211 Colonial Park Dr · Larkfield-Wikiup, CA 95403

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 13 Days on market

Built 1968 Est $225k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to a 3 bedroom, 2 bath 1440 sq. ft. mobile home in Colonial Senior Mobile Home Park. Large living room with a nice size dining room off to the side, with the kitchen next to the dining room, all super convenient for your life style. Kitchen appliances, refrigerator, full gas range with hood, dishwasher, washer and dryer included in price. There is also a nice newer Tuff shed in the 2 car carport for your storage needs. Colonial Senior Park has a clubhouse, in ground pool, and a dog park for our furry friends. Colonial Park is conveniently located in Larkfield, close to Kaiser and Sutter Medical facilities. Also, Colonial is close to Home Depot and Walmart for your shopping needs. Co

Key facts

• Dog park
• Kitchen appliances
• Tuff shed

Tags

• KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• TUFF SHED
• CLUBHOUSE
• IN GROUND POOL
• DOG PARK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park name: Colonial Mobile Home Park
• Financial info: Monthly land lease payment
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Land lease applies

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park - double wide; Located in a senior community
• Construction: Paramount manufactured home; Aluminum skirting
• Exterior features: Covered, railed deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Free-standing gas range; Free-standing refrigerator; Range hood; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Shower stall(s); Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled condition; Dining and living combined; Deck attached to living room; Laminate kitchen counters
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Dryer included; Laundry area in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 19.5% vs local median 2.1% in Larkfield-Wikiup — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 199 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.17%
• DSCR: 3.10
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $224,640
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
468 Colonial Park Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	2mo	$210,000	$156	78
16 Ellie Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	16mo	$119,000	$83	74
600 Colonial Park Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,632 (+13%)	1mo	$275,000	$169	72
428 Colonial Park Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	23mo	$170,000	$118	71
45 Colonial Park Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	8mo	$259,000	$193	68
19 Ellie Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-10%)	11mo	$240,000	$185	67
5229 Whispering Creek Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	3mo	$205,000	$153	60
152 Colonial Park Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,286 (-11%)	20mo	$196,000	$152	57
45 Arthur Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,315 (-9%)	23mo	$255,000	$194	56
5304 Huckleberry Way	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-2%)	18mo	$200,000	$142	47
5241 Whispering Crk	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,224 (-15%)	2mo	$191,000	$156	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $71,730
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.87×
• Total profit: $162,530
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95403

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,200 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $334/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $1,651

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,110

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,736	-5% $1,694	+0% $1,651	+5% $1,609	+10% $1,566
Rent	-10% $1,398	-5% $1,525	+0% $1,651	+5% $1,778	+10% $1,904
Rate	-1.0pp $1,727	-0.5pp $1,689	base $1,651	+0.5pp $1,612	+1.0pp $1,573

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
117 E Shiloh Rd Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	3.0	1783	$4,100	$2.30	44d	1	0.56mi
193 Airport Blvd E Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	967	$2,760	$2.85	13d	1	0.87mi
5256 Old Redwood Hwy Unit 31 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$2,200	$2.32	14d	1	0.95mi
5252 Old Redwood Hwy Unit 20 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	14d	1	0.95mi
5223 Old Redwood Hwy Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	915	$3,200	$3.50	13d	1	1.10mi
5209 Old Redwood Hwy Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	1014	$2,450	$2.42	22d	1	1.15mi
5365 Arnica Way Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.0	1699	$3,450	$2.03	22d	1	1.19mi
1145 Shiloh Rd Windsor, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	776	$4,395	$5.66	8d	14	1.34mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $150,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $334 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,140 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$806/yr (+$67/mo · 241.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,401
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$334
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,072
• − Management: −$3,072
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $18,407
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,418
• After-tax cash flow: $15,396/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa High
• NCES district ID: 0635830
• Math proficiency: 31% —
• Reading proficiency: 47% —
• Median HH income: $62,000
• Composite: 37.25/100
• National rank: #8972
• State rank: #703 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Larkfield-Wikiup

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Larkfield-Wikiup, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 45,570
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 45,806
• Household income: $98,191
• Rent vs Own: 45.2% rent · 54.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1770.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 13% Asian 5% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -679.94%
• Current HPI: 254.3106
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.10%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $150,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $334 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.