10140 Arrow · Littlerock, CA 93543

$298,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1989 4.99 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Escape to your own private retreat in the desirable Juniper Hills area of Littlerock! Situated on 5 fully usable acres, this off-grid property offers the perfect blend of independence, functionality, and wide-open space. The approximately 1,600 sq. ft. home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with comfortable living areas and endless potential to make it your own. Designed for self-sufficient living, the property is equipped with solar power, a generator backup system, and a private well. The roof was replaced approximately 5 years ago, providing added peace of mind. Zoned LCA11, the expansive acreage offers flexibility for animals, agricultural use, recreational vehicles, workshops, equipm

Key facts

• Fully usable acres
• Private well
• Solar power

Tags

• FULLY USABLE ACRES
• OFF-GRID PROPERTY
• SOLAR POWER
• GENERATOR BACKUP SYSTEM
• PRIVATE WELL
• REPLACED ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Horse trails and foothills in the community

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic (type unknown)
• Home design: Single-story; Entry on the front; Assessor records used for year built and living area
• Construction: Certified 433a foundation
• Exterior features: Manufactured house; No pool; Solar energy generation; Rectangular lot; Agricultural and horse property characteristics; Has a view

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling
• Interior features: Front entry; One-level home; Wood stove insert fireplace; Has cooling (central)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 43/100 on livability (#1,355 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Keppel Union Elementary (rural): math 23% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,089 of 1,400 in CA (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pearblossom Elementary (393 students, 76% FRL); Keppel Academy (233 students, 68% FRL); Littlerock High (1,565 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 239 active listings in the ZIP; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 2→4/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,389 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.39%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-37,944
• Equity at exit: $44,567

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-19,918
• Equity at exit: $25,843

Cash invested: $83,692 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93543

• Home prices YoY: -28.2%
• Active inventory: 239
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,464 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,567
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,051/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,253

Max offer price $298,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $336	-5% $251	+0% $167	+5% $82	+10% $-2
Rent	-10% $-28	-5% $70	+0% $167	+5% $264	+10% $362
Rate	-1.0pp $317	-0.5pp $243	base $167	+0.5pp $89	+1.0pp $11

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,725
• Closing costs: $8,967
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $298,900 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $298,900 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $298,900 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $299,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $365,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $365,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $365,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $365,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $365,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    listed $365,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,051 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,272 · $189/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,221/yr (+$102/mo · 116.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 2 d/yr ≥94°F today · 4 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,567
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,743
• − Property taxes: −$1,051
• − Insurance: −$1,494
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,365
• − Management: −$2,365
• − Depreciation: −$8,695
• Taxable loss: −$3,148
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$755
• After-tax cash flow: $2,758/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Keppel Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619440
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,099
• Composite: 27.26/100
• National rank: #12432
• State rank: #1089 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Littlerock

• Score: 43/100
• State rank: #1355
• US rank: #26951

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,217

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 23% White 20% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 69%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Spanish 54% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -164.77%
• Current HPI: 419.0801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $365,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,051 · +24.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.