28820 Dobra Trl · Plum Grove, TX 77357

$233,941

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,635 sqft · SingleFamily · 37 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $75/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction Lennar Houston Home - The Cupertino II Floor Plan - This new single-level home boasts a modern and low-maintenance design. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for seamless transitions and multitasking. All three bedrooms are nestled at the back of the home for enhanced privacy and comfort, including the luxe owner’s suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Single-level home
• Luxe owner suite

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL HOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• LUXE OWNER SUITE
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: Lennar Homes
• HOA & community: Community association (CCMC) with annual fee of $900

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); One-story; Entry level: First floor
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and stucco construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (11 x 15); Bedroom on first floor (11 x 10); Bedroom on first floor (10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen and family room combo; Kitchen and dining combo; Separate shower; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $233,941 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $325,490.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $234k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-882 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (15.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Falcon Ridge El (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,234 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 689 students, 49% FRL); Huffman Middle (math 36% / reading 32%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 907 students, 42% FRL); Hargrave H S (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,125 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 979 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,568 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.61%
• DSCR: 0.48
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $325,490
• List price: $233,941
• Delta: -28.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28814 Dobra Trl	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (+1%)	1mo	$299,990	$181	82
304 Dam Drop Dr	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,578 (-4%)	0mo	$245,000	$155	80
306 Violet Crown Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+4%)	3mo	$264,990	$156	80
202 Yellow Rosewood Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+10%)	1mo	$315,990	$176	76
305 Violet Crown Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,549 (-5%)	7mo	$259,990	$168	74
28805 Bobcat Run Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,755 (+7%)	4mo	$269,990	$154	73
28818 Bobcat Run Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,549 (-5%)	7mo	$249,990	$161	73
302 Violet Crown Ln	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,721 (+5%)	3mo	$274,990	$160	72
303 Haynes Ridge Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,740 (+6%)	4mo	$284,990	$164	69
286 County Road 5102 Unit F	0.60mi	3/3.5	1,692 (+4%)	1mo	$224,000	$132	59
104 County Road 5102 A	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,686 (+3%)	8mo	$296,990	$176	55
209 Yellow Rosewood Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,880 (+15%)	0mo	$325,990	$173	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-113,837
• Equity at exit: $48,532

10-year hold

• IRR: -87.9%
• Equity multiple: -1.09×
• Total profit: $-190,520
• Equity at exit: $28,142

Cash invested: $91,137 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 979
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,826 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,707
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$407 /mo · $4,882/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $-882

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,942

Max offer price $197,849

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,372
• Closing costs: $9,765
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
670 Road 51021 Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1699	$1,749	$1.03	1d	8	0.72mi
26 Road 5102 F Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1761	$1,501	$0.85	21d	1	0.76mi
1176 Road 5102 Cleveland, TX	4.0	3.0	2032	$2,150	$1.06	43d	1	0.94mi
895 Road 51023 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	43d	1	0.99mi
885 Road 51023 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	21d	1	1.00mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $233,941 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $233,941 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $233,941 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 581-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $233,941 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $233,941 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $233,941 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $233,941 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $233,941 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $233,941 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $233,941 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $233,941 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $233,941 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $233,941 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    historical
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $233,941 Active 548-char remark
17. 2026-05-02
    price $233,941
18. 2026-04-29
    price $233,940
19. 2026-04-29
    price $233,940
20. 2026-04-17
    price $237,940
21. 2026-04-16
    price $237,940
22. 2026-04-10
    price $241,990
23. 2026-04-09
    price $241,990
24. 2026-04-07
    price $240,090
25. 2026-04-07
    price $240,090
26. 2026-04-03
    price $248,390
27. 2026-04-02
    price $248,390
28. 2026-03-31
    price $256,990
29. 2026-03-31
    price $256,990
30. 2026-03-24
    price $265,590
31. 2026-03-24
    price $265,590
32. 2026-03-10
    price $269,990
33. 2026-03-10
    price $269,990
34. 2026-03-02
    price $291,990
35. 2026-03-01
    price $291,990
36. 2026-02-18
    price $295,990
37. 2026-01-09
    listed $301,990 Active
38. 2026-01-06
    listed $301,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,908
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,233
• − Property taxes: −$4,882
• − Insurance: −$1,627
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,753
• − Management: −$1,753
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$9,469
• Taxable loss: −$16,708
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,010
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,575/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern single-level home is move-in ready with a good condition score and a neutral, welcoming interior. Potential for minor exterior and landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior stone — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior stone — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huffman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823820
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,848
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6195
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-22.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $233,941 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $233,940 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $237,940 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $241,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $240,090 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $248,390 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $256,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $265,590 HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $269,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $291,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $301,990 HARMLS