Dickens III Plan · Elgin, TX 78621

$294,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,140 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

$41/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Dickens III floorplan is a thoughtfully designed two-story home offering 3-4 bedrooms and 2-2.5 bathrooms. The private owner's suite is tucked upstairs, creating a peaceful retreat away from the main living areas. Downstairs, a versatile flex space allows you to personalize the home with a study, playroom, or additional living area to fit your lifestyle. With its balance of open gathering spaces and private retreats, the Dickens III is designed for comfort, flexibility, and everyday living.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 5 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $294,990
• HOA & community: Association fee approximately $41.67 per month

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan; Address: 13404 Barn Chime St, Elgin, TX 78621
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2140

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Dickens III; New construction

🏗️ New construction. The $294,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $316,720.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-493 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (25.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $219,808 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.68%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $316,720
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13504 Muny Pkwy	0.13mi	3/3.0	2,160 (+1%)	1mo	$299,990	$139	87
13509 Barn Chime St	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,086 (-2%)	3mo	$319,990	$153	82
13444 Barn Chime St	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,257 (+6%)	3mo	$314,990	$140	80
13405 Barn Chime St	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,977 (-8%)	6mo	$339,990	$172	76
13708 Sierra Wind Ln	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,833 (-14%)	1mo	$254,999	$139	65
18400 Sun Haven Cv	0.21mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,343 (+10%)	4mo	$273,900	$117	62
17816 Honey Locust Ln	0.67mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,146 (+0%)	2mo	$199,999	$93	58
25605 Flora Bella Ln	0.74mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,162 (+1%)	2mo	$319,995	$148	55
18436 Windtree Ln	0.35mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,420 (+13%)	3mo	$282,000	$117	51
25604 Becky Bourne Ln	0.72mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,168 (+1%)	6mo	$399,990	$184	50
13605 Hamilton Hart Dr	0.68mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,211 (+3%)	6mo	$374,990	$170	49
13601 Hamilton Hart Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,840 (-14%)	1mo	$329,890	$179	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $141,400
• Equity at exit: $285,326

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.98×
• Total profit: $441,764
• Equity at exit: $615,317

Cash invested: $88,682 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,198 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,661
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$396 /mo · $4,751/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$41
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-493

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,823

Max offer price $245,339

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-274	-5% $-384	+0% $-493	+5% $-603	+10% $-712
Rent	-10% $-667	-5% $-580	+0% $-493	+5% $-406	+10% $-320
Rate	-1.0pp $-334	-0.5pp $-413	base $-493	+0.5pp $-575	+1.0pp $-659

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,180
• Closing costs: $9,502
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,500	$1.21	20d	1	0.09mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	24d	1	0.36mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,595	$1.38	5d	1	0.36mi
18436 Weatherby Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,000	$0.95	5d	1	0.36mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	5d	1	0.51mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	24d	1	0.54mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	18d	1	0.54mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	24d	1	0.59mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	2d	1	0.63mi
13501 Mussel Run Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	17d	1	0.73mi
13305 Banquete St Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,995	$1.17	44d	1	0.75mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	17d	1	0.76mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	24d	1	0.76mi
17812 Prairie Verbena Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2049	$2,199	$1.07	44d	1	0.87mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	15d	1	0.99mi
102 Blanco Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2450	$1,800	$0.73	44d	1	1.02mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	44d	1	1.11mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	5d	1	1.32mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	24d	1	1.32mi
722 Lavaca Loop Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$1,895	$0.91	18d	1	1.34mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	18d	1	1.35mi
19017 Romano Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,198	$0.89	5d	1	1.35mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	2d	1	1.39mi
14101 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	44d	1	1.41mi
14101 Prospector Way Unit 14101 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	24d	1	1.41mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	44d	1	1.43mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,825	$1.20	5d	1	1.44mi
23408 Tiny Moons Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$1,960	$0.98	21d	1	1.45mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,885	$1.05	5d	1	1.47mi
14141 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	44d	1	1.47mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R2 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$600	$0.30	18d	1	1.50mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R3 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$560	$0.28	22d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $41 · $492/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,990 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,990 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,990 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,990 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 499-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $294,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,377
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,741
• − Property taxes: −$4,751
• − Insurance: −$1,584
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,110
• − Management: −$2,110
• − HOA: −$492
• − Depreciation: −$9,214
• Taxable loss: −$11,625
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,790
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B