22 Elm Lane Ext · Greenville, NY 12083

$349,900

5 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,168 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1970 1.60 ac lot $161/sqft · 27% below area Est $481k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Cash flow +3.1/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The setting of this home is stunning featuring 1.6 acres of meticulously maintained lawn surrounded by mature trees. This residence boasts space, including an oversized family rm w/ pellet stove & a more formal living room The kitchen offers abundant counter space & cabinetry, room for a table if you prefer a casual dining option instead of the dining room. The home has 3 nicely sized bedrooms one of which is an ensuite with a half bath & double closets. The full bath has been recently updated. Need a home office? We have that too and it's just filled with natural light. Conveniently located just mins to Greenville, 38 mins from Albany, and a little over 2 hours from the

Key facts

• Oversized family rm
• Conveniently located
• 1.6 acre lot

Tags

• METICULOUSLY MAINTAINED LAWN
• OVERSIZED FAMILY RM
• ABUNDANT COUNTER SPACE
• RECENTLY UPDATED FULL BATH
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Additional parking for a total of 10 spaces; Off-street parking, driveway, and circular driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Circuit breaker electrical service; Septic tank; Cable available and connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Crawl space and full unfinished basement
• Construction: Constructed with block and clapboard (and other materials); Block foundation; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Shed(s) / exterior storage; Level lot (approximately 1.6 acres)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor; One half bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Oil heating; Pellet stove heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Pellet stove in family room (fireplace); Has fireplace; 11 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room with washer and dryer hookups (electric dryer hookup and washer hookup)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (56.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (48.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (56.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.5% vs local median 3.1% in Greenville — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#713 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Greenville Central School District (rural): math 48% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #338 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 675 units permitted in Albany County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Albany County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $235k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $152,724 (56.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.67%
• DSCR: 0.39
• GRM: 16.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $480,965
• List price: $349,900
• Delta: -27.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
572 County Route 403	0.50mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,200 (+2%)	15mo	$314,500	$143	53
316 Sunset Rd	0.65mi	4/1.0 (-1)	2,000 (-8%)	14mo	$375,888	$188	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $119,575
• Equity at exit: $315,218

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.17×
• Total profit: $408,231
• Equity at exit: $679,779

Cash invested: $97,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12083

• Home prices YoY: 16.0%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 16.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,797 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$555 /mo · $6,664/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $-1,116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,210

Max offer price $152,724

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-918	-5% $-1,017	+0% $-1,116	+5% $-1,215	+10% $-1,314
Rent	-10% $-1,258	-5% $-1,187	+0% $-1,116	+5% $-1,045	+10% $-974
Rate	-1.0pp $-940	-0.5pp $-1,027	base $-1,116	+0.5pp $-1,207	+1.0pp $-1,299

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,475
• Closing costs: $10,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-05-02
   listed $349,900 Active 877-char remark
2. 2026-05-02
   listed $349,900 Active 811-char remark
3. 2025-12-31
   historical
4. 2025-08-07
   price $349,900
5. 2025-08-07
   price $349,900
6. 2025-06-23
   listed $354,500 Active
7. 2025-06-23
   listed $354,500 Active
8. 2025-03-22
   listed $360,000 Active
9. 2023-11-29
   soldstatus $235,000
10. 2023-11-16
    soldstatus $235,000 Closed
11. 2023-11-16
    soldstatus $235,000
12. 2023-08-03
    historical Contingent
13. 2023-07-18
    price $235,000
14. 2023-05-30
    status Active
15. 2023-04-26
    historical Contingent
16. 2023-03-29
    status Pending
17. 2023-03-29
    status Pending
18. 2023-02-23
    historical Contingent
19. 2023-02-06
    listed $250,000 Active
20. 2023-02-06
    listed $235,000
21. 2023-01-19
    historical
22. 2022-12-06
    status Pending
23. 2022-12-04
    historical
24. 2022-10-24
    status Active
25. 2022-09-26
    historical Contingent
26. 2022-09-23
    status Pending
27. 2022-09-12
    price $250,000
28. 2022-07-18
    price $290,000
29. 2022-06-03
    listed $300,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,664 · $555/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,664 · $555/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,567
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,600
• − Property taxes: −$6,664
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,725
• − Management: −$1,725
• − Depreciation: −$10,179
• Taxable loss: −$20,075
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,818
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,576/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greenville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3612870
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $58,430
• Composite: 44.81/100
• National rank: #2740
• State rank: #338 of 590 in NY

Livability — Greenville

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #713
• US rank: #13570

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,648
• Population (ZIP): 3,648

Population outlook (Albany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 320,794 people
• By 2030: 327,401 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 338,218 · +5.4%
• By 2050: 348,467 · +8.6%
• By 2075: 381,693 · +19.0%
• By 2100: 393,809 · +22.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 5% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Albany

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.8) · D 62.9% · R 37.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 25.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.8 2020: D+31.4 2016: D+24.3 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.23%
• Current HPI: 378.8518
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+16.6% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2026-05-02 Listed $349,900 Global MLS
• 2026-05-02 Listed $349,900 HVCRMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $349,900 HVCRMLS
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $349,900 Global MLS
• 2025-06-23 Listed $354,500 HVCRMLS
• 2025-06-23 Listed $354,500 Global MLS
• 2025-03-22 Listed $360,000 HVCRMLS
• 2023-11-29 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 2023-11-16 Sold (MLS) $235,000 Global MLS
• 2023-11-16 Sold (MLS) $235,000 HVCRMLS
• 2023-08-03 Contingent — Global MLS
• 2023-07-18 Price Changed $235,000 Global MLS
• 2023-05-30 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2023-04-26 Contingent — Global MLS
• 2023-03-29 Pending — Global MLS
• 2023-03-29 Pending — Global MLS
• 2023-02-23 Contingent — Global MLS
• 2023-02-06 Listed $250,000 Global MLS
• 2023-02-06 Listed $235,000 HVCRMLS
• 2023-01-19 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2022-12-06 Pending — Global MLS
• 2022-12-04 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2022-10-24 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2022-09-26 Contingent — Global MLS
• 2022-09-23 Pending — Global MLS
• 2022-09-12 Price Changed $250,000 Global MLS
• 2022-07-18 Price Changed $290,000 Global MLS
• 2022-06-03 Listed $300,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,664 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.