204 Warren St · Botkins, OH 45306

$100

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,230 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1975 0.35 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +7.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Selling at Public Auction Sells live June 20th, 10:00 Am on site, Car sells day of auction also - A great opportunity to purchase a well-located home in a desirable neighborhood! Open House June 8th 4-6PM and June 15th This 3-bedroom ranch home on crawl space, offers a nice yard, concrete driveway, and a 2-car finished garage. Exterior updates include newer siding, windows, and roof, giving the property excellent curb appeal and low-maintenance ownership. The interior features: Eat-in kitchen Dining area with patio door access Spacious living room with fireplace Front entry closet 3 nice-sized bedrooms 1 full bath Large laundry room Electric heat Window air conditioning unit

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Newer siding
• Newer windows

Tags

• CONCRETE DRIVEWAY
• FINISHED GARAGE
• NEWER SIDING
• NEWER WINDOWS
• NEWER ROOF
• EAT-IN KITCHEN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family house; Built in 1975
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Residential lot; Lot dimensions roughly 110 x 140; Supplied water

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Window air conditioning unit(s)
• Interior features: Attic; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

🔨 Auction listing. The $100 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $201,720 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $100.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-480 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100).
• Recommended offer: $98 (2.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#454 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Botkins Local (rural): math 83% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #46 of 656 in OH (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 337 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($98) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3025.8% of price.

Recommended offer $98 (2.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.20%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 14.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $201,720
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
407 S Main St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,217 (-1%)	11mo	$200,000	$164	70
408 E State St	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,314 (+7%)	15mo	$195,000	$148	60
211 W Lynn St	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,140 (-7%)	20mo	$80,000	$70	46
202 W Lynn St	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,140 (-7%)	20mo	$76,000	$67	45
403 S Main St	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,396 (+14%)	22mo	$234,900	$168	44
415 Debra Dr	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,092 (-11%)	13mo	$220,000	$201	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.04% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-55,045
• Equity at exit: $38,816

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.42×
• Total profit: $-79,939
• Equity at exit: $32,828

Cash invested: $56,482 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45306

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 4

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,157 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,058
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$252 /mo · $3,026/yr
• Insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $-480

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,765

Max offer price $132,223

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-341	-5% $-411	+0% $-480	+5% $-550	+10% $-620
Rent	-10% $-572	-5% $-526	+0% $-480	+5% $-435	+10% $-389
Rate	-1.0pp $-379	-0.5pp $-429	base $-480	+0.5pp $-533	+1.0pp $-586

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,430
• Closing costs: $6,052
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $100 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $100 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $100 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $100 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-26
    listed $100 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,299
• − Property taxes: −$3,026
• − Insurance: −$1,009
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,110
• − Management: −$1,110
• − Depreciation: −$5,868
• Taxable loss: −$9,543
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,290
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,473/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Botkins Local
• NCES district ID: 3904976
• Math proficiency: 83% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 81% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,915
• Composite: 69.9/100
• National rank: #286
• State rank: #46 of 656 in OH

Livability — Botkins

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #454
• US rank: #7460

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Botkins, OH
• County: Shelby · 44,840 people
• Population (ZIP): 2,283
• Household income: $85,625
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,264 people
• By 2030: 45,935 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 42,786 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 38,981 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 30,225 · -36.1%
• By 2100: 21,273 · -55.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.8) · D 17.2% · R 82.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -36.4pp · 2024: -64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.8 2020: R+63.2 2016: R+60.6 2012: R+46.0 2008: R+36.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.04%
• Current HPI: 319.208
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,402 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.