423 Sterling St E Unit 423SE · Willow Springs, IL 60458

$44,600

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 35 Days on market

Built 2026 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * This welcoming, well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is a perfect place to raise your family. For your convenience, we have onsite community management to assist you when you need it. With our family-friendly community amenities such as a card room / holiday house, a fitness center, and community events, your family will be excited to live here. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 35 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $44,100

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Home design: Spec new construction (Plan 93195); Unit address: 423 Sterling St E Unit 423SE, Justice, IL
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,056

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Active listing

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 37.7% vs local median 5.5% in Willow Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#371 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, cost of living D+, amenities F.
• Argo Chsd 217 (suburban): math 20% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #423 of 620 in IL (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $308 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,262 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 112.02%
• DSCR: 5.98
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.37×
• Total profit: $67,052
• Equity at exit: $6,650

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.34×
• Total profit: $154,111
• Equity at exit: $3,856

Cash invested: $12,488 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60458

• Home prices YoY: -32.8%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,866 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$234
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $669/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $1,166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $390

Max offer price $44,600

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,197	-5% $1,181	+0% $1,166	+5% $1,150	+10% $1,135
Rent	-10% $1,018	-5% $1,092	+0% $1,166	+5% $1,240	+10% $1,313
Rate	-1.0pp $1,188	-0.5pp $1,177	base $1,166	+0.5pp $1,154	+1.0pp $1,142

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,150
• Closing costs: $1,338
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7601 Banks St Unit 2E Justice, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	14d	1	0.42mi
8120 Concord Ln Unit H Justice, IL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,550	$2.12	1d	1	0.54mi
7915 S 84th Ave Unit 6 Justice, IL	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	25d	1	1.06mi
8451 82nd St Unit 1N Justice, IL	2.0	1.0	820	$1,450	$1.77	25d	1	1.06mi
8112 Marion Dr Unit 2W Justice, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	13d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $44,600 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $44,600 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $44,600 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $44,600 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $44,600 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $44,600 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   pricedays on market $44,600 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $44,100 Active 26 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,390
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,498
• − Property taxes: −$669
• − Insurance: −$223
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,791
• − Management: −$1,791
• − Depreciation: −$1,297
• Taxable income: $14,120
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,389
• After-tax cash flow: $10,601/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained 3-bedroom home with average exterior and interior conditions could benefit from cosmetic updates to boost its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor exterior siding — Some discoloration
• Minor interior walls — Paint appears worn

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Hardwood or tile flooring is more durable and adds value
• Both Update bathrooms with new fixtures and paint — Modern bathrooms attract more buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
interior walls · Paint appears worn	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Hardwood or tile flooring is more durable and adds value ↑
• Both Update bathrooms with new fixtures and paint — Modern bathrooms attract more buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Argo Chsd 217
• NCES district ID: 1704020
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $47,451
• Composite: 17.68/100
• National rank: #9026
• State rank: #423 of 620 in IL

Livability — Willow Springs

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #7733

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 14,153

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 20% Two or more races 10% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 18% Spanish 14% Arabic 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.45%
• Current HPI: 220.3837
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B