12038 Helvick Crescent Ave · Houston, TX 77051

$239,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 2013 6,725 sqft lot $171/sqft · 9% below area Est $264k · 9% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful three bedroom / two bath / one story home. Very clean and bright. Spacious backyard, no carpet. Residents of this community will enjoy several parks. Conveniently located with easy access to 288 and the Beltway. Very convenient to Medical Center, Downtown, Pearland Town Center restaurants, shopping and entertainment.

Key facts

• Open-concept layout
• 6,725 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MODERN WOOD-LOOK TILE FLOORING
• WIDE OPEN GREEN SPACE
• STEPS FROM A PLAYGROUND
• NEAR THE MEDICAL CENTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-536 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (39.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (39.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Reynolds El (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #4,301 of 4,322 statewide, top 100%, 334 students, 98% FRL); Attucks Middle (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 439 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 321 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,766/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1446% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,246 (39.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.58%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $264,300
• List price: $239,990
• Delta: -9.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1702 Ramsay Way	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,238 (-12%)	11mo	$199,500	$161	61
2635 Dragonwick Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,415 (+1%)	11mo	$210,000	$148	57
11921 Oakmont Valley Trce	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,557 (+11%)	16mo	$319,000	$205	51
2718 Summertime Dr	0.61mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,294 (-8%)	0mo	$165,000	$128	49
2638 Almeda Plaza Dr	0.62mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,413 (+1%)	16mo	$220,000	$156	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $99,942
• Equity at exit: $216,202

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.89×
• Total profit: $328,543
• Equity at exit: $466,248

Cash invested: $67,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,766 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$552 /mo · $6,627/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $-536

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,445

Max offer price $145,246

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-400	-5% $-468	+0% $-536	+5% $-604	+10% $-672
Rent	-10% $-676	-5% $-606	+0% $-536	+5% $-467	+10% $-397
Rate	-1.0pp $-415	-0.5pp $-475	base $-536	+0.5pp $-599	+1.0pp $-662

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,998
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11900 Oakmoor Pkwy Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	892	$1,469	$1.65	5d	12	0.25mi
2201 W Orem Dr Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,589	$1.40	13d	1	0.77mi
2201 W Orem Dr Apt 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,554	$1.37	9d	1	0.78mi
2201 W Orem Dr Unit 2148 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,589	$1.40	0d	1	0.78mi
2201 W Orem Dr Unit 2238 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,579	$1.39	45d	1	0.78mi
2201 W Orem Dr Unit 2112 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,538	$1.35	1d	1	0.78mi
2201 W Orem Dr Unit 2238 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,578	$1.39	13d	1	0.78mi
6 W Orem Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,380	$1.21	45d	1	0.78mi
11800 City Park Central Ln Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	885	$1,290	$1.46	7d	1	1.17mi
11800 City Park Central Ln Apt 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	885	$1,290	$1.46	9d	1	1.17mi
11800 City Park Central Ln Unit 425 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	885	$1,325	$1.50	0d	1	1.17mi
11800 City Park Central Ln Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	885	$1,314	$1.48	13d	1	1.17mi
11800 City Park Central Ln Unit 11857 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	885	$1,362	$1.54	45d	1	1.17mi
10415 Lancaster Ln Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1937	$2,525	$1.30	22d	1	1.20mi
11806 City Park Central Ln Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1107	$1,636	$1.48	45d	1	1.21mi
11806 City Park Central Ln Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1107	$1,636	$1.48	18d	1	1.21mi
11900 City Park Central Ln Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	877	$1,645	$1.88	0d	24	1.25mi
11915 Sanspereil Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,695	$1.30	5d	1	1.27mi
1661 Nichole Woods Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,746	$1.52	7d	1	1.29mi
3103 Kelling St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,619	$1.23	9d	1	1.30mi
10514 Wellesley Terrace Trl Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1843	$2,300	$1.25	20d	1	1.32mi
3119 Kelling St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,599	$1.22	45d	1	1.33mi
3135 Kelling St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,599	$1.22	24d	1	1.35mi
3150 Kelling St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,619	$1.23	9d	1	1.36mi
10000 Fannin St Apt 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1163	$1,661	$1.43	14d	1	1.39mi
10000 Fannin St Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1163	$1,626	$1.40	7d	1	1.39mi
10000 Fannin St Unit 2112 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1163	$1,661	$1.43	0d	1	1.39mi
10000 Fannin St Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1163	$1,626	$1.40	9d	1	1.39mi
10000 Fannin St Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1163	$1,650	$1.42	13d	1	1.39mi
10000 Fannin St Unit 2148 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1163	$1,651	$1.42	1d	1	1.39mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,450	$1.35	24d	1	1.39mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Unit NA Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,400	$1.32	7d	1	1.39mi
10301 Buffalo Speedway Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,961	$1.38	5d	1	1.40mi
10301 Buffalo Speedway Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,932	$1.36	20d	1	1.40mi
10301 Buffalo Speedway Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	972	$1,515	$1.56	13d	1	1.40mi
11906 City Park Central Ln Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,399	$1.35	45d	1	1.43mi
3234 Kelling St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,599	$1.22	26d	1	1.43mi
3215 Boynton Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,599	$1.22	26d	1	1.44mi
10006 Fannin St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1274	$1,549	$1.22	45d	1	1.44mi
3239 Kelling St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,589	$1.21	18d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,990 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,990 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,990 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,990 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,990 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,990 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $239,990 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,990 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,990 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,990 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,990 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,990 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-05-09
    historical
14. 2026-03-16
    listed $249,990 Active
15. 2023-05-26
    soldstatus Sold 328-char remark

    Show marketing remark (328 chars)

    Beautiful three bedroom / two bath / one story home. Very clean and bright. Spacious backyard, no carpet. Residents of this community will enjoy several parks. Conveniently located with easy access to 288 and the Beltway. Very convenient to Medical Center, Downtown, Pearland Town Center restaurants, shopping and entertainment.

16. 2023-05-26
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (328 chars)

    Beautiful three bedroom / two bath / one story home. Very clean and bright. Spacious backyard, no carpet. Residents of this community will enjoy several parks. Conveniently located with easy access to 288 and the Beltway. Very convenient to Medical Center, Downtown, Pearland Town Center restaurants, shopping and entertainment.

17. 2023-05-12
    status Pending 328-char remark

    Show marketing remark (328 chars)

    Beautiful three bedroom / two bath / one story home. Very clean and bright. Spacious backyard, no carpet. Residents of this community will enjoy several parks. Conveniently located with easy access to 288 and the Beltway. Very convenient to Medical Center, Downtown, Pearland Town Center restaurants, shopping and entertainment.

18. 2023-04-26
    status Option Pending 328-char remark

    Show marketing remark (328 chars)

    Beautiful three bedroom / two bath / one story home. Very clean and bright. Spacious backyard, no carpet. Residents of this community will enjoy several parks. Conveniently located with easy access to 288 and the Beltway. Very convenient to Medical Center, Downtown, Pearland Town Center restaurants, shopping and entertainment.

19. 2023-03-31
    price $239,000 328-char remark

    Show marketing remark (328 chars)

    Beautiful three bedroom / two bath / one story home. Very clean and bright. Spacious backyard, no carpet. Residents of this community will enjoy several parks. Conveniently located with easy access to 288 and the Beltway. Very convenient to Medical Center, Downtown, Pearland Town Center restaurants, shopping and entertainment.

20. 2023-03-07
    listed $249,000 Active 328-char remark

    Show marketing remark (328 chars)

    Beautiful three bedroom / two bath / one story home. Very clean and bright. Spacious backyard, no carpet. Residents of this community will enjoy several parks. Conveniently located with easy access to 288 and the Beltway. Very convenient to Medical Center, Downtown, Pearland Town Center restaurants, shopping and entertainment.

21. 2019-03-29
    soldstatus
22. 2019-03-22
    soldstatus Sold
23. 2019-02-01
    status Pending
24. 2019-01-21
    status Option Pending
25. 2019-01-11
    listed $159,000 Active
26. 2014-08-25
    soldstatus Sold
27. 2014-08-19
    status Pending
28. 2013-12-10
    listed $136,660 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,627 · $552/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,627 · $552/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,197
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,443
• − Property taxes: −$6,627
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,696
• − Management: −$1,696
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$10,698
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,568
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,868/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+82.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $249,990 HARMLS
• 2023-05-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-05-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-05-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-04-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-03-31 Price Changed $239,000 HARMLS
• 2023-03-07 Listed $249,000 HARMLS
• 2019-03-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-03-22 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-02-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-01-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-01-11 Listed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2014-08-25 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-08-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-12-10 Listed $136,660 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,627 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.