108 Millwood Rd · Lavon, TX 75166

$255,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,237 sqft · SingleFamily · 138 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,600 sqft lot $207/sqft · 12% below area Est $290k · 12% under $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21165863 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - Ready Now! ~ The Ash is designed to cultivate serenity. The wide front porch entices you to drink coffee al fresco in the mornings before heading indoors for breakfast. There's plenty of counterspace in the kitchen for you to spread out and chop some veggies for the perfect frittata. You have most of the day free, so why not use that extra time to exercise in the home gym you set up in one of the three bedrooms? Afterward, curl up with your favorite book in the generously sized family room. Guests are coming over for dinner later, but for now you have all the time in the world!

Key facts

• 4,600 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $256k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-174 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.5% in Lavon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 640 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,639 (12.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.81%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $290,284
• List price: $255,990
• Delta: -8.37%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
978 Hazel Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-0%)	7mo	$254,990	$207	68
965 Dahlia Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-0%)	2mo	$259,990	$211	66
913 Hazel Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-0%)	8mo	$269,900	$219	66
921 Dayflower Ct	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,270 (+3%)	11mo	$286,212	$225	57
933 Tulip Trl	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+8%)	11mo	$274,990	$206	56
965 Tulip Trl	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+8%)	12mo	$279,900	$210	55
954 Hazel Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+8%)	9mo	$279,900	$210	54
971 Hazel Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+8%)	8mo	$274,990	$206	54
971 Dahlia Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+8%)	2mo	$270,990	$203	53
947 Dahlia Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+8%)	3mo	$269,990	$202	52
935 Dahlia Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+8%)	6mo	$264,990	$198	50
922 Dahlia Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+8%)	7mo	$264,990	$198	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-52,397
• Equity at exit: $38,169

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-59,283
• Equity at exit: $22,133

Cash invested: $71,677 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75166

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 640
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,246 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,342
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$320 /mo · $3,840/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-174

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,466

Max offer price $230,863

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3	-5% $-85	+0% $-174	+5% $-262	+10% $-351
Rent	-10% $-351	-5% $-262	+0% $-174	+5% $-85	+10% $4
Rate	-1.0pp $-45	-0.5pp $-109	base $-174	+0.5pp $-240	+1.0pp $-307

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,998
• Closing costs: $7,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
772 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,850	$1.27	44d	1	0.77mi
787 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1429	$1,900	$1.33	44d	1	0.79mi
872 Sunflower Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1237	$2,000	$1.62	8d	1	1.20mi
360 Elevon Pkwy Unit 2102 Lavon, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,399	$1.16	0d	1	1.23mi
200 Villas Dr Lavon, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	873	$1,918	$2.20	0d	5	1.44mi
151 Villas Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	871	$2,345	$2.69	0d	104	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr
• Likely covers: gym

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $255,990 Active 138 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,990 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,990 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,990 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,990 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,990 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,990 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,990 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,990 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $265,990 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $265,990 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,990 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,990 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,990 Active 118 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,990 Active 117 DOM
16. 2026-01-29
    listed $267,990 Active 634-char remark

    Show marketing remark (634 chars)

    MLS# 21165863 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - Ready Now! ~ The Ash is designed to cultivate serenity. The wide front porch entices you to drink coffee al fresco in the mornings before heading indoors for breakfast. There's plenty of counterspace in the kitchen for you to spread out and chop some veggies for the perfect frittata. You have most of the day free, so why not use that extra time to exercise in the home gym you set up in one of the three bedrooms? Afterward, curl up with your favorite book in the generously sized family room. Guests are coming over for dinner later, but for now you have all the time in the world!

17. 2026-01-12
    listed $267,990 Active 571-char remark

    Show marketing remark (571 chars)

    The Ash is designed to cultivate serenity. The wide front porch entices you to drink coffee al fresco in the mornings before heading indoors for breakfast. There's plenty of counterspace in the kitchen for you to spread out and chop some veggies for the perfect frittata. You have most of the day free, so why not use that extra time to exercise in the home gym you set up in one of the three bedrooms? Afterward, curl up with your favorite book in the generously sized family room. Guests are coming over for dinner later, but for now you have all the time in the world!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,957
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,339
• − Property taxes: −$3,840
• − Insurance: −$2,782
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,157
• − Management: −$2,157
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$7,447
• Taxable loss: −$6,413
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,539
• After-tax cash flow: $-545/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value
• Both Add a smart home system — Modern technology can increase property value and convenience

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Modern technology can increase property value and convenience ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lavon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 6,989
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,989
• Household income: $132,101
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 41.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
• Current HPI: 221.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-29 Listed $267,990 NTREIS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $267,990 Zillow