473 Lake View Dr · Zavalla, TX 75949

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · Manufactured public records

Built 1992 0.50 ac lot Est $125k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• ARV discount +3.8/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Fisherman's delight! This 1,300 sq. ft. double-wide near Hanks Creek marina is move-in ready and full of charm. Enjoy peace of mind with a new aerobic septic system, new AC, and a striking red metal roof. Cozy up by the wood-burning fireplace—there's even a stack of pecan wood waiting for you! Relax or entertain on the screened-in deck overlooking the fenced yard. A double carport leads to a spacious workshop complete with an air-conditioned, furnished office—perfect for hobbies, storage, or a home business. Make this your primary residence, your weekend getaway, or your very lucrative Airbnb!

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• Built 1992

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $62 ($743/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.2% in Zavalla — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,345 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Huntington ISD (rural): math 46% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #303 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 113 active listings in the ZIP; 120 units permitted in Angelina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.96%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $124,800
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
456 Earl Shofner Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-12%)	15mo	$109,498	$96	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $77,532
• Equity at exit: $121,619

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.96×
• Total profit: $225,352
• Equity at exit: $262,275

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75949

• Home prices YoY: 19.1%
• Active inventory: 113
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,354 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$244 /mo · $2,923/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,276

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $138	-5% $100	+0% $62	+5% $24	+10% $-15
Rent	-10% $-45	-5% $8	+0% $62	+5% $115	+10% $169
Rate	-1.0pp $130	-0.5pp $96	base $62	+0.5pp $27	+1.0pp $-9

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-20
   historical
2. 2025-10-13
   listed $135,000
3. 2019-03-29
   soldstatus
4. 2016-09-30
   soldstatus
5. 2003-02-17
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,923 · $244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,923 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,923
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,300
• − Management: −$1,300
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$1,439
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$345
• After-tax cash flow: $1,088/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huntington ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824000
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,651
• Composite: 36.85/100
• National rank: #4554
• State rank: #303 of 826 in TX

Livability — Zavalla

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1345
• US rank: #23201

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,041

Population outlook (Angelina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,174 people
• By 2030: 90,697 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 91,291 · +1.2%
• By 2050: 91,168 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 88,961 · -1.3%
• By 2100: 80,590 · -10.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Angelina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.0) · D 23.7% · R 75.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -35.0pp · 2024: -52.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.0 2020: R+46.1 2016: R+47.3 2012: R+43.9 2008: R+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 48.97%
• Current HPI: 304.757
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Delisted — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-10-13 Listed $135,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2019-03-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-09-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-02-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+14.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,923 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.