488 Ash St · Strasburg, VA 22657

$170,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 439 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1900 5,401 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

TWO BEDROOM ONE BATH HOME WITH NEW ROOF, REPLACEMENT WINDOWNS, NEW FLOORING THROUGH OUT ENTIRE HOME. LARGE YARD AND SHED ELECTRIC AND WATER ARE OFF (WINTERIZED). MAKE IT YOUR OWN SOLD "AS IS"

Key facts

• Shed
• New flooring
• Large yard

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• NEW FLOORING
• LARGE YARD
• SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Off-street parking; On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service available; Electric hot water
• Home design: Detached property; Single-story entry (main-level living)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asbestos shingle roof; Slab foundation; Building winterized; Estimated year built
• Exterior features: Detached shed; Not in a federal flood zone; Above-grade and below-grade structures indicated

Interior

• Kitchen: Water heater; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (oil); Window air conditioning units (electric)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups on the main floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.2% in Strasburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#175 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Shenandoah County Public School District (town): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #91 of 131 in VA (top 70%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 224 units permitted in Shenandoah County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.5%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shenandoah County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,664 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.28%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-15,620
• Equity at exit: $29,313

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-16
• Equity at exit: $21,602

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22657

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,447 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $607/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,282

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $170,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $170,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 191-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $170,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $607 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,394 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: +$787/yr (+$66/mo · 129.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,360
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$607
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,389
• − Management: −$1,389
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$1,343
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$322
• After-tax cash flow: $1,882/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shenandoah County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103510
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,207
• Composite: 44.42/100
• National rank: #2811
• State rank: #91 of 131 in VA

Livability — Strasburg

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #175
• US rank: #5404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Strasburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 12,047

Population outlook (Shenandoah County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,891 people
• By 2030: 45,630 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 46,708 · +4.0%
• By 2050: 47,072 · +4.9%
• By 2075: 47,418 · +5.6%
• By 2100: 43,707 · -2.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shenandoah

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.2) · D 28.4% · R 70.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: -26.5pp · 2024: -42.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.2 2020: R+40.6 2016: R+43.3 2012: R+31.4 2008: R+26.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.48%
• Current HPI: 368.0984
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+6.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $170,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $170,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-04 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-04 Listed $170,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $607 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.