63 Augies Aly · Lake Monticello, VA 22963

$259,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,340 sqft · Townhouse public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2014 2,613 sqft lot Est $234k · 10% over $115/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• ARV discount +2.8/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

63 Augies Aly is a move-in ready townhome in Sycamore Square, offering modern, low-maintenance living in a convenient Palmyra location. This end unit enjoys abundant natural light and a large, welcoming living room. The open main level centers on a kitchen with generous counter space and a breakfast bar that flows into the dining area. A half bath and a storage closet round out the main floor. LVP flooring runs across the main level and upstairs hallway, with solid hardwood on the stairs. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a walk-in closet and private bath, plus two more bedrooms, a second full bath, and the laundry. The HOA keeps ownership simple, covering roof, lawn, trash, and snow remov

Key facts

• Move in ready
• Breakfast bar
• $115 HOA

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• MODERN LOW MAINTENANCE LIVING
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• LARGE WELCOMING LIVING ROOM
• GENEROUS COUNTER SPACE
• BREAKFAST BAR

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.06 acre
• HOA & community: Has association; Quarterly association fee of $344; Association covers management, common area maintenance, grounds maintenance, snow removal, and trash; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, picnic area, playground, and trails

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Attached duplex/townhouse; Two stories; End unit configuration
• Construction: Stick-built construction; Vinyl siding; Slab foundation; Built with public-records listed living area of 1,340
• Exterior features: End unit; Attached property

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary Bedroom (Second level); Bedroom (Second level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom; Primary bathroom (Second level); Bathroom (Second level); Half bath (First level); One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating and heat pump; Central air and heat pump
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Recessed lighting
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $62 ($744/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.6% in Lake Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#284 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fluvanna County Public School District (rural): math 61% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #34 of 131 in VA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary (715 students, 52% FRL); Fluvanna Middle (math 65% / reading 70%, grade A-, #98 of 342 statewide, top 30%, 763 students, 42% FRL); Fluvanna County High (math 60% / reading 76%, grade B, #180 of 319 statewide, top 57%, 1,488 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 23% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 202 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 138 units permitted in Fluvanna County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,498 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.03%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $234,500
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
58 Augies Aly	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,340 (0%)	8mo	$262,000	$196	91
108 Villa Cir	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,400 (+4%)	19mo	$255,000	$182	73
110 Augies Aly	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,440 (+8%)	20mo	$252,000	$175	68
94 Augie Aly	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,476 (+10%)	23mo	$244,000	$165	62
76 Villa Cir	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,476 (+10%)	20mo	$250,000	$169	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-38,024
• Equity at exit: $38,618

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-28,043
• Equity at exit: $22,394

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22963

• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,265 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,754/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$115
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,186

Max offer price $259,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $209	-5% $135	+0% $62	+5% $-11	+10% $-85
Rent	-10% $-117	-5% $-27	+0% $62	+5% $151	+10% $241
Rate	-1.0pp $192	-0.5pp $128	base $62	+0.5pp $-5	+1.0pp $-73

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
76 Villa Cir Palmyra, VA	3.0	2.5	1476	$2,200	$1.49	3d	1	0.07mi
4 Jennings Dr Palmyra, VA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	44d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $115 · $1,380/yr
• Likely covers: trash

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   status $259,000 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-19
   listed $259,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,754 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,124 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: +$370/yr (+$31/mo · 21.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$1,754
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,174
• − Management: −$2,174
• − HOA: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$3,641
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$874
• After-tax cash flow: $1,618/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fluvanna County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101380
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,601
• Composite: 57.6/100
• National rank: #1065
• State rank: #34 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lake Monticello

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #284
• US rank: #10173

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fluvanna County · 16,896 people
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 16,896
• Household income: $104,259
• Rent vs Own: 6.2% rent · 93.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 47.0

Population outlook (Fluvanna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,237 people
• By 2030: 27,607 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 28,075 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 28,019 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 28,058 · +3.0%
• By 2100: 26,124 · -4.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fluvanna

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.3) · D 46.4% · R 52.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -1.8pp · 2024: -6.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.3 2020: R+4.7 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+6.2 2008: R+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.94%
• Current HPI: 158.3322
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+57.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-20 Listed $259,000 CAAR
• 2026-06-18 Coming Soon $259,000 CAAR
• 2024-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $242,000 Public Records
• 2016-03-01 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2014-04-09 Listed $164,900 CAAR

Property tax history

+23.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,754 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.