16381 SW 57th St · Rainbow Park, FL 34481

$234,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Manufactured · 31 Days on market

Built 2026 1.07 ac lot Est $302k · 22% under ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. BRAND NEW CONSTRUCTION on 1.07 acres with no HOA! 1500 sq ft 3 bed/2 bath, open layout, and all new stainless steel appliances! Enjoy the freedom of A1 zoning and bring your horses, chickens, or all of your toys with no restrictions! FHA, VA, and USDA compliant! This homes prime location is minutes to WEC, Downtown Ocala, Rainbow Springs, shopping dining and major highways. INCLUDES MANUFACTURER WARRANTY TRANSFERABLE TO BUYER AT CLOSING. The front yard has been freshly seeded so you can enjoy your luscious lawn. New homes on 1+ acres are hard to find so sch

Key facts

• Quiet neighborhood
• No hoa
• 1.07 acre lot

Tags

• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• NO HOA
• FRONT YARD SEEDED FOR GRASS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-297/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dunnellon Elementary School (math 46% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,191 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 580 students, 61% FRL); Dunnellon High School (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #429 of 667 statewide, top 65%, 1,350 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,352 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.45%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $301,500
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16145 SW 57th St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,394 (-7%)	7mo	$280,000	$201	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-39,610
• Equity at exit: $35,024

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-36,399
• Equity at exit: $20,310

Cash invested: $65,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34481

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,024 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$294 /mo · $3,524/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,055

Max offer price $231,317

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,725
• Closing costs: $7,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3699 SW 169th Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1799	$2,100	$1.17	21d	1	0.67mi
4738 SW 166th Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1782	$1,600	$0.90	13d	1	0.81mi
4486 SW 159th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	1.0	1149	$2,500	$2.18	21d	1	0.90mi
15854 SW 38th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,750	$1.38	13d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   price $234,900
3. 2026-03-20
   price $239,900
4. 2026-03-11
   listed $244,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,282
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,158
• − Property taxes: −$3,524
• − Insurance: −$1,174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,943
• − Management: −$1,943
• − Depreciation: −$6,833
• Taxable loss: −$4,292
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,030
• After-tax cash flow: $733/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Rainbow Park

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,782
• Household income: $57,324
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 7% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.48%
• Current HPI: 199.986
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-4.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $234,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $239,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Listed $244,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid