6537 S 15th Dr · Phoenix, AZ 85041

$259,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,133 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2002 7,618 sqft lot Est $315k · 17% under $80/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is not a Short Sale or Lender Owned. Easy to show! Beautifully kept and newly painted inside. This home is a great starter home. Large backyard to make into your own setting. Your buyers will not be dissapointed.

Key facts

• Attached bathroom
• Large backyard
• Covered patio

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• KITCHEN WITH TILE FLOORING
• ATTACHED BATHROOM
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• LARGE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 7,618 sq ft (assessor); Assessor building area source
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $99 (association provides other services—see remarks)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2; 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood frame construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Block fencing; Desert front yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Master bedroom with 3/4 bath
• Laundry & utility: Laundry details: see remarks

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $52 ($625/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Roosevelt Elementary District (4279) (urban): math 8% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #234 of 249 in AZ (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ignacio Conchos School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,084 of 1,109 statewide, top 99%, 328 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 36% district-wide (50 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 252 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $93k; list at $260k implies a 179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,031 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.86%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $314,974
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6434 S 10th Dr	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+2%)	0mo	$320,000	$278	74
5807 S 13th Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,128 (-0%)	2mo	$400,000	$355	70
904 W Saint Charles Ave	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+2%)	1mo	$320,000	$278	69
910 W St Anne Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,208 (+7%)	3mo	$349,900	$290	64
6216 S 16th Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,298 (+15%)	0mo	$357,500	$275	59
713 W Saint Charles Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,207 (+6%)	10mo	$345,000	$286	53
6614 S 18th Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,279 (+13%)	1mo	$351,000	$274	53
1832 W Lydia Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,279 (+13%)	3mo	$342,000	$267	53
1760 W Sunland Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,212 (+7%)	8mo	$315,000	$260	44
401 W Vineyard Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,240 (+9%)	6mo	$355,000	$286	41
1747 W Maldonado Rd	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+14%)	8mo	$352,000	$272	41
812 W Saint Charles Ave	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	964 (-15%)	2mo	$310,000	$322	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-45,181
• Equity at exit: $38,752

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-59,757
• Equity at exit: $22,471

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85041

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,160 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,240/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,094

Max offer price $259,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6614 S 10th Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1347	$2,200	$1.63	16d	1	0.29mi
1016 W Lydia Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,875	$1.48	11d	1	0.32mi
5926 S 12th Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1470	$2,695	$1.83	24d	1	0.42mi
6055 S 11th Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,600	$1.67	1d	7	0.42mi
916 W Carter Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,199	$1.63	14d	1	0.49mi
1807 W Carter Rd Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1376	$2,400	$1.74	1d	1	0.50mi
5636 S 12th Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1470	$2,695	$1.83	1d	1	0.58mi
6224 S 20th Gln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1289	$1,300	$1.01	12d	1	0.73mi
2050 W Southern Ave Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	907	$1,438	$1.59	3d	1	0.75mi
2050 W Southern Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	907	$1,438	$1.59	1d	1	0.75mi
915 W Bowker St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,850	$1.27	1d	1	0.75mi
6821 S Montezuma St Phoenix, AZ	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.0	1469	$1,845	$1.26	1d	11	0.85mi
5405 S 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	867	$1,570	$1.81	1d	4	0.87mi
5646 S Montezuma St Apt 9 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,150	$1.35	1d	1	0.90mi
2141 W Pecan Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1244	$1,710	$1.37	5d	1	1.05mi
5609 S Central Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	893	$1,175	$1.32	1d	6	1.25mi
40 E Sunland Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	700	$1,400	$2.00	1d	18	1.29mi
136 W Latona Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1499	$2,350	$1.57	1d	1	1.31mi
207 W Latona Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1319	$2,205	$1.67	1d	1	1.31mi
2410 W La Salle St Unit NA Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1400	$3,500	$2.50	1d	1	1.32mi
2414 W La Salle St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1232	$2,400	$1.95	16d	1	1.33mi
105 W Latona Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1499	$2,350	$1.57	1d	1	1.34mi
2440 W Bowker St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,295	$1.63	11d	1	1.35mi
2321 W Mobile Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1390	$2,220	$1.60	24d	1	1.35mi
2321 W Mobile Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1390	$2,210	$1.59	1d	1	1.35mi
300 E Jessie Owens Pkwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	916	$1,666	$1.82	1d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,900 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   listed $259,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,240 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,715 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$476/yr (+$40/mo · 38.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,924
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$1,240
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,074
• − Management: −$2,074
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$3,842
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$922
• After-tax cash flow: $1,548/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roosevelt Elementary District (4279)
• NCES district ID: 0407080
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 14% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $42,813
• Composite: 9.74/100
• National rank: #9829
• State rank: #234 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 63,862
• Household income: $75,301
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1473.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% Two or more races 28% Black 15% White 13% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 45% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -168.81%
• Current HPI: 342.4961
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.84%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+319.8% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $259,900 ARMLS
• 2012-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $93,000 Public Records
• 2012-06-18 Sold (MLS) $93,000 ARMLS
• 2012-06-06 Pending — ARMLS
• 2012-06-04 Listed $94,900 ARMLS
• 2010-05-05 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2010-04-29 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2010-04-13 Pending — ARMLS
• 2010-03-31 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2010-03-28 Pending — ARMLS
• 2010-02-04 Listed $83,500 ARMLS
• 2009-10-22 Sold (MLS) $61,000 ARMLS
• 2009-10-09 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2009-08-28 Listed $64,900 ARMLS
• 2007-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $189,000 Public Records
• 2007-02-27 Sold (MLS) $189,000 ARMLS
• 2007-01-20 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-01-17 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-01-12 Listed $187,500 ARMLS
• 2006-11-13 Listed $216,000 ARMLS
• 2004-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $138,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-31 Sold (MLS) $138,000 ARMLS
• 2004-08-03 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-06-29 Listed $140,000 ARMLS
• 2002-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $61,913 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,240 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.