6130 SW 8th Ln · Gainesville, FL 32607

$159,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,016 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 253 Days on market

Built 1982 654 sqft lot $148/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Alert! Currently leased. This charming two-bedroom, one-and-a-half-bathroom townhouse in the Shellrock Villas community offers a convenient and comfortable lifestyle. Being in a prime location close to the Oaks Mall, I-75, North Florida Hospital, and various dining and entertainment options, it is great for primary buyers or investors. The first floor features a well-appointed kitchen, a cozy living room and dining area, a half bath, a utility room with a washer and dryer. Upstairs, both bedrooms and a full bathroom awaits, the primary suite boasts a walk-in closet. The unit was recently updated adding NEW LVP on the stairs and upstairs, newly painted interior and bathroom vanity replaced along with a few other cosmetic upgrades. The monthly fees include building exterior maintainance taken care of by the HOA, as well as exterior insurance, including the roof. Offering you a low-maintenance lifestyle. Additionally, 2 Assigned parking spots make coming and going a breeze. Schedule a tour to see this charming townhome for yourself or for investment purposes.

Key facts

• Cozy living room
• Utility room
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• COZY LIVING ROOM
• UTILITY ROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• NEW LVP
• NEWLY PAINTED INTERIOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-330/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (2.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hidden Oak Elementary School (math 70% / reading 70%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 775 students, 36% FRL); Fort Clarke Middle School (math 50% / reading 54%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 961 students, 53% FRL); F. W. Buchholz High School (math 49% / reading 66%, grade C, #125 of 667 statewide, top 19%, 2,540 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 246 active listings in the ZIP; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 253 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $159k implies a 202% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 253 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.74%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-31,058
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-43,135
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32607

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,552 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$206 /mo · $2,470/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$148
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $-27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,587

Max offer price $154,144

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $63	-5% $18	+0% $-27	+5% $-72	+10% $-117
Rent	-10% $-150	-5% $-89	+0% $-27	+5% $34	+10% $95
Rate	-1.0pp $53	-0.5pp $13	base $-27	+0.5pp $-69	+1.0pp $-111

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $148 · $1,776/yr
• Likely covers: parking

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,000 Active 253 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $159,000 Active 250 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $159,000 Active 249 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $159,000 Active 248 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $159,000 Active 247 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $159,000 Active 246 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $159,000 Active 245 DOM
8. 2025-10-15
   price $159,000 1081-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1081 chars)

   Investor Alert! Currently leased. This charming two-bedroom, one-and-a-half-bathroom townhouse in the Shellrock Villas community offers a convenient and comfortable lifestyle. Being in a prime location close to the Oaks Mall, I-75, North Florida Hospital, and various dining and entertainment options, it is great for primary buyers or investors. The first floor features a well-appointed kitchen, a cozy living room and dining area, a half bath, a utility room with a washer and dryer. Upstairs, both bedrooms and a full bathroom awaits, the primary suite boasts a walk-in closet. The unit was recently updated adding NEW LVP on the stairs and upstairs, newly painted interior and bathroom vanity replaced along with a few other cosmetic upgrades. The monthly fees include building exterior maintainance taken care of by the HOA, as well as exterior insurance, including the roof. Offering you a low-maintenance lifestyle. Additionally, 2 Assigned parking spots make coming and going a breeze. Schedule a tour to see this charming townhome for yourself or for investment purposes.

9. 2025-09-27
   listed $164,900 Active 1081-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1081 chars)

   Investor Alert! Currently leased. This charming two-bedroom, one-and-a-half-bathroom townhouse in the Shellrock Villas community offers a convenient and comfortable lifestyle. Being in a prime location close to the Oaks Mall, I-75, North Florida Hospital, and various dining and entertainment options, it is great for primary buyers or investors. The first floor features a well-appointed kitchen, a cozy living room and dining area, a half bath, a utility room with a washer and dryer. Upstairs, both bedrooms and a full bathroom awaits, the primary suite boasts a walk-in closet. The unit was recently updated adding NEW LVP on the stairs and upstairs, newly painted interior and bathroom vanity replaced along with a few other cosmetic upgrades. The monthly fees include building exterior maintainance taken care of by the HOA, as well as exterior insurance, including the roof. Offering you a low-maintenance lifestyle. Additionally, 2 Assigned parking spots make coming and going a breeze. Schedule a tour to see this charming townhome for yourself or for investment purposes.

10. 2025-06-01
    historical $1,325
11. 2025-05-03
    price $1,325
12. 2025-03-28
    listed $1,400
13. 2022-06-22
    price $975
14. 2017-07-26
    soldstatus $52,600
15. 2017-03-25
    listed $62,000
16. 2014-07-07
    soldstatus $30,000
17. 2014-05-09
    listed $30,000
18. 2006-08-01
    soldstatus $65,300
19. 2006-07-28
    soldstatus $98,000
20. 2006-02-23
    listed $105,900
21. 1982-08-01
    soldstatus $38,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,629
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,470
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,490
• − Management: −$1,490
• − HOA: −$1,776
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$2,925
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$702
• After-tax cash flow: $372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #1480

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 188,348
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,720
• Household income: $45,987
• Rent vs Own: 66.0% rent · 34.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3418.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 11% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -177.86%
• Current HPI: 270.183
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.60%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+314.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $159,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-27 Listed $164,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-01 Rental Removed $1,325 APPFOLIO
• 2025-05-03 Price Changed $1,325 APPFOLIO
• 2025-03-28 Listed for Rent $1,400 APPFOLIO
• 2022-06-22 Price Changed $975 RENT.
• 2017-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $52,600 Public Records
• 2017-03-25 Listed $62,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-07 Sold (MLS) $30,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-09 Listed $30,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $65,300 Public Records
• 2006-07-28 Sold (MLS) $98,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-23 Listed $105,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1982-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $38,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,470 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.