2164 Autumn Ridge Way · Auburn, AL 36879

$357,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2015 10,019 sqft lot Est $360k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SOLD. FOR COMP PURPOSES ONLY.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2015

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $358k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-299 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $305k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (34.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (34.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.7% in Auburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#6 in AL, #1,842 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Auburn City (urban): math 51% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #7 of 129 in AL (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Margaret Yarbrough Elementary School (math 56% / reading 74%, grade B+, #40 of 627 statewide, top 7%, 518 students, 34% FRL); Drake Middle School (math 44% / reading 69%, grade B, #16 of 257 statewide, top 6%, 711 students, 31% FRL); Auburn High School (math 54% / reading 50%, grade D+, #11 of 305 statewide, top 4%, 2,143 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,858 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (113 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Lee County population projected at +54% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $303k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,109 (34.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.58%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $359,752
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2164 Autumn Ridge Way	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,864 (0%)	1mo	$357,500	$192	99
2139 Autumn Ridge Way	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,891 (+1%)	9mo	$349,900	$185	87
2157 Autumn Ridge Way	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,743 (-6%)	12mo	$325,000	$186	78
2243 Autumn Ridge Way	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,838 (-1%)	20mo	$325,000	$177	72
2140 Autumn Ridge Way	0.06mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,035 (+9%)	8mo	$394,900	$194	68
2225 Red Tail Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,715 (-8%)	11mo	$331,000	$193	64
2159 Bluebird Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,942 (+4%)	1mo	$404,900	$208	58
2194 Quail Ct	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,740 (-7%)	20mo	$335,000	$193	52
2129 Bluebird Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,942 (+4%)	8mo	$416,400	$214	52
2171 Bluebird Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,942 (+4%)	9mo	$415,900	$214	51
2076 Covey Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,986 (+6%)	22mo	$342,000	$172	50
2189 Bluebird Dr	0.56mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,942 (+4%)	10mo	$416,400	$214	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.9% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $21,897
• Equity at exit: $158,643

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $106,933
• Equity at exit: $242,865

Cash invested: $100,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36879

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,351 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,875
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,590/yr
• Insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-299

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,729

Max offer price $304,709

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-96	-5% $-198	+0% $-299	+5% $-400	+10% $-501
Rent	-10% $-485	-5% $-392	+0% $-299	+5% $-206	+10% $-113
Rate	-1.0pp $-119	-0.5pp $-208	base $-299	+0.5pp $-391	+1.0pp $-486

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,375
• Closing costs: $10,725
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1960 Armistead Ln Auburn, AL	3.0	2.5	1923	$2,400	$1.25	23d	1	1.40mi
1711 Piedmont Dr Auburn, AL	3.0	2.0	1824	$2,300	$1.26	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-30
   price $357,500
3. 2026-03-19
   listed $362,000 Active
4. 2026-03-18
   historical $362,000
5. 2022-03-04
   soldstatus $303,000 29-char remark

   Show marketing remark (29 chars)

   SOLD. FOR COMP PURPOSES ONLY.

6. 2022-01-12
   listed $299,900 29-char remark

   Show marketing remark (29 chars)

   SOLD. FOR COMP PURPOSES ONLY.

7. 2015-09-30
   soldstatus $197,131

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,590 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,590 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,213
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,026
• − Property taxes: −$1,590
• − Insurance: −$1,788
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,257
• − Management: −$2,257
• − Depreciation: −$10,400
• Taxable loss: −$10,104
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,425
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,161/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Auburn City
• NCES district ID: 0100210
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,126
• Composite: 49.87/100
• National rank: #1944
• State rank: #7 of 129 in AL

Livability — Auburn

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #1842

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Auburn, AL
• City population: 80,251
• Population (ZIP): 2,975

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,440 people
• By 2030: 217,417 · +10.7%
• By 2040: 259,467 · +32.1%
• By 2050: 301,557 · +53.5%
• By 2075: 402,186 · +104.7%
• By 2100: 474,503 · +141.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.8) · D 35.5% · R 63.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: -19.8pp · 2024: -27.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+19.9 2008: R+19.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Current HPI: 196.5735
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+81.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — LCMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $357,500 LCMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $362,000 LCMLS
• 2026-03-18 Coming Soon $362,000 LCMLS
• 2022-03-04 Sold (MLS) $303,000 LCMLS
• 2022-01-12 Listed $299,900 LCMLS
• 2015-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $197,131 Public Records

Property tax history

+29.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,590 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.