4936 Harney Ave · St. Louis, MO 63115

$26,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 760 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1940 2,800 sqft lot $35/sqft · 38% below area Est $43k · 38% under ↓ 45% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Solid all-brick home offering great potential with the possibility of 2 bedrooms and spacious room sizes throughout. Features include a full basement, fenced front and back yards, and plenty of opportunity to add value through updates and improvements. Whether you're looking for an affordable place to call home or a project to make your own, this property offers a budget-friendly opportunity with room for customization. Property is available for FHA 203(k) renovation financing, conventional renovation/rehab loans, and cash purchases. Owner Occupied offers will be prioritized, HUD's First Look Period applies for the first 30 days.

Key facts

• Fenced back yard
• Full basement
• Fenced front yard

Tags

• FULL BASEMENT
• FENCED FRONT YARD
• FENCED BACK YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Seller may consider concessions; Second mortgage not indicated; Lease not considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Bank-owned; Property listed as fixer
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Front and back yard fencing; Level lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (main level)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Carpet flooring; Full unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $27k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $410 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($742 rent vs $27k).
• Cap rate 24.6% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Walbridge Elem. Community Ed. (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,099 of 1,115 statewide, top 100%, 128 students, 98% FRL); Gateway Middle (math 0% / reading 8%, grade F, #389 of 391 statewide, top 100%, 506 students, 99% FRL); Sumner High (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #520 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 264 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 80% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $186 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $807 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $26,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 65.36%
• DSCR: 3.91
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $43,109
• List price: $26,900
• Delta: -30.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5018 Geraldine Ave	0.45mi	1/1.0	711 (-6%)	12mo	$49,999	$70	58
5086 Arlington Ave	0.53mi	2/1.0 (+1)	871 (+15%)	2mo	$24,999	$29	44
4475 N Taylor Ave	0.67mi	2/1.0 (+1)	848 (+12%)	2mo	$80,000	$94	42
4864 Carter Ave	0.44mi	2/2.0 (+1)	864 (+14%)	24mo	$47,000	$54	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 64.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.89×
• Total profit: $21,776
• Equity at exit: $4,011

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.99×
• Total profit: $52,629
• Equity at exit: $2,326

Cash invested: $7,532 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63115

• Home prices YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $742 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$141
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $284/yr
• Insurance: −$11
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$156
• Net cashflow: $410

Break-even live

Break-even rent $223

Max offer price $26,900

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $425	-5% $418	+0% $410	+5% $403	+10% $395
Rent	-10% $352	-5% $381	+0% $410	+5% $440	+10% $469
Rate	-1.0pp $424	-0.5pp $417	base $410	+0.5pp $403	+1.0pp $396

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,725
• Closing costs: $807
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4919 Thekla Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	931	$700	$0.75	45d	1	0.17mi
4908 W Florissant Ave Apt A St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	750	$695	$0.93	45d	1	0.17mi
4908 W Florissant Ave Unit B St. Louis, MO	—	1.0	750	$675	$0.90	45d	1	0.17mi
4732 W Florissant Ave Unit 2nd St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	600	$650	$1.08	45d	1	0.27mi
4460 Bircher Blvd Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	1100	$725	$0.66	12d	1	0.56mi
4642 Farlin Ave Unit 1F St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1056	$800	$0.76	45d	1	0.95mi
4715 Thrush Ave Unit 24 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	25d	1	1.13mi
4719 Plover Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	744	$995	$1.34	6d	1	1.18mi
5931 Emma Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	880	$1,200	$1.36	45d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $26,900 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $26,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $26,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $26,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $26,900 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $26,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 637-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on marketlisting id $26,900 Active 1 DOM
9. 2025-11-19
   price $30,000 535-char remark
10. 2025-08-24
    listed $49,000 Active 535-char remark
11. 2025-08-23
    historical $49,000 535-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $284 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $284 · $24/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $8,905
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,507
• − Property taxes: −$284
• − Insurance: −$134
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$712
• − Management: −$712
• − Depreciation: −$783
• Taxable income: $4,772
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,145
• After-tax cash flow: $3,778/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 14,488
• Household income: $30,622
• Rent vs Own: 57.7% rent · 42.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1655.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 95% White 2% Two or more races 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.42%
• Current HPI: 127.3403
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-45.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $26,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $30,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-24 Listed $49,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-23 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $284 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.