306 Schley Ave · Toms River, NJ 08755

$339,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,210 sqft · Condo · 25 Days on market

Built 1998 Good condition $368/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity knocks! Spacious 2 BR 2 Full baths condo on the 1st Floor with private garage. Master bedroom with walk in closets and private full bath, living room, dining room eat in kitchen & Laundry room. New Kitchen counter tops, New appliances, NEW Gas Stove, NEW dishwasher, NEW Refrigerator, NEW Washer & Dryer, and NEW Hot water heater. Private back yard lovely family friendly community suited for a growing family.

Key facts

• Private garage
• Private back yard
• Walk in closets

Tags

• PRIVATE GARAGE
• WALK IN CLOSETS
• NEW KITCHEN COUNTER TOPS
• GAS STOVE
• PRIVATE BACK YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA present (North Point Hollow); Monthly association fee; Association amenities include swimming, pool, basketball court, clubhouse, common area, playground; Association fee covers trash, common area maintenance, lawn maintenance, pool, snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium ownership (fee simple)
• Construction: No basement
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Part of a attached property (condominium)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooking; Stove; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Includes light fixtures; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Garage door opener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $339k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-85 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $327k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $332k (2.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $327k (3.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Joseph A. Citta Elementary School (math 13% / reading 38%, grade F, #851 of 1,303 statewide, top 66%, 483 students, 61% FRL); Toms River Intermediate School North (math 18% / reading 49%, grade F, #265 of 431 statewide, top 63%, 1,012 students, 38% FRL); Toms River High School North (math 24% / reading 52%, grade F, #210 of 399 statewide, top 53%, 1,931 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 22% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,323/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($88k/yr) (locally 529% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $326,669 (3.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.08%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-60,084
• Equity at exit: $50,546

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-58,187
• Equity at exit: $29,311

Cash invested: $94,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08755

• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,323 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$424 /mo · $5,085/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$368
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$698
• Net cashflow: $-85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,431

Max offer price $326,669

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $149	-5% $32	+0% $-85	+5% $-202	+10% $-319
Rent	-10% $-348	-5% $-216	+0% $-85	+5% $46	+10% $177
Rate	-1.0pp $86	-0.5pp $1	base $-85	+0.5pp $-173	+1.0pp $-262

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,750
• Closing costs: $10,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2556 Woodland Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1409	$3,500	$2.48	0d	1	0.48mi
2556 Woodland Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1409	$3,500	$2.48	15d	1	0.48mi
100 Jumper Dr Toms River, NJ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1642	$2,968	$1.81	0d	23	1.33mi
2144 Lakewood Rd Toms River, NJ	1.0	1.0	750	$2,150	$2.87	9d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $368 · $4,416/yr
• Likely covers: watergas
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $339,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 428-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   remarks 399-char remark
6. 2026-06-16
   listed $339,000 Active 20 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,882
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,989
• − Property taxes: −$5,085
• − Insurance: −$1,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,191
• − Management: −$3,191
• − HOA: −$4,416
• − Depreciation: −$9,862
• Taxable loss: −$6,547
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,571
• After-tax cash flow: $549/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom townhouse is in good condition with recent updates to the kitchen and appliances. It is located in a family-friendly community with a private back yard. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from some interior updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls and updating the flooring — Painting can refresh the interior and updating the flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading the kitchen appliances can make the home more appealing to potential buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the interior walls and updating the flooring — Painting can refresh the interior and updating the flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading the kitchen appliances can make the home more appealing to potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,670
• Household income: $87,575
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 529.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.51%
• Current HPI: 303.2721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $339,000 MOMLS