102 Grove Ln · Warner Robins, GA 31047

$224,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,702 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1998 0.45 ac lot Est $311k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom, 2 bath home in a perfect location with a feel of the country life with amenities close by. Schools, restaurants & shopping.

Key facts

• 0.45 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1998

Tags

• LARGE FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2 covered spaces; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation; Built above grade with finished area
• Exterior features: No pool; Lot approximately 0.45 acres; Subdivision: Walkers Grove; Directions: South Houston Lake Road to Walker Road, left on Grove Lane; house on the right

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Storage; Fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $224k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $240 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (8.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.9% in Warner Robins — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#227 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Houston County (urban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #23 of 174 in GA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bonaire Middle School (math 67% / reading 68%, grade A-, #21 of 470 statewide, top 4%, 1,140 students, 32% FRL); Veterans High School (math 33% / reading 32%, grade F, #104 of 424 statewide, top 25%, 1,914 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 253 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,545 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $180k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,625 (8.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.59%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $311,466
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
532 Bristleleaf Path	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,675 (-2%)	1mo	$306,525	$183	65
516 Bristleleaf Path	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,675 (-2%)	1mo	$306,525	$183	64
518 Grove Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,570 (-8%)	12mo	$294,000	$187	61
120 N Tamie Circle Cir	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,779 (+4%)	10mo	$285,000	$160	58
135 Pond Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-6%)	10mo	$269,900	$169	58
102 Mayberry Ln Lot 1 MB	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,759 (+3%)	6mo	$315,000	$179	57
206 Willowbrook	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,675 (-2%)	12mo	$299,825	$179	55
217 Duke Ln	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,925 (+13%)	9mo	$280,000	$145	49
208 Emberwood Way	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,888 (+11%)	4mo	$345,504	$183	42
206 Emberwood Way	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,888 (+11%)	7mo	$345,504	$183	39
102 Emberwood Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,888 (+11%)	7mo	$345,504	$183	39
203 Emberwood Way	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,888 (+11%)	8mo	$345,504	$183	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-21,138
• Equity at exit: $33,474

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,033
• Equity at exit: $19,411

Cash invested: $62,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31047

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,066 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,177
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,454/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,762

Max offer price $224,500

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $367	-5% $304	+0% $240	+5% $177	+10% $113
Rent	-10% $77	-5% $159	+0% $240	+5% $322	+10% $404
Rate	-1.0pp $353	-0.5pp $297	base $240	+0.5pp $182	+1.0pp $123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,125
• Closing costs: $6,735
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
232 Spring Chase Cir Kathleen, GA	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,600	$1.30	44d	1	0.80mi
601 Huntwood Ln Kathleen, GA	3.0	2.0	1958	$2,000	$1.02	44d	1	1.15mi
408 # 1 CT Unit Villa Court unit Kathleen, GA	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,375	$1.10	14d	1	1.17mi
500 Club Villa Ct Kathleen, GA	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,495	$1.20	21d	1	1.17mi
500 Club Villa Ct Unit 2 Kathleen, GA	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,495	$1.20	44d	1	1.17mi
504 Club Villa Ct Kathleen, GA	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,375	$1.10	21d	1	1.18mi
504 Club Villa Ct Kathleen, GA	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,375	$1.10	44d	1	1.18mi
2350 Houston Lake Rd Kathleen, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1093	$1,630	$1.49	14d	18	1.43mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $224,500 Under Contract 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,500 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $224,500 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,500 New 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,500 New 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $224,500 New 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,500 New 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $224,500 New 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,500 New 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $224,500 New 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $224,500 New 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    statuslisting id $224,500 New 1 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    remarks 154-char remark
14. 2026-06-03
    listed $224,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,454 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,065 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: +$612/yr (+$51/mo · 42.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,795
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,575
• − Property taxes: −$1,454
• − Insurance: −$1,122
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,984
• − Management: −$1,984
• − Depreciation: −$6,531
• Taxable loss: −$855
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$205
• After-tax cash flow: $3,089/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston County
• NCES district ID: 1302880
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,823
• Composite: 38.68/100
• National rank: #4144
• State rank: #23 of 174 in GA

Livability — Warner Robins

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #13290

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Houston County · 157,321 people
• City population: 92,102
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• Population (ZIP): 20,203
• Household income: $117,332
• Rent vs Own: 14.7% rent · 85.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 11.0

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,502 people
• By 2030: 178,486 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 194,642 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 207,119 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 231,480 · +36.6%
• By 2100: 235,034 · +38.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Korean 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: R (+11.3) · D 44.0% · R 55.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: -20.2pp · 2024: -11.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.3 2020: R+12.4 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+20.7 2008: R+20.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.77%
• Current HPI: 218.1333
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+89.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $224,500 CGMLS
• 2020-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-28 Sold (MLS) $180,000 MGMLS
• 2020-10-28 Sold (MLS) $180,000 CGMLS
• 2020-10-28 Sold (MLS) $180,000 GAMLS
• 2020-09-02 Listed $175,000 MGMLS
• 2020-09-02 Listed $175,000 CGMLS
• 2006-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $141,000 Public Records
• 1998-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $118,560 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2020): $1,454 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.