Beckman Plan · Elgin, TX 78621

$281,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily · 21 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner's suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer.

Key facts

• Playgrounds
• Swimming pool
• Local shops

Tags

• SWIMMING POOL
• PLAYGROUNDS
• LOCAL SHOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $280,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan (Beckman); Single-family plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,260; Property available by appointment only in Elgin, TX

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (plan); Standard plan named Beckman

🏗️ New construction. The $281,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $217,980.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $281k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $105 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (17.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (27.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 813 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $61k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,024 (27.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.07%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $217,980
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13329 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+0%)	2mo	$220,990	$175	88
23429 Firelight Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+0%)	6mo	$227,990	$180	88
23501 Firelight Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+12%)	2mo	$228,990	$162	73
13309 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+11%)	2mo	$226,990	$162	72
13321 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+12%)	1mo	$237,999	$169	70
13421 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+11%)	1mo	$241,999	$173	69
13405 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+12%)	2mo	$237,990	$169	68
13313 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+12%)	4mo	$230,990	$164	68
23704 Tiny Moons Way	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+12%)	11mo	$269,990	$191	68
17609 Soapberry Cv	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,102 (-12%)	3mo	$235,000	$213	49
17900 Honey Locust Ln	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,326 (+5%)	11mo	$230,742	$174	47
17808 Majestic Elm Ln	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,448 (+15%)	10mo	$179,900	$124	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $125,707
• Equity at exit: $196,374

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.99×
• Total profit: $365,472
• Equity at exit: $423,487

Cash invested: $61,034 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 813
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,040 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,143
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$272 /mo · $3,270/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,907

Max offer price $217,980

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $256	-5% $181	+0% $105	+5% $30	+10% $-45
Rent	-10% $-56	-5% $25	+0% $105	+5% $186	+10% $267
Rate	-1.0pp $215	-0.5pp $161	base $105	+0.5pp $49	+1.0pp $-9

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,495
• Closing costs: $6,539
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13305 Banquete St Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,995	$1.17	44d	1	0.59mi
13501 Mussel Run Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	17d	1	0.60mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	24d	1	0.64mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	17d	1	0.64mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	3d	1	0.72mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	24d	1	0.74mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	24d	1	0.83mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	5d	1	0.85mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	18d	1	0.88mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	24d	1	0.98mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,595	$1.38	5d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $281,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $281,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $281,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   price $281,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $280,999 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $280,999 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $280,999 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $280,999 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $280,999 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,999 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,999 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,999 Active 5 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,483
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,210
• − Property taxes: −$3,270
• − Insurance: −$1,090
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,959
• − Management: −$1,959
• − Depreciation: −$6,341
• Taxable loss: −$2,345
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$563
• After-tax cash flow: $1,827/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B