17 W Northrup Pl Unit N · Buffalo, NY 14214

$225,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,408 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1925 3,706 sqft lot $160/sqft · at area comps Est $235k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautifully well maintained home offers total peace of mind with a long list of recent capital improvements. The fresh exterior wall features a newer siding (3 years old), and newer vinyl replacement windows finished with maintenance-free aluminum-trimmed frames. Significant mechanical and structural updates include a new garage roof, a house roof under 10 years old, a full electrical upgrade completed just 2 years ago and a 5 yeas boiler. Inside, enjoy a bright and airy atmosphere with freshly painted walls and ceilings throughout. Each generously sized room is bathed in natural light, and boasts two double-hung windows in every bedroom.

Key facts

• New boiler
• New garage roof
• Newer siding

Tags

• NEWER SIDING
• NEW GARAGE ROOF
• FULL ELECTRICAL UPGRADE
• NEW BOILER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Two garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Two-story home; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Wood siding exterior; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 34 x 109

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Range hood; Exhaust fan; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Hardwood; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Baseboard heating; Hot water heating
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Separate/formal living room; Other interior features (see remarks); Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-249/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (26.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 90 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $225k implies a 341% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $165,463 (26.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.39%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $234,998
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -4.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
71 Merrimac St	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,404 (-0%)	5mo	$129,999	$93	87
133 Allenhurst Rd	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,410 (+0%)	1mo	$332,800	$236	70
32 Parkside Ct	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,292 (-8%)	1mo	$350,000	$271	68
15 Montcalm St	0.40mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,355 (-4%)	6mo	$270,000	$199	65
150 Heath St	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,232 (-12%)	1mo	$180,000	$146	59
32 Wellington Ave	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,482 (+5%)	1mo	$272,000	$184	57
29 Parkhurst Blvd	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,289 (-8%)	6mo	$165,000	$128	52
176 Lasalle Ave	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,601 (+14%)	2mo	$270,000	$169	51
430 Parker Ave	0.61mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,512 (+7%)	6mo	$300,000	$198	50
347 Lisbon Ave	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,558 (+11%)	3mo	$180,000	$116	49
253 Winspear Ave	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,584 (+12%)	6mo	$315,100	$199	43
153 Stockbridge Ave	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,248 (-11%)	3mo	$150,000	$120	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-33,085
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-10,068
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14214

• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,655 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $651/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $-21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,681

Max offer price $221,338

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $107	-5% $43	+0% $-21	+5% $-84	+10% $-148
Rent	-10% $-151	-5% $-86	+0% $-21	+5% $45	+10% $110
Rate	-1.0pp $93	-0.5pp $36	base $-21	+0.5pp $-79	+1.0pp $-138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26 Custer St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	44d	1	0.09mi
40 Lisbon Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1057	$1,500	$1.42	12d	1	0.16mi
60 Englewood Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1400	$1,650	$1.18	2d	1	0.20mi
92 Lasalle Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,150	$1.15	44d	1	0.31mi
89 Lasalle Ave Buffalo, NY	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1024	$2,291	$2.24	2d	10	0.38mi
222 Lisbon Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	44d	1	0.40mi
222 Lisbon Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	24d	1	0.40mi
263 Minnesota Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1242	$1,500	$1.21	15d	1	0.49mi
265 Lisbon Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	44d	1	0.49mi
163 Carmel Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	3d	1	0.54mi
33 Tillotson Pl Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1143	$2,095	$1.83	15d	1	0.72mi
220 Dartmouth Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	24d	1	0.75mi
627 Kenmore Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	24d	1	0.89mi
140 Parkridge Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	990	$1,500	$1.52	44d	1	0.89mi
91 Springville Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1660	$2,350	$1.42	24d	1	0.91mi
27 Henley Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,299	$1.08	15d	1	1.03mi
348 Capen Blvd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1424	$2,200	$1.54	2d	1	1.07mi
524 University Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1840	$1,600	$0.87	2d	1	1.07mi
76 Vernon Pl Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,445	$1.21	15d	1	1.12mi
76 Vernon Pl Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,595	$1.34	15d	1	1.12mi
414 Taunton Pl Unit Lowet Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1232	$1,700	$1.38	15d	1	1.14mi
189 Westminster Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1065	$1,595	$1.50	11d	1	1.21mi
97 Davidson Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	925	$1,495	$1.62	2d	1	1.29mi
307 Sterling Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1632	$1,800	$1.10	4d	1	1.32mi
151 Lamson Rd Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1382	$2,350	$1.70	18d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    listed $225,000 Active 654-char remark
16. 2009-12-14
    soldstatus $51,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $651 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,227 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,576/yr (+$131/mo · 242.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,856
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$651
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,588
• − Management: −$1,588
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$4,246
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,019
• After-tax cash flow: $770/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 21,314
• Household income: $58,228
• Rent vs Own: 57.7% rent · 42.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1820.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 31% Asian 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -282.52%
• Current HPI: 373.377
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.81%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+341.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $225,000 WNYREIS
• 2009-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $651 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.