629 Ezekiel Smith St · Prairie View, TX 77484

$162,990

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 321 Days on market

Built 1970 0.41 ac lot $121/sqft · 47% below area Est $309k · 47% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This exceptional investment opportunity is ideally located just minutes from Prairie View A&M University, making it a prime choice for prospective renters or future developments. Situated on a spacious corner lot of approximately 18,000 square feet, this property offers ample space and potential for various uses. The interior room measurements are estimated, providing flexibility in design and layout options to suit your needs. Whether you are looking to expand your real estate portfolio or invest in a property with great rental demand, this location offers both convenience and potential for significant returns. Don’t miss the chance to capitalize on this outstanding opportunity!

Key facts

• Huge corner lot
• 0.41 acre lot
• Built 1970

Tags

• HUGE CORNER LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $163k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $305 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $163k).
• Recommended offer: $143k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 0.4% in Prairie View — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,428 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: housing C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1183 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 321 days — a 12% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,431 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 321 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.03%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $309,081
• List price: $162,990
• Delta: -47.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
519 Marigold Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,417 (+5%)	12mo	$298,999	$211	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-12,048
• Equity at exit: $24,302

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-5,112
• Equity at exit: $14,092

Cash invested: $45,637 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77484

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 1183
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,732 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$855
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,681/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,345

Max offer price $162,990

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,748
• Closing costs: $4,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
702 Santee Hempstead, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	568	$1,325	$2.33	1d	11	1.02mi
625 Elm St Hempstead, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	787	$1,855	$2.36	1d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-07-27
   price $162,990 702-char remark

   Show marketing remark (702 chars)

   This exceptional investment opportunity is ideally located just minutes from Prairie View A&M University, making it a prime choice for prospective renters or future developments. Situated on a spacious corner lot of approximately 18,000 square feet, this property offers ample space and potential for various uses. The interior room measurements are estimated, providing flexibility in design and layout options to suit your needs. Whether you are looking to expand your real estate portfolio or invest in a property with great rental demand, this location offers both convenience and potential for significant returns. Don’t miss the chance to capitalize on this outstanding opportunity!

2. 2025-07-12
   listed $203,500 Active 702-char remark

   Show marketing remark (702 chars)

   This exceptional investment opportunity is ideally located just minutes from Prairie View A&M University, making it a prime choice for prospective renters or future developments. Situated on a spacious corner lot of approximately 18,000 square feet, this property offers ample space and potential for various uses. The interior room measurements are estimated, providing flexibility in design and layout options to suit your needs. Whether you are looking to expand your real estate portfolio or invest in a property with great rental demand, this location offers both convenience and potential for significant returns. Don’t miss the chance to capitalize on this outstanding opportunity!

3. 1999-01-05
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,681 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,983 · $249/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,302/yr (+$108/mo · 77.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,782
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,130
• − Property taxes: −$1,681
• − Insurance: −$815
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,663
• − Management: −$1,663
• − Depreciation: −$4,742
• Taxable income: $1,089
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$261
• After-tax cash flow: $3,403/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Prairie View

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #1428
• US rank: #24407

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Prairie View, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 6,060
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,348
• Household income: $81,250
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 270.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
• Current HPI: 397.85
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-27 Price Changed $162,990 HARMLS
• 2025-07-12 Listed $203,500 HARMLS
• 1999-01-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,681 · +18.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.