8933 Manor Loop #105 · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34202

$219,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 996 sqft · Condo public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2001 $419/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Virtually Staged. FABULOUS LAKE VIEWS FROM THIS FIRST FLOOR CONDO IN LAKEWOOD RANCH! Village at Town Park 2 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom condo that has been freshly painted, new carpet in bedrooms, faux wood blinds, tiled Living Room. The kitchen has granite counters, stainless steel appliances, and there is a full size washer & dryer in the hallway. French door access to the front screened portch, with the DIRECT LAKEFRONT & FOUNTAIN VIEWS! Plus extra storage closet. Primary Bedroom has a large walk-n closet & Ensuite Bathroom, & extra windows. 2nd Bedroom also has a walk-in closet. Both bathrooms are upgraded & have tub/shower combo. Exra large storage closet under the

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Clubhouse
• Lake views

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• DIRECT LAKEFRONT
• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• FITNESS CENTER
• PLAYGROUND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association contact: David Daly
• Financial info: Total monthly fees: $419; Total annual fees: $5,028; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee: $419 (includes common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves, structure and grounds maintenance, management, recreational facilities, trash); Association requires approval; Association amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, playground; Community features: association-owned recreation, clubhouse, community mailbox, deed restrictions, fitness center, no truck/RV/motorcycle parking, playground, pool, sidewalks; Pets allowed with restrictions (breed and number limits)

Exterior

• Parking: Parking available on the side of the building
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Fiber optics available; High‑speed internet / broadband available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Condominium; One story; Front entrance faces the lake
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of building number 8933
• Exterior features: Covered front porch with screened area; Playground on site; Sidewalks; North-facing with lake view; Lake frontage (20 feet)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Solid surface counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Solid surface counters; Split bedroom floor plan; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry in a laundry closet; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Inside utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-252 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (20.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (5.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert Willis Elementary School (math 83% / reading 79%, grade A+, #95 of 2,144 statewide, top 5%, 765 students, 22% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 22% FRL vs 51% district-wide (28 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 497 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,396 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.91%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.2% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-40,393
• Equity at exit: $50,991

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-62,394
• Equity at exit: $51,783

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34202

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 497
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,077 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$229 /mo · $2,746/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$419
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-252

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,396

Max offer price $175,396

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8932 Manor Loop #205 Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,900	$1.76	23d	1	0.03mi
8926 Manor Loop Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1165	$1,800	$1.55	23d	2	0.03mi
8917 Manor Loop #205 Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$2,150	$1.99	23d	1	0.07mi
7411 Vista Way #203 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,800	$1.67	23d	1	0.23mi
8925 77th Ter E Lakewood Ranch, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$4,200	$4.00	15d	67	0.23mi
8858 White Sage Loop Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1064	$1,900	$1.79	3d	1	0.35mi
8828 White Sage Loop Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1092	$1,975	$1.81	3d	1	0.43mi
8809 White Sage Loop Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1064	$2,200	$2.07	11d	1	0.43mi
8808 White Sage Loop Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1092	$2,300	$2.11	23d	1	0.45mi
7350 Black Walnut Way Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1064	$1,995	$1.88	23d	1	0.50mi
7341 Black Walnut Way Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1100	$2,300	$2.09	23d	1	0.53mi
8100 Natures Way Lakewood Ranch, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1091	$1,926	$1.76	1d	19	0.75mi
8240 Lakewood Ranch Blvd Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$1,949	$1.91	3d	18	1.03mi
6325 Health Park Way Lakewood Ranch, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1114	$3,038	$2.73	3d	22	1.11mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $419 · $5,028/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $219,900 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 679-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $229,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,746 · $229/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,746 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,922
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$2,746
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,994
• − Management: −$1,994
• − HOA: −$5,028
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$6,654
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,597
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,426/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,197
• Household income: $121,659
• Rent vs Own: 20.8% rent · 79.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 574.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Current HPI: 240.7087
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.54%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+6.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $229,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-27 Rental Removed $1,675 STELLARMLS
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $1,675 STELLARMLS
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $1,695 STELLARMLS
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $1,750 STELLARMLS
• 2025-07-20 Price Changed $1,800 STELLARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed for Rent $1,900 STELLARMLS
• 2008-01-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-07 Listed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-03-04 Listed $249,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,746 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.