8695 SE 158th St · The Villages, FL 34491

$254,700

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,398 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 2019 9,583 sqft lot $182/sqft · 14% below area Est $295k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Here is a beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath split-bedroom home in a great location! It’s close to shopping, restaurants, medical facilities, and more. This home features solid concrete block and stucco construction, a private well and septic system, a 2-car garage, durable architectural shingles, and ceiling fans throughout. The kitchen and bathrooms are finished with wood cabinets and granite countertops, adding both style and functionality. This is truly a wonderful home—schedule your showing today! All information recorded in the MLS is intended to be accurate but is not guaranteed. Square footage, room sizes, and lot size should be independently verified.

Key facts

• Solid concrete block
• Private well
• Stucco construction

Tags

• SOLID CONCRETE BLOCK
• STUCCO CONSTRUCTION
• PRIVATE WELL
• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• DURABLE ARCHITECTURAL SHINGLES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-176 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (12.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harbour View Elementary School (math 41% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,513 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 819 students, 71% FRL); Lake Weir Middle School (math 37% / reading 33%, grade F, #416 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 1,207 students, 76% FRL); Belleview High School (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #321 of 667 statewide, top 49%, 1,783 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 713 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $179k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,137 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.96%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $295,050
• List price: $254,700
• Delta: -13.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16335 SE 88th Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-7%)	9mo	$270,000	$208	55
16340 SE 89th Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,421 (+2%)	22mo	$270,000	$190	52
16175 SE 84th Ter	0.43mi	3/3.0	1,330 (-5%)	20mo	$214,250	$161	51
9289 SE 159th Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-12%)	17mo	$232,500	$189	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-52,435
• Equity at exit: $37,977

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-59,941
• Equity at exit: $22,022

Cash invested: $71,316 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34491

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Active inventory: 713
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,011 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,336
• Tax from tax record: −$323 /mo · $3,876/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,234

Max offer price $223,647

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-32	-5% $-104	+0% $-176	+5% $-248	+10% $-320
Rent	-10% $-335	-5% $-255	+0% $-176	+5% $-96	+10% $-17
Rate	-1.0pp $-48	-0.5pp $-111	base $-176	+0.5pp $-242	+1.0pp $-309

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,675
• Closing costs: $7,641
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8721 SE 157th St Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,650	$1.33	23d	1	0.14mi
8364 SE 158th Pl Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1374	$2,000	$1.46	15d	1	0.33mi
8352 SE 158th Pl Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1232	$2,000	$1.62	15d	1	0.34mi
9195 SE 163rd St Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,800	$1.28	23d	1	0.69mi
9871 SE 161st Lane Rd Unit 0 Summerfield, FL	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,200	$1.20	23d	1	1.19mi
16962 SE 94th Sunnybrook Cir The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1160	$2,000	$1.72	23d	1	1.31mi
9523 SE 168th Maplesong Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,975	$1.56	23d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $254,700 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-05-14
   price $254,700 674-char remark

   Show marketing remark (674 chars)

   Here is a beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath split-bedroom home in a great location! It’s close to shopping, restaurants, medical facilities, and more. This home features solid concrete block and stucco construction, a private well and septic system, a 2-car garage, durable architectural shingles, and ceiling fans throughout. The kitchen and bathrooms are finished with wood cabinets and granite countertops, adding both style and functionality. This is truly a wonderful home—schedule your showing today! All information recorded in the MLS is intended to be accurate but is not guaranteed. Square footage, room sizes, and lot size should be independently verified.

3. 2026-04-14
   listed $259,900 Active 674-char remark

   Show marketing remark (674 chars)

   Here is a beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath split-bedroom home in a great location! It’s close to shopping, restaurants, medical facilities, and more. This home features solid concrete block and stucco construction, a private well and septic system, a 2-car garage, durable architectural shingles, and ceiling fans throughout. The kitchen and bathrooms are finished with wood cabinets and granite countertops, adding both style and functionality. This is truly a wonderful home—schedule your showing today! All information recorded in the MLS is intended to be accurate but is not guaranteed. Square footage, room sizes, and lot size should be independently verified.

4. 2024-02-01
   historical
5. 2024-01-20
   listed
6. 2020-01-23
   soldstatus $179,000 796-char remark

   Show marketing remark (796 chars)

   Under Construction. Are you Looking for a Brand new HOME with all of the UPGRADES INCLUDED? HERE IS A BEAUTIFUL 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath SPLIT BEDROOM HOME in a Dynamite LOCATION! Perfectly nestled in Summerfield near The Villages, Lake Weir, Shopping, Restaurants, Medical and much more. Featuring: Concrete Block and Stucco, Well and septic, 2-car Garage, Architectural shingles, Energy efficient heat pump, programmable thermostat, ceiling fans, knockdown drywall finish on the ceiling and orange peel finish on the walls, tile floors in the Foyer, Kitchen, Laundry and Bathrooms, Laminated floors in the Living Room, Dining Room and Bedrooms, tiled showers, elongated commodes and Delta chrome fixtures in the Bathrooms, wood cabinets and granite in the Kitchen and Bathrooms. The FABULOUS Stainless

7. 2020-01-23
   soldstatus $179,000

   Show marketing remark (796 chars)

   Under Construction. Are you Looking for a Brand new HOME with all of the UPGRADES INCLUDED? HERE IS A BEAUTIFUL 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath SPLIT BEDROOM HOME in a Dynamite LOCATION! Perfectly nestled in Summerfield near The Villages, Lake Weir, Shopping, Restaurants, Medical and much more. Featuring: Concrete Block and Stucco, Well and septic, 2-car Garage, Architectural shingles, Energy efficient heat pump, programmable thermostat, ceiling fans, knockdown drywall finish on the ceiling and orange peel finish on the walls, tile floors in the Foyer, Kitchen, Laundry and Bathrooms, Laminated floors in the Living Room, Dining Room and Bedrooms, tiled showers, elongated commodes and Delta chrome fixtures in the Bathrooms, wood cabinets and granite in the Kitchen and Bathrooms. The FABULOUS Stainless

8. 2019-11-13
   listed $179,000 796-char remark

   Show marketing remark (796 chars)

   Under Construction. Are you Looking for a Brand new HOME with all of the UPGRADES INCLUDED? HERE IS A BEAUTIFUL 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath SPLIT BEDROOM HOME in a Dynamite LOCATION! Perfectly nestled in Summerfield near The Villages, Lake Weir, Shopping, Restaurants, Medical and much more. Featuring: Concrete Block and Stucco, Well and septic, 2-car Garage, Architectural shingles, Energy efficient heat pump, programmable thermostat, ceiling fans, knockdown drywall finish on the ceiling and orange peel finish on the walls, tile floors in the Foyer, Kitchen, Laundry and Bathrooms, Laminated floors in the Living Room, Dining Room and Bedrooms, tiled showers, elongated commodes and Delta chrome fixtures in the Bathrooms, wood cabinets and granite in the Kitchen and Bathrooms. The FABULOUS Stainless

9. 2019-11-06
   listed $179,000
10. 2019-06-26
    soldstatus $13,000
11. 2019-06-26
    soldstatus $13,000
12. 2019-04-24
    listed $14,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,876 · $323/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,876 · $323/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,136
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,267
• − Property taxes: −$3,876
• − Insurance: −$1,274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,931
• − Management: −$1,931
• − Depreciation: −$7,409
• Taxable loss: −$6,551
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,572
• After-tax cash flow: $-537/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,318
• Household income: $66,679
• Rent vs Own: 13.2% rent · 86.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 256.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.67%
• Current HPI: 200.0792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1656.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $254,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listed $259,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-01 Rental Removed — APPFOLIO
• 2024-01-20 Listed for Rent — APPFOLIO
• 2020-01-23 Sold (MLS) $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-23 Sold (MLS) $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-13 Listed $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-06 Listed $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records
• 2019-06-26 Sold (MLS) $13,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-24 Listed $14,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+37.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,876 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.