105 81st St · Lubbock, TX 79404

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1991 9,000 sqft lot Est $133k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

INVESTOR SPECIAL! Solid 3/2 Home sitting on 2 Lots! Huge fenced backyard! Central heat! Roof approx 8 years old. Some windows are dual paned. Water heater 1 year old. Siding in good shape. Seller asks for 24 hour notice for showings.

Key facts

• Dual paned windows
• Siding in good shape
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• DUAL PANED WINDOWS
• WATER HEATER 1 YEAR OLD
• SIDING IN GOOD SHAPE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Additional parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; 1 story; Fixer condition
• Construction: Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Construction materials: Unknown; Built: (not provided)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Fenced yard; Back yard; Storage (outbuilding)

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; See remarks
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Natural gas heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Laminate countertops; Aluminum window frames; Double-pane windows; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4 ($44/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 49% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.63%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $133,056
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
707 77th St	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,394 (+4%)	18mo	$137,464	$99	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.22% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $13,653
• Equity at exit: $45,765

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $47,276
• Equity at exit: $71,518

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79404

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,475 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$174 /mo · $2,091/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,470

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
110 E 82nd St Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1113	$1,150	$1.03	43d	1	0.08mi
8015 Date Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,599	$1.22	21d	1	0.22mi
8017 Date Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1382	$1,599	$1.16	13d	1	0.22mi
8011 Date Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,599	$1.22	21d	1	0.22mi
8030 Elm Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,599	$1.22	13d	1	0.26mi
7723 Date Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,599	$1.22	21d	1	0.26mi
7717 Date Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,899	$1.33	13d	1	0.28mi
7715 Date Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,599	$1.12	21d	1	0.28mi
312 E 77th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,619	$1.24	43d	1	0.30mi
7704 Elm Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,599	$1.22	13d	1	0.33mi
7702 Elm Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,600	$1.09	13d	1	0.34mi
312 E 76th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,599	$1.12	13d	1	0.34mi
320 E 76th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,599	$1.22	13d	1	0.35mi
914 82nd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	932	$900	$0.97	43d	1	0.58mi
1106 82nd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$950	$0.76	43d	1	0.65mi
1108 82nd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$950	$0.76	43d	1	0.66mi
1112 82nd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$950	$0.76	43d	1	0.68mi
1116 82nd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$950	$0.76	43d	1	0.70mi
1118 82nd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$950	$0.76	43d	1	0.71mi
1113 80th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,250	$0.87	43d	1	0.71mi
1115 80th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,250	$0.87	43d	1	0.72mi
1508 82nd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	960	$750	$0.78	43d	1	0.90mi
1512 82nd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$750	$0.83	21d	1	0.92mi
1606 82nd St Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	843	$1,580	$1.87	13d	16	1.11mi
1625 79th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1541	$1,650	$1.07	44d	1	1.11mi
1805 79th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,375	$1.07	43d	1	1.16mi
1816 75th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1516	$2,000	$1.32	21d	1	1.29mi
7006 Avenue S Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1498	$1,800	$1.20	43d	1	1.33mi
8108 Sherman Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,400	$1.07	44d	1	1.36mi
1341 65th Dr Unit C Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1000	$695	$0.69	21d	1	1.37mi
8217 Avenue U Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	873	$1,570	$1.80	13d	28	1.41mi
1921 S Loop 289 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1121	$1,100	$0.98	43d	1	1.41mi
1923 76th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$1,699	$1.05	43d	1	1.42mi
1307 61st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1073	$1,150	$1.07	13d	1	1.42mi
1927 71st St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1807	$1,600	$0.89	21d	1	1.42mi
5614 Avenue A Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1129	$695	$0.62	21d	1	1.44mi
6130 Avenue P Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1387	$1,100	$0.79	43d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 236-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $99,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,091 · $174/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,091 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,695
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$2,091
• − Insurance: −$5,614
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,416
• − Management: −$1,416
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable loss: −$1,266
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$304
• After-tax cash flow: $348/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,529
• Household income: $51,630
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 366.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Black 22% White 20% Two or more races 17% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.22%
• Current HPI: 163.854
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $99,000 LARMLS

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,091 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.