103 Joyce Ave · Southgate, KY 41071

$150,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 970 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1924 4,095 sqft lot Est $232k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This cozy 2 bedroom, one story home offers a full unfinished basement, central air, a nice front porch, off street parking, a 1 car built-in garage, fenced rear yard, wood floors, a double window seat and plenty of natural light,

Key facts

• Off street parking
• Wood floors
• Central air

Tags

• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• CENTRAL AIR
• OFF STREET PARKING
• FENCED REAR YARD
• WOOD FLOORS
• PLENTY OF NATURAL LIGHT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $422 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 4.1% in Southgate — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#45 in KY, #513 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Southgate Independent (suburban): math 35% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #119 of 173 in KY (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 236 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 247 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (77 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.05%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $231,830
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
103 Joyce Ave	0.00mi	2/1.0	970 (0%)	1mo	$150,000	$155	99
225 Beech Rd	0.30mi	2/1.0	955 (-2%)	6mo	$180,000	$188	79
2235 Joyce Ave	0.31mi	2/1.5	923 (-5%)	1mo	$243,000	$263	74
2501 Alexandria Pike	0.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,092 (+13%)	2mo	$267,500	$245	68
2116 Joyce Ave	0.49mi	2/1.0	944 (-3%)	6mo	$226,000	$239	68
2122 Joyce Ave	0.47mi	3/1.5 (+1)	944 (-3%)	2mo	$233,000	$247	66
2115 Joyce Ave	0.50mi	2/1.0	936 (-4%)	8mo	$198,000	$212	64
377 Linden Ave	0.38mi	2/1.0	900 (-7%)	10mo	$183,000	$203	62
8 Laycock Ln	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (+3%)	6mo	$175,000	$175	62
249 Bluegrass Ave	0.44mi	1/1.5 (-1)	936 (-4%)	7mo	$150,000	$160	60
28 Gaddis Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,076 (+11%)	6mo	$449,000	$417	47
25 Greenwood Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	825 (-15%)	6mo	$325,000	$394	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $5,688
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $52,805
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41071

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,846 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $422

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3949 Vision CIR Southgate, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1132	$2,515	$2.22	1d	10	0.11mi
2335 Alexandria Pike Southgate, KY	2.0	1.0	557	$1,140	$2.04	2d	17	0.30mi
926 Ravine Cir Southgate, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	954	$1,371	$1.44	2d	6	0.57mi
35 Gettysburg Square Rd Fort Thomas, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,630	$2.04	2d	29	0.77mi
40 Edwards Ct Fort Thomas, KY	2.0	1.0	1013	$2,100	$2.07	1d	1	0.77mi
1700 Aspen Pines Dr Wilder, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1420	$1,895	$1.33	1d	14	1.01mi
24 Woodland Hills Dr #11 Southgate, KY	2.0	2.0	950	$1,445	$1.52	7d	1	1.21mi
1114 Columbia St Unit 2 Newport, KY	1.0	1.0	925	$1,550	$1.68	43d	1	1.30mi
120 Vista Point Dr Wilder, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	854	$1,184	$1.39	2d	2	1.40mi
920 Washington Ave Unit 10 Newport, KY	1.0	1.0	600	$955	$1.59	23d	1	1.42mi
911 Putnam St #2 Newport, KY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	21d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,155
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,772
• − Management: −$1,772
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $2,844
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$683
• After-tax cash flow: $4,380/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southgate Independent
• NCES district ID: 2105460
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $49,230
• Composite: 40.75/100
• National rank: #7579
• State rank: #119 of 173 in KY

Livability — Southgate

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #513

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southgate, KY
• County: Campbell County · 84,793 people
• City population: 19,680
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 19,680
• Household income: $59,976
• Rent vs Own: 47.3% rent · 52.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1136.0

Population outlook (Campbell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,668 people
• By 2030: 96,886 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 97,734 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 96,413 · +0.8%
• By 2075: 90,211 · -5.7%
• By 2100: 79,434 · -17.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Campbell

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.2% · R 58.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.2pp toward D · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.6 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+22.8 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -193.38%
• Current HPI: 244.9069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.64%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — NKMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $150,000 NKMLS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $234 · -6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.