512 Windsong Dr · Rincon, GA 31326

$300,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,354 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 2009 8,276 sqft lot Est $412k · 27% under $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely home with many,many upgrades, granite, freshly painted, new stainless appliances. Large master, master bath & master closet. Huge kitchen, flat ceilings, upgraded wood shed, privacy fence, stone tiled patio.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Efficient commute
• Eat in kitchen

Tags

• TWO STORY HOME
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• PRIVACY FENCE
• UNCOVERED PATIO
• EFFICIENT COMMUTE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Hwy 21, turn onto Ft Howard Rd, turn left into Windsong. Go right then turn left onto Windsong Dr. Home at end on left.
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $100 (about $8.33/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water service; Public sewer service; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Underground utilities; Public water; Public sewer; R-6 zoning; Subdivision: Windsong

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump and electric heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-893/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.5% in Rincon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#109 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Effingham County (rural): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #16 of 174 in GA (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 264 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 836 units permitted in Effingham County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Effingham County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $157k; list at $300k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,973 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.06%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $411,950
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
312 Windmill Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,416 (+3%)	15mo	$318,000	$132	71
145 Sweetwater Cir	0.26mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,207 (-6%)	7mo	$435,000	$197	66
148 Sweetwater Cir	0.25mi	4/3.0	2,648 (+12%)	3mo	$515,000	$194	65
216 Market St	0.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,193 (-7%)	5mo	$305,000	$139	64
419 Flint Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,232 (-5%)	5mo	$295,000	$132	63
303 Aspen Arbor	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,234 (-5%)	4mo	$282,700	$127	57
174 Sweetwater Cir	0.29mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,608 (+11%)	16mo	$456,000	$175	48
115 Sweetwood Cir	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,103 (-11%)	13mo	$419,900	$200	46
212 Bay Berry Ln	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,194 (-7%)	15mo	$322,400	$147	46
106 Sweetwood Cir	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,103 (-11%)	14mo	$439,900	$209	44
120 St. Andrews Rd	0.66mi	4/2.0	2,027 (-14%)	1mo	$428,500	$211	41
105 Fox Trce	0.59mi	4/2.0	2,080 (-12%)	12mo	$319,900	$154	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-56,919
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-69,879
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31326

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,420 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$280 /mo · $3,357/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,514

Max offer price $286,858

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $95	-5% $11	+0% $-74	+5% $-159	+10% $-244
Rent	-10% $-266	-5% $-170	+0% $-74	+5% $21	+10% $117
Rate	-1.0pp $77	-0.5pp $2	base $-74	+0.5pp $-152	+1.0pp $-231

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
408 Seabreeze Dr Rincon, GA	4.0	2.5	1928	$2,250	$1.17	24d	1	0.06mi
506 Windsong Dr Rincon, GA	4.0	2.5	1928	$2,199	$1.14	45d	1	0.07mi
162 Barfield Way Rincon, GA	3.0	2.5	1680	$1,800	$1.07	15d	1	0.33mi
176 Barfield Way Rincon, GA	3.0	2.5	1745	$1,800	$1.03	24d	1	0.34mi
440 Weisenbaker Rd Rincon, GA	3.0	1.0	1614	$2,000	$1.24	45d	1	0.86mi
434 Roberts Way Rincon, GA	5.0	3.0	2251	$2,500	$1.11	45d	1	1.01mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   price $300,000
3. 2026-03-03
   listed $310,000 Active
4. 2015-03-09
   soldstatus $156,900
5. 2015-02-26
   soldstatus $156,880 218-char remark

   Show marketing remark (218 chars)

   Lovely home with many,many upgrades, granite, freshly painted, new stainless appliances. Large master, master bath & master closet. Huge kitchen, flat ceilings, upgraded wood shed, privacy fence, stone tiled patio.

6. 2014-04-04
   listed $175,000 218-char remark

   Show marketing remark (218 chars)

   Lovely home with many,many upgrades, granite, freshly painted, new stainless appliances. Large master, master bath & master closet. Huge kitchen, flat ceilings, upgraded wood shed, privacy fence, stone tiled patio.

7. 2009-10-22
   soldstatus $168,900 226-char remark

   Show marketing remark (226 chars)

   Close to shopping, schools, and I-95. SPACIOUS 2329 SQ. FT. HOMES W/ 4 BR/2.5 BA INCLUDES LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM, MASTER BR W/ CATHEDRAL CEILING, UPGRADED KITCHEN CABINETS AND CARPETING, GARAGE DOOR OPENER AND FENCED IN BACKYARD.

8. 2009-06-19
   listed $168,900 226-char remark

   Show marketing remark (226 chars)

   Close to shopping, schools, and I-95. SPACIOUS 2329 SQ. FT. HOMES W/ 4 BR/2.5 BA INCLUDES LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM, MASTER BR W/ CATHEDRAL CEILING, UPGRADED KITCHEN CABINETS AND CARPETING, GARAGE DOOR OPENER AND FENCED IN BACKYARD.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,357 · $280/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,357 · $280/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,037
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$3,357
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,323
• − Management: −$2,323
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$6,094
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,463
• After-tax cash flow: $570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Effingham County
• NCES district ID: 1301980
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,503
• Composite: 42.56/100
• National rank: #3195
• State rank: #16 of 174 in GA

Livability — Rincon

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #8380

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rincon, GA
• County: Effingham County · 68,439 people
• City population: 23,940
• Metro: Savannah, GA
• Population (ZIP): 23,940
• Household income: $83,145
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 503.0

Population outlook (Effingham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 67,399 people
• By 2030: 72,297 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 81,602 · +21.1%
• By 2050: 89,494 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 105,976 · +57.2%
• By 2100: 111,943 · +66.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Effingham

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.1) · D 25.2% · R 74.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.6pp toward D · 2008: -50.7pp · 2024: -49.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.1 2020: R+49.5 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+50.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.63%
• Current HPI: 219.0064
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.52%
• Metro: Savannah, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+77.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $300,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $310,000 Hive MLS
• 2015-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $156,900 Public Records
• 2015-02-26 Sold (MLS) $156,880 GAMLS
• 2014-04-04 Listed $175,000 GAMLS
• 2009-10-22 Sold (MLS) $168,900 Hive MLS
• 2009-06-19 Listed $168,900 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,357 · +27.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.