4147 SE Raccoon Loop · New Port Richey East, FL 34653

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 921 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1979 6,875 sqft lot $4/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fixer Upper.

Key facts

• 6,875 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1979

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $576 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 4.3% in New Port Richey East — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#499 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 305 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $85k implies a 118% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.06%
• DSCR: 2.29
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $174,990
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4220 Revere Cir	0.69mi	2/2.0	959 (+4%)	4mo	$182,500	$190	54
4222 Revere Cir	0.69mi	2/1.0	959 (+4%)	15mo	$155,000	$162	48
7807 Hardwick Dr #111	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,025 (+11%)	1mo	$185,000	$180	46
8846 Hunter Dr	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,026 (+11%)	13mo	$289,900	$283	46
3956 Del Rio Ave	0.66mi	2/2.0	891 (-3%)	19mo	$160,000	$180	44
4043 LA Pasida Ln	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,000 (+9%)	10mo	$164,000	$164	38
4545 Weasel Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,004 (+9%)	14mo	$240,000	$239	37
7954 Avenal Loop	0.67mi	2/1.0	806 (-12%)	16mo	$235,000	$292	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $18,168
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $44,684
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34653

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 305
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,668 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$256 /mo · $3,077/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$4
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $576

Break-even live

Break-even rent $939

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8135 Brown Pelican Ave New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1089	$2,000	$1.84	5d	1	0.44mi
8930 Lazy River Loop New Port Richey, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1018	$1,640	$1.61	2d	12	0.51mi
7910 Hardwick Dr #713 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	925	$1,595	$1.72	5d	1	0.54mi
7828 Hardwick Dr #927 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,650	$1.61	5d	1	0.61mi
3952 Elvira Ct New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	957	$1,450	$1.52	22d	1	0.61mi
7911 Aden Loop New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1067	$1,785	$1.67	24d	1	0.65mi
4031 Vista Verde Dr New Port Richey, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	825	$1,669	$2.02	3d	6	0.71mi
9110 Via Recreo New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	891	$1,550	$1.74	5d	1	0.72mi
4105 La Pasida Ln New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	972	$1,750	$1.80	24d	1	0.75mi
3544 Martell St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	775	$1,600	$2.06	24d	1	0.90mi
4331 Fiji Dr New Port Richey, FL	1.0–5.0	2.0–5.0	1343	$1,479	$1.10	3d	11	1.06mi
3683 Trophy Blvd New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	923	$1,650	$1.79	5d	1	1.17mi
7425 Trouble Creek Rd New Port Richey, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	812	$1,604	$1.97	2d	15	1.20mi
9616 Midiron Ct New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	956	$1,950	$2.04	5d	1	1.22mi
3668 Trophy Blvd New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	923	$2,000	$2.17	24d	1	1.24mi
5223 Hunters Ridge Dr New Port Richey, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1128	$2,235	$1.98	22d	5	1.26mi
7418 Jenner Ave New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	11d	1	1.31mi
3832 Teeside Dr Unit 4 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	956	$1,495	$1.56	10d	1	1.34mi
3832 Teeside Dr Unit 1 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1034	$1,495	$1.45	5d	1	1.34mi
7320 Broadmoor Dr New Port Richey, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	765	$1,715	$2.24	2d	59	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $4 · $48/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-15
   remarks 12-char remark
2. 2026-06-15
   listed $85,000 Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,077 · $256/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,077 · $256/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,020
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$3,077
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,602
• − Management: −$1,602
• − HOA: −$48
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $6,033
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,448
• After-tax cash flow: $5,469/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — New Port Richey East

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #499
• US rank: #9203

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 36,086
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,945
• Household income: $49,563
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1439.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.10%
• Current HPI: 324.6519
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.92%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+117.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-15 Listed $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,077 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.