1405 Lake Dr · Lisbon, FL 32735

$189,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2005

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Land owned, big corner lot. Gated entry. Pool, golf course, clubhouse per HOA dues.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Big corner lot
• Pool

Tags

• BIG CORNER LOT
• GATED ENTRY
• POOL
• GOLF COURSE
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $201 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (7.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 5.3% in Lisbon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#642 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Umatilla Elementary School (math 59% / reading 56%, grade C+, #764 of 2,144 statewide, top 36%, 660 students, 55% FRL); Tavares Middle School (math 43% / reading 40%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 1,070 students, 58% FRL); Tavares High School (math 32% / reading 40%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,507 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $132k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,257 (7.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.55%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-17,893
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $666
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32735

• Home prices YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,743 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,272/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $201

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,488

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $308	-5% $254	+0% $201	+5% $147	+10% $94
Rent	-10% $63	-5% $132	+0% $201	+5% $270	+10% $338
Rate	-1.0pp $296	-0.5pp $249	base $201	+0.5pp $152	+1.0pp $102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $189,000 Active
2. 2022-08-30
   soldstatus $132,000
3. 2022-08-22
   soldstatus $132,000
4. 2022-08-22
   listed $132,000
5. 1981-12-01
   soldstatus $8,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,272 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,569 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$297/yr (+$25/mo · 23.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,911
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,272
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,673
• − Management: −$1,673
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$737
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$177
• After-tax cash flow: $2,586/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lisbon

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #642
• US rank: #12649

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 21,867
• Population (ZIP): 5,346

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 8% Black 7% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Danish 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.00%
• Current HPI: 267.8376
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2023.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $189,000 FSBO.com
• 2022-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $132,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-22 Listed $132,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-22 Sold (MLS) $132,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1981-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $8,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+20.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,272 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.