48313 Waltrip Ln · Natalbany, LA 70466

$190,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,187 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2010 0.37 ac lot Est $189k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

** BRAND NEW ROOF!** Don't miss this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home in Tickfaw, near Albany and just 12 minutes from SELU! Featuring a brand new roof and located in preferred FLOOD ZONE X, this home offers both value and peace of mind. Situated on an oversized lot, the expansive backyard provides endless possibilities, perfect for entertaining and outdoor living. Whether you are looking for a family home or an investment property, this is the one!

Key facts

• Brand new roof
• Expansive backyard
• Oversized lot

Tags

• BRAND NEW ROOF
• PREFERRED FLOOD ZONE X
• OVERSIZED LOT
• EXPANSIVE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $140 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.5% in Natalbany — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#208 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Tangipahoa Parish (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #63 of 98 in LA (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 1,085 units permitted in Tangipahoa Parish in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Tangipahoa County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,739 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.15%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $188,733
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
48313 Waltrip Ln	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,153 (-3%)	1mo	$190,000	$165	94
48281 Waltrip Ln	0.06mi	3/1.5	1,099 (-7%)	7mo	$174,900	$159	79
48241 Waltrip Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,321 (+11%)	1mo	$205,000	$155	72
11266 Martin Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+11%)	1mo	$200,000	$152	70
11309 Breeze Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,184 (-0%)	6mo	$200,000	$169	67
11292 Zephyr Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,273 (+7%)	0mo	$205,000	$161	57
48030 Sibley Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,286 (+8%)	3mo	$200,000	$156	54
48452 Sibley Rd	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,350 (+14%)	7mo	$155,000	$115	52
47364 Palm Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,275 (+7%)	12mo	$221,000	$173	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $38,216
• Equity at exit: $92,352

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $115,669
• Equity at exit: $147,957

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70466

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,637 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $940/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,461

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-05-21
   soldstatus Closed

   Show marketing remark (445 chars)

   ** BRAND NEW ROOF!** Don't miss this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home in Tickfaw, near Albany and just 12 minutes from SELU! Featuring a brand new roof and located in preferred FLOOD ZONE X, this home offers both value and peace of mind. Situated on an oversized lot, the expansive backyard provides endless possibilities, perfect for entertaining and outdoor living. Whether you are looking for a family home or an investment property, this is the one!

2. 2026-05-21
   soldstatus Sold 445-char remark

   Show marketing remark (445 chars)

   ** BRAND NEW ROOF!** Don't miss this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home in Tickfaw, near Albany and just 12 minutes from SELU! Featuring a brand new roof and located in preferred FLOOD ZONE X, this home offers both value and peace of mind. Situated on an oversized lot, the expansive backyard provides endless possibilities, perfect for entertaining and outdoor living. Whether you are looking for a family home or an investment property, this is the one!

3. 2026-04-19
   status Pending 445-char remark

   Show marketing remark (445 chars)

   ** BRAND NEW ROOF!** Don't miss this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home in Tickfaw, near Albany and just 12 minutes from SELU! Featuring a brand new roof and located in preferred FLOOD ZONE X, this home offers both value and peace of mind. Situated on an oversized lot, the expansive backyard provides endless possibilities, perfect for entertaining and outdoor living. Whether you are looking for a family home or an investment property, this is the one!

4. 2026-04-19
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (445 chars)

   ** BRAND NEW ROOF!** Don't miss this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home in Tickfaw, near Albany and just 12 minutes from SELU! Featuring a brand new roof and located in preferred FLOOD ZONE X, this home offers both value and peace of mind. Situated on an oversized lot, the expansive backyard provides endless possibilities, perfect for entertaining and outdoor living. Whether you are looking for a family home or an investment property, this is the one!

5. 2026-04-15
   listed $190,000 Active 445-char remark

   Show marketing remark (445 chars)

   ** BRAND NEW ROOF!** Don't miss this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home in Tickfaw, near Albany and just 12 minutes from SELU! Featuring a brand new roof and located in preferred FLOOD ZONE X, this home offers both value and peace of mind. Situated on an oversized lot, the expansive backyard provides endless possibilities, perfect for entertaining and outdoor living. Whether you are looking for a family home or an investment property, this is the one!

6. 2026-04-15
   listed $190,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (445 chars)

   ** BRAND NEW ROOF!** Don't miss this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home in Tickfaw, near Albany and just 12 minutes from SELU! Featuring a brand new roof and located in preferred FLOOD ZONE X, this home offers both value and peace of mind. Situated on an oversized lot, the expansive backyard provides endless possibilities, perfect for entertaining and outdoor living. Whether you are looking for a family home or an investment property, this is the one!

7. 2022-05-27
   soldstatus $170,000
8. 2022-05-26
   soldstatus Sold 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   This property would be a fantastic starter home or rental property. Located in a great neighborhood. Did not flood and does not require flood insurance. The large back yard is perfect for entertaining. Master bedroom is very spacious. Come check out this great home before its GONE! Agents, please see realtor remarks before submitting an offer.

9. 2022-04-19
   status Pending 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   This property would be a fantastic starter home or rental property. Located in a great neighborhood. Did not flood and does not require flood insurance. The large back yard is perfect for entertaining. Master bedroom is very spacious. Come check out this great home before its GONE! Agents, please see realtor remarks before submitting an offer.

10. 2022-04-14
    listed $170,000 Active 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    This property would be a fantastic starter home or rental property. Located in a great neighborhood. Did not flood and does not require flood insurance. The large back yard is perfect for entertaining. Master bedroom is very spacious. Come check out this great home before its GONE! Agents, please see realtor remarks before submitting an offer.

11. 2022-04-14
    listed $170,000

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    This property would be a fantastic starter home or rental property. Located in a great neighborhood. Did not flood and does not require flood insurance. The large back yard is perfect for entertaining. Master bedroom is very spacious. Come check out this great home before its GONE! Agents, please see realtor remarks before submitting an offer.

12. 2018-08-20
    soldstatus $125,000
13. 2015-12-22
    soldstatus $95,000
14. 2015-12-18
    soldstatus Sold
15. 2015-10-09
    status Under Contract
16. 2015-09-28
    price $99,000
17. 2015-09-10
    listed $109,000 Active
18. 2015-09-10
    listed $99,000
19. 2009-07-06
    soldstatus $27,236
20. 2008-06-19
    soldstatus $1,120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $940 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,045 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: +$105/yr (+$9/mo · 11.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,649
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$940
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,572
• − Management: −$1,572
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$1,555
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$373
• After-tax cash flow: $2,049/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tangipahoa Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201680
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $41,283
• Composite: 19.94/100
• National rank: #8676
• State rank: #63 of 98 in LA

Livability — Natalbany

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #208
• US rank: #16184

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 73
• Population (ZIP): 9,815

Population outlook (Tangipahoa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,204 people
• By 2030: 151,413 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 164,374 · +14.0%
• By 2050: 175,427 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 195,165 · +35.3%
• By 2100: 201,641 · +39.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Serbian 2% Scandinavian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Tangipahoa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.6% · R 68.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -30.9pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+32.6 2012: R+27.7 2008: R+30.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.64%
• Current HPI: 126.0016
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-83.0% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Sold (MLS) — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-21 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2026-04-19 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-19 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $190,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $190,000 GBRMLS
• 2022-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-26 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2022-04-19 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2022-04-14 Listed $170,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2022-04-14 Listed $170,000 GBRMLS
• 2018-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2015-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2015-12-18 Sold (MLS) — GSREIN
• 2015-10-09 Pending — GSREIN
• 2015-09-28 Price Changed $99,000 GSREIN
• 2015-09-10 Listed $109,000 GSREIN
• 2015-09-10 Listed $99,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2009-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $27,236 Public Records
• 2008-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $1,120,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $940 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.