306 Schley Ave · Toms River, NJ 08755

$309,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,430 sqft · Townhouse · 165 Days on market

Built 1998 Good condition 435 sqft lot 1-car garage $216/sqft · 11% below area Est $347k · 11% under $368/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Home for the holidays! Move in ready Spacious 2 BR 2 Full baths condo over 1,400sf on the 1st Floor End unit with private garage. Master bedroom with walk in closets and private full bath, living room, dining room eat in kitchen & Laundry room. New Kitchen counter tops, new appliances, NEW Gas Stove, NEW dishwasher, NEW Refrigerator, NEW Washer & Dryer, and NEW Hot water heater. Private back yard Community pool, tennis court and club house lovely family friendly community.

Key facts

• Private garage
• Private back yard
• Walk in closets

Tags

• PRIVATE GARAGE
• WALK IN CLOSETS
• NEW KITCHEN COUNTER TOPS
• GAS STOVE
• PRIVATE BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $309k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-251 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $285k (7.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.7% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Joseph A. Citta Elementary School (math 13% / reading 38%, grade F, #851 of 1,303 statewide, top 66%, 483 students, 61% FRL); Toms River Intermediate School North (math 18% / reading 49%, grade F, #265 of 431 statewide, top 63%, 1,012 students, 38% FRL); Toms River High School North (math 24% / reading 52%, grade F, #210 of 399 statewide, top 53%, 1,931 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 22% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 461 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $271,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.49%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $346,750
• List price: $309,000
• Delta: -10.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Schley Ave	0.08mi	2/1.5	1,409 (-2%)	4mo	$346,500	$246	89
4103 Norma Pl	0.17mi	2/1.5	1,370 (-4%)	4mo	$340,000	$248	79
3104 Norma Pl #3104	0.02mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,622 (+13%)	0mo	$379,591	$234	70
4205 Norma Pl #4205	0.16mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,622 (+13%)	3mo	$400,000	$247	61
3303 Pepperbush Ct #3303	0.21mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,622 (+13%)	2mo	$399,900	$247	59
4005 Cleveland St	0.23mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,622 (+13%)	3mo	$370,000	$228	58
2802 Greenspire Ct	0.28mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,622 (+13%)	4mo	$405,000	$250	55
4602 Galloping Hill Ln	0.43mi	2/2.5	1,624 (+14%)	5mo	$410,000	$252	51
2503 Cleveland St	0.37mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,622 (+13%)	3mo	$380,000	$234	50
501 Santa Anita Ln	0.48mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,216 (-15%)	2mo	$355,000	$292	44
2004 Meadowlands Ct	0.63mi	2/1.5	1,216 (-15%)	3mo	$282,000	$232	41
2404 Gulfstream Way	0.71mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,216 (-15%)	4mo	$376,500	$310	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-65,814
• Equity at exit: $46,073

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-76,835
• Equity at exit: $26,717

Cash invested: $86,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 9 active · 16 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.2 mo (31%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $329,900 ($240/sqft)
• Median days on market: 44 d
• This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08755

• Active inventory: 461
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,851 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$386 /mo · $4,635/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$368
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$599
• Net cashflow: $-251

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,169

Max offer price $272,621

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-38	-5% $-145	+0% $-251	+5% $-358	+10% $-465
Rent	-10% $-477	-5% $-364	+0% $-251	+5% $-139	+10% $-26
Rate	-1.0pp $-96	-0.5pp $-173	base $-251	+0.5pp $-331	+1.0pp $-413

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,250
• Closing costs: $9,270
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
409 Schley Ave Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.5	1409	$2,650	$1.88	86d	1	0.06mi
1103 Scarlet Oak Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.5	1610	$2,700	$1.68	0d	1	0.09mi
1111 Scarlet Oak Ave #1111 Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.5	1409	$2,600	$1.85	71d	1	0.11mi
507 Schley Ave #507 Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.5	1409	$2,700	$1.92	5d	1	0.11mi
1711 Arthur St #1711 Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.5	1409	$2,800	$1.99	0d	1	0.18mi
2556 Woodland Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1409	$3,200	$2.27	99d	1	0.48mi
2556 Woodland Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1409	$3,500	$2.48	154d	1	0.48mi
2303 Gulfstream Way #2303 Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.5	1216	$2,640	$2.17	63d	1	0.69mi
1 Vans Way Toms River, NJ	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1199	$2,333	$1.95	0d	5	0.81mi
1 Vans Way Toms River, NJ	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	991	$2,362	$2.38	16d	1	0.81mi
2348 Huckleberry Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,700	$1.59	138d	1	0.83mi
803 Mississippi St #1503 Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.5	1696	$3,150	$1.86	0d	1	1.21mi
5 Rochford Dr Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1678	$2,159	$1.29	79d	1	1.22mi
3579 Vicari Ave Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1675	$2,700	$1.61	78d	1	1.25mi
100 Jumper Dr Toms River, NJ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1634	$2,890	$1.77	0d	30	1.33mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA present (North Point Hollow)Monthly association feeAssociation amenities include swimming, pool, basketball court, clubhouse, common area, playgroundAssociation fee covers trash, common area maintenance, lawn maintenance, pool, snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium ownership (fee simple)
• Construction: No basement
• Exterior features: Shingle roofPart of a attached property (condominium)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cookingStoveDishwasherRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Includes light fixturesNo fireplace
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerGarage door opener

HOA detail $368/mo · $4,416/yr

• Likely covers: watergaspool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $309,000 Active 165 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $309,000 Active 164 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $309,000 Active 163 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $309,000 Active 162 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $309,000 Active 161 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $309,000 Active 159 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $309,000 Active 158 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $309,000 Active 157 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $309,000 Active 156 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    pricedays on market $309,000 Active 155 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $321,000 Active 154 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $321,000 Active 153 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $321,000 Active 152 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $321,000 Active 151 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $321,000 Active 150 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $321,000 Active 149 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $321,000 Active 148 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $321,000 Active 147 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $321,000 Active 146 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $321,000 Active 145 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $321,000 Active 144 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $321,000 Active 143 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $321,000 Active 142 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $321,000 Active 141 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $321,000 Active 140 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $321,000 Active 139 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    remarks 481-char remark
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $321,000 Active 138 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $321,000 Active 137 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $321,000 Active 136 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $321,000 Active 135 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $321,000 Active 134 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $321,000 Active 133 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $321,000 Active 132 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $321,000 Active 131 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $321,000 Active 130 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $321,000 Active 129 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $321,000 Active 128 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $321,000 Active 127 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $321,000 Active 126 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $321,000 Active 125 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $321,000 Active 124 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $321,000 Active 123 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $321,000 Active 122 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $321,000 Active 121 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $321,000 Active 120 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $321,000 Active 119 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $321,000 Active 118 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    remarks 433-char remark
50. 2026-09-21
    pricedays on market $321,000 Active 117 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,309
• − Property taxes: −$4,635
• − Insurance: −$1,545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,737
• − Management: −$2,737
• − HOA: −$4,416
• − Depreciation: −$8,989
• Taxable loss: −$8,159
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,958
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,059/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,150–$21,450 screening

This 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom townhouse is in good condition with recent updates to the kitchen and appliances. It is located in a family-friendly community with a private back yard. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from some interior updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls and updating the flooring — Painting can refresh the interior and updating the flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading the kitchen appliances can make the home more appealing to potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Joseph A. Citta Elementary School F NJ #851/1,303 Nat'l #29,743/41,679 Middle Toms River Intermediate School North F NJ #265/431 Nat'l #7,937/14,009 High Toms River High School North F NJ #210/399 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

A Composite livability gradescore 81/100

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 586,991 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,670
• Household income: $87,575
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.51%
• Current HPI: 303.2721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA present (North Point Hollow)Monthly association feeAssociation amenities include swimming, pool, basketball court, clubhouse, common area, playgroundAssociation fee covers trash, common area maintenance, lawn maintenance, pool, snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium ownership (fee simple)
• Construction: No basement
• Exterior features: Shingle roofPart of a attached property (condominium)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cookingStoveDishwasherRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Includes light fixturesNo fireplace
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerGarage door opener

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $339,000 MOMLS