

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.33×
• Total profit: $65,196
• Equity at exit: $64,312

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77048

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 305
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,325 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,432/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $973

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $335	-5% $306	+0% $278	+5% $250	+10% $221
Rent	-10% $173	-5% $226	+0% $278	+5% $330	+10% $383
Rate	-1.0pp $328	-0.5pp $303	base $278	+0.5pp $252	+1.0pp $226

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,113	$1.05	4d	1	0.58mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,114	$1.05	0d	1	0.58mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 421 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,089	$1.03	6d	1	0.58mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 5659 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,113	$1.05	12d	1	0.58mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,089	$1.03	9d	1	0.58mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,073	$1.01	0d	1	0.58mi
11911 Martin Luther King Junior Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	701	$1,050	$1.50	9d	1	0.66mi
11917 Martin Luther King Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	805	$1,025	$1.27	20d	1	0.77mi
11917 Martin Luther King Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	805	$1,025	$1.27	23d	1	0.77mi
4322 Groton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	858	$1,395	$1.63	45d	1	0.87mi
5425 E Orem Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	910	$1,499	$1.65	0d	13	1.05mi
4923 Paula St Apt 2 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	4d	1	1.11mi
5038 Carmen St Apt 1 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	4d	1	1.16mi
5010 Carmen St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	45d	1	1.19mi
5042 Mallow St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$995	$1.48	6d	1	1.35mi
6160 Madden Ln Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	911	$1,209	$1.33	0d	266	1.42mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $100,000 Pending 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $100,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $100,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $130,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $130,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $130,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $130,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-04-13
   status Active 499-char remark

   Show marketing remark (499 chars)

   Single-story home located in Crestmont Park offering approximately 1,000 sq ft (estimate). The property features a 2-bedroom, 1-bath layout and sits on a generous lot. Home is in need of updating and is being sold as-is, making it ideal for investors or buyers looking for a diy project. Windows on the south side of the home have been replaced. Convenient access to major thoroughfares and the Medical Center South area. Buyer to independently verify square footage, room dimensions, and condition.

9. 2026-02-25
   status Pending 499-char remark

   Show marketing remark (499 chars)

   Single-story home located in Crestmont Park offering approximately 1,000 sq ft (estimate). The property features a 2-bedroom, 1-bath layout and sits on a generous lot. Home is in need of updating and is being sold as-is, making it ideal for investors or buyers looking for a diy project. Windows on the south side of the home have been replaced. Convenient access to major thoroughfares and the Medical Center South area. Buyer to independently verify square footage, room dimensions, and condition.

10. 2026-02-19
    status Pending 499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    Single-story home located in Crestmont Park offering approximately 1,000 sq ft (estimate). The property features a 2-bedroom, 1-bath layout and sits on a generous lot. Home is in need of updating and is being sold as-is, making it ideal for investors or buyers looking for a diy project. Windows on the south side of the home have been replaced. Convenient access to major thoroughfares and the Medical Center South area. Buyer to independently verify square footage, room dimensions, and condition.

11. 2026-02-09
    listed $130,000 Active 499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    Single-story home located in Crestmont Park offering approximately 1,000 sq ft (estimate). The property features a 2-bedroom, 1-bath layout and sits on a generous lot. Home is in need of updating and is being sold as-is, making it ideal for investors or buyers looking for a diy project. Windows on the south side of the home have been replaced. Convenient access to major thoroughfares and the Medical Center South area. Buyer to independently verify square footage, room dimensions, and condition.

12. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,432 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,432 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,899
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$2,432
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,272
• − Management: −$1,272
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $1,913
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$459
• After-tax cash flow: $2,876/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,151
• Household income: $56,747
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1117.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Current HPI: 266.4468
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $130,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,432 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.