3003 Zephyr Rd · Killeen, TX 76543

$115,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,030 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 124 Days on market

Built 1965 7,174 sqft lot $112/sqft · 23% below area Est $149k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 7,174 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1965

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $205 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.9% in Killeen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#853 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime D-.
• Killeen ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #524 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ira Cross Jr El (math 45% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,680 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 623 students, 75% FRL); Manor Middle (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,491 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 614 students, 75% FRL); Killeen H S (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 2,076 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 47% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 231 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $115k implies a 149% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.63%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $149,053
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -22.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2909 June St	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,036 (+1%)	1mo	$122,000	$118	95
2909 Zephyr Rd	0.03mi	3/1.0	1,095 (+6%)	6mo	$115,000	$105	83
807 Haynes Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (+1%)	1mo	$115,000	$111	73
2700 Terrace Dr	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,090 (+6%)	8mo	$83,000	$76	70
902 Jefferis Ave	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,050 (+2%)	20mo	$70,000	$67	66
3802 Griffin Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,141 (+11%)	4mo	$139,000	$122	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-9,141
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-4,879
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76543

• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 231
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,207 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,177/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $948

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $270	-5% $237	+0% $205	+5% $172	+10% $140
Rent	-10% $109	-5% $157	+0% $205	+5% $252	+10% $300
Rate	-1.0pp $263	-0.5pp $234	base $205	+0.5pp $175	+1.0pp $145

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2905 June St Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	728	$950	$1.30	45d	1	0.06mi
3013 June St Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	15d	1	0.09mi
1302 Opal Rd Unit A Killeen, TX	2.0	1.5	1125	$750	$0.67	25d	1	0.10mi
3101 Zephyr Rd Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	1118	$1,100	$0.98	25d	1	0.10mi
2905 Taft St Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$2,095	$1.69	45d	1	0.11mi
3102 Zephyr Rd Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1277	$1,095	$0.86	45d	1	0.12mi
3200 Zephyr Rd Unit Labs Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,600	$1.10	45d	1	0.14mi
1316 Opal Rd Unit A Killeen, TX	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,299	$1.08	45d	1	0.15mi
2707 Taft St Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1131	$1,200	$1.06	45d	1	0.21mi
1409 Opal Rd Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1319	$1,400	$1.06	45d	1	0.23mi
906 Jefferis Ave Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1317	$1,050	$0.80	15d	1	0.26mi
1419 Amber Rd Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,345	$1.02	45d	1	0.26mi
1509 Dugger Cir Apt C Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1178	$900	$0.76	45d	1	0.28mi
1505 Dugger Cir Unit B Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	857	$795	$0.93	25d	1	0.29mi
914 Stetson Ave Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	828	$850	$1.03	45d	1	0.31mi
910 Stetson Ave Unit (SR PnB) 910-912 Stetson Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	1082	$900	$0.83	25d	1	0.33mi
1602 Dugger Cir Unit D Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1178	$895	$0.76	15d	1	0.33mi
3406 Zephyr Rd Unit A Killeen, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$660	$0.60	25d	1	0.34mi
1504 Jefferis Ave Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1258	$1,100	$0.87	15d	1	0.34mi
1403 Dugger Cir Unit C Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1178	$695	$0.59	45d	1	0.35mi
1607 Dugger Cir Unit C Killeen, TX	2.0	1.5	930	$800	$0.86	45d	1	0.35mi
1606 Dugger Cir Unit C Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1178	$925	$0.79	25d	1	0.36mi
1300 Dugger Cir Apt A Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1178	$900	$0.76	45d	1	0.38mi
1503 Grey Fox Trl Killeen, TX	2.0	2.0	969	$1,100	$1.14	45d	1	0.39mi
2701 Hillside Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	924	$995	$1.08	22d	1	0.39mi
1312 Dugger Cir Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1178	$895	$0.76	15d	1	0.40mi
1702 Topaz Rd Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,500	$1.01	25d	1	0.40mi
1516 Jefferis Ave Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,295	$1.06	46d	1	0.40mi
1303 Fox Creek Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1194	$1,295	$1.08	15d	1	0.42mi
1310 Dugger Cir Unit A Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	857	$800	$0.93	22d	1	0.42mi
1207 Liberty Bell Loop Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,225	$1.02	15d	1	0.43mi
1512 Grey Fox Trl Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,295	$1.04	45d	1	0.44mi
2318 Mary Ln Killeen, TX	3.0	1.5	1162	$1,225	$1.05	45d	1	0.44mi
1106 Liberty Bell Loop Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1249	$2,095	$1.68	45d	1	0.45mi
2318 Terrace Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,299	$0.95	46d	1	0.46mi
1604 Grey Fox Trl Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,295	$1.04	25d	1	0.46mi
2303 Dover Rd Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,400	$1.00	25d	1	0.48mi
3401 Turner Ave Unit C Killeen, TX	2.0	1.5	1078	$900	$0.83	45d	1	0.50mi
2307 Terrace Dr Unit C Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1203	$850	$0.71	15d	1	0.51mi
2312 Doris Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1331	$1,350	$1.01	45d	1	0.51mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $115,000 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $115,000 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   pricestatusdays on market $115,000 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $126,999 Active Under Contract 121 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $126,999 Active Under Contract 120 DOM
6. 2026-05-18
   historical Active Under Contract
7. 2026-03-02
   price $126,999
8. 2026-01-30
   listed $135,999 Active
9. 2025-12-25
   historical
10. 2025-08-13
    price $140,999
11. 2025-07-29
    price $145,000
12. 2025-06-25
    listed $150,000 Active
13. 2004-07-21
    soldstatus $46,250
14. 2004-05-21
    soldstatus
15. 2004-04-21
    listed $47,500
16. 1977-06-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,177 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,104 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$928/yr (+$77/mo · 78.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,488
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,177
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,159
• − Management: −$1,159
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $631
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$152
• After-tax cash flow: $2,306/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Killeen ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825660
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,665
• Composite: 29.69/100
• National rank: #6458
• State rank: #524 of 826 in TX

Livability — Killeen

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #853
• US rank: #15359

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Killeen, TX
• County: Bell County · 345,090 people
• City population: 163,398
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,457
• Household income: $48,564
• Rent vs Own: 60.5% rent · 39.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2423.0

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 36% Hispanic / Latino 29% White 26% Two or more races 12% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 9% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -178.13%
• Current HPI: 184.405
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.49%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+167.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Contingent — CTXMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $126,999 CTXMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $135,999 CTXMLS
• 2025-12-25 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $140,999 CTXMLS
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $145,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-06-25 Listed $150,000 CTXMLS
• 2004-07-21 Sold (MLS) $46,250 CTXMLS
• 2004-05-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-04-21 Listed $47,500 CTXMLS
• 1977-06-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,177 · +12.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.