The Waterloo (175E) Plan · Kyle, TX 78640

$254,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,755 sqft · SingleFamily · 142 Days on market

Fair condition ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

An open concept first floor makes this home perfect for conversation and entertainment. Upstairs, the versatile loft is perfect for reading, gaming, or a home office setup.

Key facts

• Versatile loft
• 2 parking spots
• Listed 142 days

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FIRST FLOOR
• VERSATILE LOFT

🏗️ New construction. The $254,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $317,591.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $255k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-620 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blanco Vista El (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 731 students, 58% FRL); Laura B Wallace Middle (math 31% / reading 34%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 789 students, 53% FRL); Lehman H S (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,120 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1820 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $199,369 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.36%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $317,591
• List price: $254,990
• Delta: -19.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
221 Alpha	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,664 (-5%)	1mo	$260,000	$156	64
145 Fossil	0.16mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,012 (+15%)	2mo	$338,840	$168	62
271 Texas Agate Dr	0.22mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,012 (+15%)	0mo	$349,990	$174	60
501 Sormonne Loop	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,645 (-6%)	2mo	$267,990	$163	54
507 Sormonne Loop	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,815 (+3%)	3mo	$276,990	$153	54
461 Sormonne Loop	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,815 (+3%)	1mo	$287,990	$159	54
491 Sormonne Loop	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,815 (+3%)	3mo	$284,990	$157	53
158 Meuse Ln	0.70mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,879 (+7%)	1mo	$261,999	$139	50
570 Sormonne Loop	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,879 (+7%)	3mo	$253,490	$135	50
317 Ames Cv	0.67mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,969 (+12%)	2mo	$249,990	$127	42
356 Discovery	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,934 (+10%)	3mo	$279,000	$144	41
483 Sormonne Loop	0.69mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,966 (+12%)	1mo	$295,990	$151	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-96,750
• Equity at exit: $47,354

10-year hold

• IRR: -66.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.77×
• Total profit: $-157,535
• Equity at exit: $27,459

Cash invested: $88,925 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1820
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,994 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,665
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$397 /mo · $4,764/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-620

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,778

Max offer price $227,907

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-400	-5% $-510	+0% $-620	+5% $-730	+10% $-839
Rent	-10% $-777	-5% $-699	+0% $-620	+5% $-541	+10% $-462
Rate	-1.0pp $-460	-0.5pp $-539	base $-620	+0.5pp $-702	+1.0pp $-786

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,398
• Closing costs: $9,528
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
310 Fossil Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$2,000	$1.25	6d	1	0.26mi
185 Voss Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,800	$1.31	13d	1	0.45mi
232 Voss Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,895	$1.29	6d	1	0.49mi
384 Discovery Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2080	$1,995	$0.96	45d	1	0.65mi
141 Opal Ln Kyle, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	886	$2,000	$2.26	0d	92	0.66mi
376 Musgrav Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,988	$1.35	18d	1	0.70mi
376 Musgrav Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,890	$1.28	0d	1	0.70mi
349 Zarya Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2089	$6,200	$2.97	19d	1	0.71mi
265 Garner Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1551	$2,250	$1.45	45d	1	0.76mi
190 Sormonne Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	25d	1	0.76mi
265 Vortex Pass Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	2467	$2,595	$1.05	19d	1	0.80mi
208 Discovery Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1893	$2,025	$1.07	45d	1	0.80mi
208 Discovery Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1893	$1,895	$1.00	0d	1	0.80mi
184 Unity Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	1704	$2,000	$1.17	45d	1	0.82mi
125 Voyager Cv Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,800	$1.22	45d	1	0.84mi
147 Otter Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$1,850	$1.14	14d	1	0.85mi
591 Avre Loop Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1950	$2,200	$1.13	25d	1	0.88mi
149 River Rise Rd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1896	$1,950	$1.03	25d	1	0.88mi
157 Mammoth Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1607	$1,895	$1.18	25d	1	0.88mi
148 River Rise Rd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1622	$1,800	$1.11	45d	1	0.89mi
141 Everglades Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2179	$2,000	$0.92	45d	1	0.93mi
149 Biscayne Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,900	$1.06	19d	1	0.94mi
366 Silver Springs Bnd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1909	$2,145	$1.12	5d	1	0.97mi
290 Silver Glen Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2085	$2,350	$1.13	19d	1	1.02mi
343 Silver Glen Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1913	$1,895	$0.99	45d	1	1.02mi
195 Salt Springs Rd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,100	$1.16	19d	1	1.03mi
130 Yellowstone Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2507	$2,900	$1.16	6d	1	1.04mi
121 Yellowstone Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1723	$2,200	$1.28	25d	1	1.05mi
271 Alamito Ave Kyle, TX	4.0	3.5	1923	$2,100	$1.09	16d	1	1.05mi
149 Red Sun Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,850	$1.30	12d	1	1.12mi
106 Lakeview Ct Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1765	$1,795	$1.02	19d	1	1.12mi
112 Lakeview Ct Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1765	$1,795	$1.02	6d	1	1.12mi
185 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1463	$1,700	$1.16	16d	1	1.17mi
155 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,695	$1.34	25d	1	1.17mi
155 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,695	$1.34	6d	1	1.17mi
155 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,495	$1.18	16d	1	1.17mi
149 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,495	$1.18	16d	1	1.17mi
126 Avre Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,700	$1.38	45d	1	1.18mi
134 Agua Azul Bnd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2500	$2,499	$1.00	45d	1	1.20mi
1689 Woodlands Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1515	$1,850	$1.22	45d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $254,990 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,990 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,990 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,990 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,990 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $254,990 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $234,990 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $234,990 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $234,990 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $234,990 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $234,990 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $234,990 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $234,990 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $234,990 Active 121 DOM
15. 2026-04-22
    price $234,990 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    An open concept first floor makes this home perfect for conversation and entertainment. Upstairs, the versatile loft is perfect for reading, gaming, or a home office setup.

16. 2026-03-26
    price $239,990 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    An open concept first floor makes this home perfect for conversation and entertainment. Upstairs, the versatile loft is perfect for reading, gaming, or a home office setup.

17. 2026-03-12
    price $259,990 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    An open concept first floor makes this home perfect for conversation and entertainment. Upstairs, the versatile loft is perfect for reading, gaming, or a home office setup.

18. 2026-03-05
    price $264,990 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    An open concept first floor makes this home perfect for conversation and entertainment. Upstairs, the versatile loft is perfect for reading, gaming, or a home office setup.

19. 2026-02-12
    price $276,990 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    An open concept first floor makes this home perfect for conversation and entertainment. Upstairs, the versatile loft is perfect for reading, gaming, or a home office setup.

20. 2026-01-30
    listed $244,990 Active 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    An open concept first floor makes this home perfect for conversation and entertainment. Upstairs, the versatile loft is perfect for reading, gaming, or a home office setup.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,924
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,790
• − Property taxes: −$4,764
• − Insurance: −$1,588
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,914
• − Management: −$1,914
• − Depreciation: −$9,239
• Taxable loss: −$13,284
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,188
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,249/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires significant repairs and updates across multiple systems, including major work on the kitchen, bathrooms, exterior, and interior. Immediate updates to paint, windows, and HVAC would significantly improve its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen — No photos of the kitchen
• Major Bathrooms — No photos of the bathrooms
• Major Exterior — No photos of the exterior
• Major Flooring — No photos of the flooring
• Major Interior walls/paint — No photos of the interior walls/paint
• Major Windows — No photos of the windows
• Major Foundation/structure — No photos of the foundation/structure
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No photos of the HVAC/mechanicals
• Major Landscaping/curb appeal — No photos of the landscaping/curb appeal

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Clean windows — Clean windows improve natural light and curb appeal
• Both Inspect HVAC system — A functional HVAC system ensures comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen · No photos of the kitchen	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathrooms · No photos of the bathrooms	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior · No photos of the exterior	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · No photos of the flooring	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls/paint · No photos of the interior walls/paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · No photos of the windows	Major	$15,000–50,000
Foundation/structure · No photos of the foundation/structure	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No photos of the HVAC/mechanicals	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping/curb appeal · No photos of the landscaping/curb appeal	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 9 items		$135,000–450,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Clean windows — Clean windows improve natural light and curb appeal ↑
• Both Inspect HVAC system — A functional HVAC system ensures comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kyle

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #3993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kyle, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 77,531
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2552.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $234,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $239,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $259,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $264,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $276,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-30 Listed $244,990 Zillow