4539 Spire Run · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211

$359,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,501 sqft · Land · 36 Days on market

Built 2026 4,400 sqft lot $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Pre-Construction. To be built. Welcome to Avalon Woods at Lakewood Ranch, single-family homes with no CDD and low fees. Your new home will be just minutes from endless options for shopping, dining, entertainment, schools, healthcare, nature, and recreation. Top-rated Manatee County schools. Parks and recreation programs including fitness, youth sports, arts and entertainment. There’s so much to do here! The Century single-family home combines convenience and style. Park in your 2-car garage and enter through your laundry room. Your wide-open floorplan features a dining area overlooking your gourmet kitchen. A large center island is perfect for gathering with friends and family, or set

Key facts

• No cdd
• Low fees
• Minutes from schools

Tags

• NO CDD
• LOW FEES
• MINUTES FROM SHOPPING
• MINUTES FROM DINING
• MINUTES FROM ENTERTAINMENT
• MINUTES FROM SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply; Home warranty included; Green features: HVAC filter MERV 8+, No/Low VOC flooring and paint/finish, ventilation, energy-efficient appliances, HVAC, lighting, thermostat, windows, reclaimed irrigation and low-flow fixtures
• Financial info: Total monthly fees shown as $54 ($648 annually)
• HOA & community: RYAN HOMES association with monthly fee of $54 (association approval required); Community amenities: dog park, park, playground, street lights; Pets allowed with number limit

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (19x19) with garage door opener; Driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; Pre-construction (projected completion Oct 31, 2026); Home faces west
• Construction: Block, stucco and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction; Builder: Ryan Homes (model: CENTURY)
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Hurricane shutters; Rain gutters; Sprinkler (metered); Sidewalks; Paved roads; Wooded vegetation; Florida-friendly/native landscaping; Drip irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Stone counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; ENERGY STAR qualified windows; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Inside utility

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-276 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $320k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $287k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: B.D. Gullett Elementary School (math 78% / reading 73%, grade A, #211 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,121 students, 20% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 21% FRL vs 51% district-wide (29 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 65% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 1154 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($349k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $286,751 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.29%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-84,270
• Equity at exit: $53,676

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-128,221
• Equity at exit: $31,125

Cash invested: $100,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34211

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 1154
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,868 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$450 /mo · $5,400/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$602
• Net cashflow: $-276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,217

Max offer price $319,983

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,998
• Closing costs: $10,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4740 Old Blush St Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1431	$2,300	$1.61	24d	1	0.22mi
14423 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1347	$2,200	$1.63	24d	1	0.22mi
14452 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1405	$2,295	$1.63	24d	1	0.24mi
14448 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1352	$2,300	$1.70	24d	1	0.24mi
14440 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1347	$1,995	$1.48	20d	1	0.24mi
14051 Crimson Ave Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1850	$2,500	$1.35	24d	1	0.24mi
14428 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1347	$2,300	$1.71	21d	1	0.25mi
14424 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1405	$2,500	$1.78	3d	1	0.25mi
14223 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1352	$2,300	$1.70	16d	1	0.31mi
14072 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1347	$2,290	$1.70	24d	1	0.41mi
4708 Motta Ct Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1920	$12,000	$6.25	16d	1	0.42mi
14052 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1405	$2,395	$1.70	16d	1	0.43mi
4755 Motta Ct Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1678	$4,200	$2.50	16d	1	0.50mi
15018 Oxford Grey Dr Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$5,500	$2.71	24d	1	0.92mi
5210 Coral Reef Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$3,975	$1.81	24d	1	0.95mi
5161 Coral Reef Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$4,000	$1.82	24d	1	0.99mi
15161 Serene Shores Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1840	$3,800	$2.07	24d	1	1.00mi
13737 Messina Loop Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$4,750	$3.11	24d	2	1.02mi
14736 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1700	$3,000	$1.76	16d	1	1.02mi
13725 Messina Loop #201 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$2,900	$1.90	24d	1	1.03mi
14776 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1879	$4,500	$2.39	24d	1	1.03mi
13732 Messina Loop #201 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$2,775	$1.82	16d	1	1.04mi
13711 Messina Loop #104 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$2,495	$1.63	24d	1	1.05mi
5225 Blue Crush St Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1849	$5,000	$2.70	24d	1	1.05mi
14753 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1879	$2,600	$1.38	10d	1	1.05mi
14775 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1879	$2,600	$1.38	20d	1	1.06mi
13711 Messina Loop #203 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$3,200	$2.09	16d	1	1.06mi
13823 Messina Loop Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$2,950	$1.93	24d	2	1.06mi
13605 Messina Loop #104 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1632	$2,200	$1.35	19d	1	1.07mi
13605 Messina Loop #104 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$4,400	$2.88	20d	1	1.07mi
13605 Messina Loop Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$3,450	$2.26	24d	2	1.07mi
13703 Messina Loop #102 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$2,750	$1.80	24d	1	1.07mi
13720 Messina Loop Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$4,750	$3.11	24d	2	1.08mi
13710 Messina Loop #203 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$3,200	$2.09	24d	1	1.10mi
14945 Sabiki LOOP Lakewood Ranch, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	984	$2,425	$2.46	2d	28	1.10mi
15035 Sunny Day Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1880	$2,950	$1.57	24d	1	1.11mi
13604 Messina Loop #103 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$6,000	$3.93	3d	1	1.12mi
15716 Barefoot Beach Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2027	$7,500	$3.70	24d	1	1.13mi
14370 Florida 64 Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$2,636	$2.63	3d	59	1.15mi
15126 Sunny Day Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1879	$2,700	$1.44	24d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $359,990 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $359,990 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $359,990 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $359,990 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $359,990 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $359,990 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $359,990 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $359,990 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $359,990 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $359,990 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $359,990 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $359,990 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $359,990 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $359,990 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    listed $359,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,410
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,165
• − Property taxes: −$5,400
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,753
• − Management: −$2,753
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$10,472
• Taxable loss: −$9,581
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,299
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,018/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood Ranch, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,980
• Household income: $119,911
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 815.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.84%
• Current HPI: 265.946
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $359,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid